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Online Brian Gaze  
#1 Posted : 27 January 2019 08:28:41(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Posts: 46,541

In the short term the forecasts will be on the day to day risk of snow. In the longer term it's all eyes on whether the milder signal some of the raw output is picked up by the agencies. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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Offline Gooner  
#2 Posted : 27 January 2019 08:53:47(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

For MBY

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Online Gavin D  
#3 Posted : 27 January 2019 09:29:34(UTC)
Gavin D

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To answer the question from tallyho_83 in the locked thread the BBC forecaster was Alina Jenkins
Offline Whiteout  
#4 Posted : 27 January 2019 10:02:28(UTC)
Whiteout

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 2,858
Location: South Oxon

Warnings out 

Home - South Oxon

Work - West Oxon

Winter 2018/2019

Snow falling days - 4

Snow lying days - 7

Offline nsrobins  
#5 Posted : 27 January 2019 10:13:24(UTC)
nsrobins

Rank: Advanced Member

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Location: South Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Whiteout Go to Quoted Post

Warnings out 

Which pretty much agree with my forecast issued earlier. At this stage I am not expecting any snow for coastal and low lying areas of Dorset and Hampshire from this particular system. Parameters are simply the wrong side of marginal for down here.

Anywhere above say Salisbury/Winchester/Andover may well fair better.

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Online Gavin D  
#6 Posted : 27 January 2019 10:58:23(UTC)
Gavin D

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Weatheronline's latest monthly forecast

Valid from 01/02 to 28/02 2019

Issued: Saturday 26th January 2019
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Chilly overall, mixed with risk of rain, sleet and snow, milder later

Chilly conditions are expected to prevail for most of February. There is a risk of rain, sleet and snow with low pressure being close to the south. Conditions may become milder later in the month as low pressure retreats to the west and the flow becomes more southerly.

*1/2/19 - 7/2/19*

Chilly start to month. Risk of rain, sleet and snow. Windy at times. Coolest in east.

*8/2/19 - 14/2/19*

Higher pressure builds to the east. Flow becomes more easterly. Colder, frosty north. Risk sleet & snow in south.

*15/2/19 - 21/2/19*

Low over southern UK. High to north. Staying chilly to cold. Risk of rain, sleet and snow. Highest snow risk north.

*22/2/19 - 28/2/19*

Perhaps milder as low pressure retreats west. Drier in the east. Wet to the west.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Offline tallyho_83  
#7 Posted : 27 January 2019 11:06:58(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
To answer the question from tallyho_83 in the locked thread the BBC forecaster was Alina Jenkins

 

Thanks ! haha" her hand gestures:

BBC forecast now has this low a little further north for Tuesday and shows quite a large part of England and Wales getting either a lot of rain or a lot of snow or a sleety mixture of all as it moves across the country and she did go on to say that this low keeps toing and froing!'  

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 27 January 2019 11:08:49(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline jhall  
#8 Posted : 27 January 2019 11:35:36(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Thanks ! haha" her hand gestures:

BBC forecast now has this low a little further north for Tuesday and shows quite a large part of England and Wales getting either a lot of rain or a lot of snow or a sleety mixture of all as it moves across the country and she did go on to say that this low keeps toing and froing!'  

The Met Office now have a weather warning out for this, covering much of SE England, East Anglia and the East Midlands.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Cranleigh, Surrey
Offline Jim-55  
#9 Posted : 27 January 2019 11:46:26(UTC)
Jim-55

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Location: Frome

Originally Posted by: Whiteout Go to Quoted Post

Warnings out 

My patch has just scraped into the warning area, fingers crossed.

Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
Online Gavin D  
#10 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:23:55(UTC)
Gavin D

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Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.go.../public/weather/forecast

User is suspended until 24/10/2019 21:28:32(UTC) Solar Cycles  
#11 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:28:32(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Looks at model output scratches head and gives out a big sigh.
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#12 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:40:54(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Meto still All In on the cold.

 

Offline tallyho_83  
#13 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:48:36(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,454
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

See so this is the issue I have with the Met Office because the 2nd part 15 to 30 day updated text goes on to say that cold or very cold is likely to dominate? etc and to use the term likely it's as if they are more confident than in the first period because the first period they say there is uncertainty and a low chance that the winds will turn east or north easterly - and this would mean winds turn easterly or north easterly by 7th 8/9/ or 10th Feb? (towards the end!)

See what I mean? It's such a confusing and conflicting picture and this is the MET OFFICE and they should be more reliable than any models we have seen that keep flip flopping each run, although now they are trending milder on the whole as seen by latest 06z ensembles.

Edited by user 27 January 2019 12:53:07(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#14 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:48:42(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

This place should be buzzing because that really is extraordinarily cold and snowy outlook. But the model output is looking much more average after this week. Very odd.

 

Offline tallyho_83  
#15 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:49:41(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,454
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Meto still All In on the cold.

 

That means the 12z run will go milder along with the ensembles then!  - seeing as the shorter range models like GFS hasn't been in line with the Met Office updates throughout this winter thus far.

Edited by user 27 January 2019 12:51:05(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Online doctormog  
#16 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:51:08(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 68,987

If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.

Online Brian Gaze  
#17 Posted : 27 January 2019 12:53:49(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,541

Met Office forecast is what some people here would refer to as an "upgrade". Ultra winter but will it finally arrive? 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline nsrobins  
#18 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:00:50(UTC)
nsrobins

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,885
Location: South Hampshire

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.

As you know I’m a big advocate of the UKM but I too am puzzled. What I expect given current output and the past four weeks of routine delays in the script is much more uncertainty. They really do believe in a much colder pattern being more likely than any other type. Of course we’ll know for sure by the end of Feb! 😎

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline Gooner  
#19 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:05:11(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 42,226
Man

Its a great read and keeps us Coldies clinging on BUT even I find it odd@ Brian , give them a bell and ask what they are seeing 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Online doctormog  
#20 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:05:27(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,987

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

 

As you know I’m a big advocate of the UKM but I too am puzzled. What I expect given current output and the past four weeks of routine delays in the script is much more uncertainty. They really do believe in a much colder pattern being more likely than any other type. Of course we’ll know for sure by the end of Feb! 😎

I wonder if the longer term section (16-30 days) has not really been updated, barring minor tweaks and will get a update in the next day or two to increase the uncertainty. The 6-15 day sections seems fair enough based on a meta analysis of the current and recent model output.

As you say though the only thing for certain is that we will know in 5 weeks!

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