Met Office Hadley      6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.22c.   Anomaly      -0.70c.

Netweather                6.85c.   Anomaly      -0.06c.

 

Peasedown St John     7.0c.     Anomaly      -0.1c.        

Flatline CET, though it will tumble a bit over 28-30 November.  I don't think it will finish below 6. 

It is going to be much lower than that. My latest estimate is 5.63C which may end up being a bit low. But we should be well below 6C. Could be nearly 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean which is in the very cold category. 

Likely to be the coldest November since 2010 and the second coldest since 1993. Fifth coldest since 1970. 

When I read some of the comments in the MO thread it is clear that a number of people will never be happy unless we go into another ice age. You certainly would not think we are probably experiencing the fifth coldest November in 46 years.

 

 

Hi GW,

I've been rather surprised that the provisional CET has been holding up so well because it has felt like quite a cold month to me.

Met Office Hadley       6.4c.    Anomaly   -0.3c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                    6.16c.   Anomaly   -0.76c.

Netweather                 6.75c.   Anomaly   -0.16c.

Peasedown St John    7.0c.     Anomaly    -1.2c.     

It's a bit lower than I'd like and I can't see it going up. Never mind. 

I know it's pm predictions again for December but I'll wait until the thread opens with details of December averages. 

Met Office Hadley       6.3c.    Anomaly    -0.3c.

Metcheck                    6.14c.  Anomaly    -0.78c.

Netweather                 6.74c.  Anomaly    -0.17c.

Peasedown St John     7.0c.   Anomaly    -1.2c.

Met Office Hadley        6.3c.    Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                     5.98c.   Anomaly    -0.94c.

Netweather                  6.69c.   Anomaly    -0.22c.

Peasedown St John      6.9c.    Anomaly     -1.3c. 

Could be some particularly low CET returns for the last 3 days of November with some severe frosts on the cards. Possibly daily CETs close to freezing on the cards?

Met Office Hadley      6.2c.    Anomaly      -0.3c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                   5.80c.   Anomaly     -1.12c.

Netweather                6.48c.   Anomaly     -0.43c.

Peasedown St John    6.7c. Anomaly      -1.7c.

My calculations give a final figure of 5.49C. That might turn out to be a bit low but it has been a cold month, potentially around 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean.

My calculations give a final figure of 5.49C. That might turn out to be a bit low but it has been a cold month, potentially around 1.5C below the 1981-2010 mean.

That would mean that all bar one person guessed way too high! Well done to Stormchaser. There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

That would mean that all bar one person guessed way too high! Well done to Stormchaser. There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

Well, I was almost closest - but thanks anyway!

Unless of course the precise figure turns out to be 5.55*C in which case it will be a four-way tie 

A number of the long-range models got it very wrong this month, predicting above-average temps. Glad I ignored them in favour of the hints of blocking working out okay for cold surface conditions.

Still a fair bit of luck involved in landing it close, of course!

1962 had a Nov CET of 5.5... 

There's got to be a reasonable chance of December finishing higher than November.

Don't say that (given what my Dec CET guess is)

Believe it or not, for my side of Manchester, November 2016 has actually finished with an average colder than that of November 2010.

November 2010: 4.65C
November 2016: 4.55C

Must be due to the Failsworth frost hollow allowing some cold nights to occur.

 

Well, I was almost closest - but thanks anyway!

Unless of course the precise figure turns out to be 5.55*C in which case it will be a four-way tie 

 

Funnily enough, the final answer was 5.55, so congrats to the four of you!

Yep,thats me out of the running now! Its quite remarkable how the cet has dropped over 10c in 2 months,just goes to show how this autumn(October&November) has been so so different to the usual uk fare during this period.Its been a long time since the previous one like this.

And November 2016 has turned out 4C colder than both November and December 2015.  It also looks like November 2016 has been the second coldest one of the century so far, behind only 2010.