How all this affects the competition is going to be interesting

How all this affects the competition is going to be interesting

I shall be dropping out of the table for the first time ever I think!

We have our first sub 15c August since 1993

14.9

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

How all this affects the competition is going to be interesting

I shall be dropping out of the table for the first time ever I think!

Give over. Haven't you already given a September forecast/guess?

How all this affects the competition is going to be interesting

I shall be dropping out of the table for the first time ever I think!

 

Give over. Haven't you already given a September forecast/guess?

I'll still be entering the competition of course, but I'll be leaving the league table this month, I think. Such has been the terrible run of guesses I've had this year.

July left me at number 50 of 57, so my position is precarious to say the least!

CET competition update coming tomorrow evening.

For now here are the charts for August and Summer.

Coldest August since 1993. The maximum CET was especially cold with an anomaly of -1.64C. In fact the 2014 maximum CET for August was only a fraction above 1993 and was the equal 37th coldest on record. Only 1985 and 1986 have been significantly colder in recent times.

The summer CET only ended up 0.35C above the 1971-2000 mean and only a fraction above the 1981-2010 mean due to the cool August. So overall nothing special at all. It was the 78th warmest summer in the 356 year CET history, equal with 1999 and just fractionally ahead of 2010. 2013 was much warmer.

Thanks GW, August certainly brought Summer 2014 back in line with the 30 year average.

Annual CET competition update

Here are the tables for August. Darren S is back at the top of the table. The top two still have a good lead over the rest but it is quite tight behind them.

The errors for August were easily the biggest of the year. Everybody was way too high. But this competition is all relative and there were a few people who managed to make significant progress up the table this month. Notably wallaw, up 12 to 13th, sussex snow magnet up 14 to 28th and Quantum, cowman and rickm who all climb 10.

A few going in the other direction in a big way including garybournemouth down 14, Snow Hoper down 12 and Twister down 11.

There are still 4 months to go so plenty of time for things to change significantly.

Thanks as always GW

Thanks GW. 

Thanks GW for your continuing efforts

Looks like August has opened things up a bit.

Thanks everyone

Interesting August stats from the Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/august

Although the maximum CET was the coldest since 1993, the highest temperature of the month was higher than in August 2010 although still disappointing.

Maximum temperature in the UK was 27.2C at St James Park on the 7th

In August 2010 the maximum temperature was just 26.7C at Lowestoft on the 20th.

Chart of the month - grass frost days anomalies
Parts of Hampshire, Dorset, Wiltshire and up towards the Bristol area in particular, as well as eastern Scotland saw grass frost day anomalies of more than 2 days. A number of sites in southern England recorded 3 grass frosts.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2014/8/2014_8_GroundFrost_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

I have been asked the question how well would someone be doing in the competition this year if they had predicted an average temperature every month so far. Well the answer is not very well at all as the CET figure has not been within 0.5C of the mean in any month this year so far.

The cumulative error based on predicting the 1971-2000 mean every month is 11.51C which would be good enough for 52nd place out of 55 in the table.

Using the 1981-2010 mean the cumulative error is a little lower at 9.55C which would be good enough for 50th in the table.

So that strategy would certainly not have been effective this year.

Thanks GW!

I still remain within the table. Phew.

Thanks GW...great work.