Met Office Hadley 14.4c.  Anomaly  01.c.  provisional to 13 th.

Metcheck             13.92c. Anomaly 0.20c.

N - W                  14.77c. Anomaly 1.07c.

My  Mean             15.4c.

I am currently estimating the CET will be at 12.99C by 26 Sept. So a sub 13C CET now looks distinctly possible. So could be colder than last year which finished at 13.0C.

Looks like an "Epic Fail" for the CET competition then, with absolutely everyone having gone higher than 13C!

I know I have done well bad indeed.

15C I went for - so I'll lose some points big time.

Met Office Hadley    14.3c.   Anomaly  0.0c.    provisional to 14 th.

Metcheck               13.49c.  Anomaly -0.23c.

N - W                    14.51c.  Anomaly  0.81c.

My         Mean        15.1c.   

Met Office Hadley   14.1c.   Anomaly   -0.1c.  provisional to 15 th.

Metcheck             13.21c.  Anomaly    -0.51c.

N - W                  14.32c.  Anomaly      0.62c.

My   Mean            14.8c.

Philip Eden at 13.7;

http://www.climate-uk.com

Quite a big difference between Manley and Hadley now.

Looks like a very warm snap is on the way with +12C 850s widely developing. This gives my 15.0C prediction more hope 

Looks like a very warm snap is on the way with +12C 850s widely developing. This gives my 15.0C prediction more hope 

It's been a rather uncomfortable time for us lately hasn't it? Imagine how GW and Vince are feeling...!

Assuming Hadley would really be nearer 13.7°C up to yesterday if it was adjusted like at month's end, it's a long way to try and climb during what will be the final 9 days of the month - and that's if the warmer spell not only verifies but packs a punch and lasts until the final day of September! A very tall order, though ECM's certainly risen to the challenge on it's 12z op run

Unfortunately it relies on the behaviour of tropical and ex-tropical systems, the prediction of which is notoriously unreliable. Just look at how GFS takes Humberto's energy further east and builds an amplified ridge behind to deliver a very chilly blast of air to end the month!

Still uncomfortable times, to be honest 

Looks like a very warm snap is on the way with +12C 850s widely developing. This gives my 15.0C prediction more hope 

It's been a rather uncomfortable time for us lately hasn't it? Imagine how GW and Vince are feeling...!

Assuming Hadley would really be nearer 13.7°C up to yesterday if it was adjusted like at month's end, it's a long way to try and climb during what will be the final 9 days of the month - and that's if the warmer spell not only verifies but packs a punch and lasts until the final day of September! A very tall order, though ECM's certainly risen to the challenge on it's 12z op run

Unfortunately it relies on the behaviour of tropical and ex-tropical systems, the prediction of which is notoriously unreliable. Just look at how GFS takes Humberto's energy further east and builds an amplified ridge behind to deliver a very chilly blast of air to end the month!

Still uncomfortable times, to be honest 

Yeh that cold blast on the GFS is its second attempt to try and bring 'wintry' air really early this season. Still the first time it got stuck over Iceland. Actually if Humberto hits the UK directly, it might do some good. The south will be in the warm sector and the nights would be really warm. I have noticed that when you get a strong ana cold front coming down from the north, ahead of it you do usually get really warm air advected. If that cold front stalls over scotland or N england on the GFS, then we are looking at low twenties in the south. Yes its still pretty unconfortable, but the ECM especially has given something for me to be optimistic about! 

Met Office Hadley  13.8c   Anomaly -03c..  provisional to 16 th.

Metcheck                  12.91c.  Anomaly -0.81c

N  -  W                     14.11c.   Anomaly   0.41c.

My    Mean               14.6c.

Support for a warm spell is still strong this morning - in fact stronger in the 5-8 day range, before GFS starts to explore a whole plethora of other options that continues to include some notably chilly ones.

Looks like September could well ahve have a sled-shaped CET. A positive sign for the silly season?

A warm spell would putmy 13.2c prediction up the creek...

A warm spell would putmy 13.2c prediction up the creek...

And a cold spell - which we're already in would knife my 15C.

A warm spell would putmy 13.2c prediction up the creek...

And a cold spell - which we're already in would knife my 15C.

I see a 24C today on the GFS! 

Bit worried about chilly nights under HP though. 

Metcheck lower today..

Met Office Hadley    13.6c   Anomaly   -0.5c   provisional  to  17 th.

Metcheck               12.66c.  Anomaly   -1.06c.

 N - W                    13.94c    Anomaly    0.24c.

My     Mean........     14.5c.

Met Office Hadley   13.5c.    Anomaly  -0.5c.  provisional to 18 th.

Metcheck              12.54c.   Anomaly  -1.18c.

N - W                    13.82c.  Anomaly   0.12c.

My    Mean             14.4c.

Light Rain. Westerly  breeze  8.6 km/h. Humidity 94%. Temperature 13.5c.

Mean here is on 11.8C today (-0.8C)
It's going to creep upwith the next few warm days but overnight temperatures could hold it downespecially towards the end of the month.
Probably will end up just above or just below average. 

Met Office Hadley  13.5c.     Anomaly -0.5c. provisional to 19 th.

Metcheck              12.60c.  Anomaly  -1.12c.

N - W                   13.81c.  Anomaly   0.11c.

My    Mean           14.3c.  

Met Office Hadley  13.5c.    Anomaly   -0.5c.    provisionnal   to  20 th.

Metcheck             12.62c.   Anomaly   -1.10c. 

N - W                  13.78c.   Anomaly    0.08c.

My          Mean     14.2c.