Disturbance 5 should become a Caribbean hurricane 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144923.shtml?cone#contents

 

 

 

---

Disturbance 5 should become a Caribbean hurricane 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144923.shtml?cone#contents

Puerto Rico in the firing line (will Trump be more generous this time?) followed by Dominican Republic. With luck, Caz won't be troubled on her holiday in Jamaica.

 

 

 

 

---

 

Puerto Rico in the firing line (will Trump be more generous this time?) followed by Dominican Republic. With luck, Caz won't be troubled on her holiday in Jamaica.

 

 

 

 

Now named Dorien. Looks like a direct hit for Puerto Rico but not expected to be strong, maybe Cat 2

 

---

 Now named Dorien. Looks like a direct hit for Puerto Rico but not expected to be strong, maybe Cat 2

 

Yes, development restricted by dry air from Sahara. Nice graphic to show that

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

Some models don't even develop into a hurricane

 

 

Meanwhile, the disturbance off Florida is given a high chance of becoming a fully-fledged storm, and then running NE offshore up the US coast.

 

---

Dorian surviving the layer of dry air against the odds, and now thought likely to make hits on Barbados, Puerto Rico (as a hurricane), Bahamas and maybe Florida (by then as a storm), even passing over Florida in some models and re-juvenating in the Gulf.

The disturbance off the east coast of the US is now TD6, likely to become storm Erin, but not making landfall until it gets up to Newfoundland

---

TD6 is now officially Erin and scooting up the coast to Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland.

Dorian is giving the forecast models headaches, as they struggle to allow for the persistence of the storm despite the presence of much mid-level dry air.. It was due to be a cat 1 hurricane as it reached Puerto Rico, now looks as if it will stay at Tropical Storm level (but nevertheless, lots of flash flooding); it was due to be a storm when it reached Florida but now NHC has it as a hurricane on landfall. 

There seems to be a consensus that if (note the 'if') it can survive crossing the Antilles with its core intact, it will encounter favourable conditions for intensification

---

Latest updates has Dorian being a major hurricane as it approaches Florida coast.

The worry here ( major ) is a track similar to Katrina....

Latest updates has Dorian being a major hurricane as it approaches Florida coast.

It now has a clear run across warm seas with values at least initially >75kJ/sq cm, a value associated with rapid intensification (see fig 3 in https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Slams-Virgin-Islands-Likely-Approach-Florida-Major-Hurricane?cm_ven=cat6-widget) . Dorian has a history of exceeding expectations so the 31% chance quoted of it reaching cat 4 off Florida seems reasonable.

Track now seems confirmed to cross Florida - even yesterday some models had it doing a swift turn to the north - but a wide scatter as to exactly where. If it takes the most southerly option, this will become the Trump hurricane, with a direct hit on Mar a Lago!

---

  If it takes the most southerly option, this will become the Trump hurricane, with a direct hit on Mar a Lago!

Now that would be nice

Dorian strengthening as we speak. Hope Puerto Rico is not too badly damaged

---

latest advisory upgrades intensity and Dorian will hit central Florida as a Cat 3 at least

 

---

General agreement on intensity around the cat 3/4 level, but still a lot of uncertainty over the track once it approaches Florida ; some models still have it crossing Florida, but an increasing number have it stalling and creating havoc along the coast rather like hurricane Florence did in the Carolinas 2 years ago. Dorian's remnants do indeed appear on the North Atlantic GFS and ECM charts in a week or so's time.

---

Latest NHC guidance has high end Cat 4 landfall almost directly over Trump's mansion

A few days ago he was mocking the Mayor of San Juan on twitter, now the same storm has doubled in size and heading for his house. 

Maybe there is a God after all

---

A nice tropical thunder storm here yesterday afternoon and possibly another brewing now, it’s teatime here in Jamaica and it would be lovely to see lightning at night. Otherwise, we’ve had sunshine and heat so far.  Hope it stays that way for a few more days until we’re home. Keeping an eye on this thread though, so thanks to all who post. 

---

Dorian now a cat 4

Some models now say it will make cat 5 - not impossible as Dorian keeps exceeding expectations. Track now firming up on turning north as soon as it touches the Florida coast, and running up that coast so as to cause maximum damage. Given the amount of property development, expect big financial losses but buildings sufficiently robust to prevent major loss of life.

IIRC, this will be the first hurricane to hit the main populated area in Florida since 2004 (Michael 2018 hit the Panhandle and Irma in 2016 hit the Keys) which will come as a nasty shock to property developers and Floridans, some of whom were captured on TV a few years back saying that a shift in climate meant that  Florida had become immune to hurricanes.

 

---

That's tempting fate isn't it. Are the remnants of the storm likely to hit UK next week?

---

Both GFS and ECM as you say Dew having it running up the coastline all the way from Florida up to North Carolina, so a massive impact potentially. Florida actually in terms of the whole state, both inland and coastal may come off a bit better than the original track which had it over central Fl for a couple of days, with huge rainfall totals, but still...

In terms of here briggsy6, both ECM and GFS take it further north than here, the GFS has it hitting Iceland, although the ECM brings it further south so would impact the northern part of the UK to some extent, but draw up warm SW's. All that though is out at 240h or so, so room for much change in the track.

---

Some models now say it will make cat 5 - not impossible as Dorian keeps exceeding expectations. Track now firming up on turning north as soon as it touches the Florida coast, and running up that coast so as to cause maximum damage. Given the amount of property development, expect big financial losses but buildings sufficiently robust to prevent major loss of life.

IIRC, this will be the first hurricane to hit the main populated area in Florida since 2004 (Michael 2018 hit the Panhandle and Irma in 2016 hit the Keys) which will come as a nasty shock to property developers and Floridans, some of whom were captured on TV a few years back saying that a shift in climate meant that  Florida had become immune to hurricanes.

 

There have been a few systems that affected Florida since then (Wilma in 2005) springs to mind but is often overlooked due to events earlier in the season. Matthew (2007) came very close and was on a not dissimilar track (in terms of Dorian’s projected Florida track rather than before then).

Dorian is certainly a storm that needs to be monitored very closely given its potential.

---

Latest track consensus keeps Dorian offshore of Florida. The eastward track corrections may continue but the UKMET ENS mean and several GFS and ECM ensemble members still have Dorian making landfall in Florida. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085012_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png