Looks like a very warm snap is on the way with +12C 850s widely developing. This gives my 15.0C prediction more hope
It's been a rather uncomfortable time for us lately hasn't it? Imagine how GW and Vince are feeling...!
Assuming Hadley would really be nearer 13.7°C up to yesterday if it was adjusted like at month's end, it's a long way to try and climb during what will be the final 9 days of the month - and that's if the warmer spell not only verifies but packs a punch and lasts until the final day of September! A very tall order, though ECM's certainly risen to the challenge on it's 12z op run
Unfortunately it relies on the behaviour of tropical and ex-tropical systems, the prediction of which is notoriously unreliable. Just look at how GFS takes Humberto's energy further east and builds an amplified ridge behind to deliver a very chilly blast of air to end the month!
Still uncomfortable times, to be honest
Yeh that cold blast on the GFS is its second attempt to try and bring 'wintry' air really early this season. Still the first time it got stuck over Iceland. Actually if Humberto hits the UK directly, it might do some good. The south will be in the warm sector and the nights would be really warm. I have noticed that when you get a strong ana cold front coming down from the north, ahead of it you do usually get really warm air advected. If that cold front stalls over scotland or N england on the GFS, then we are looking at low twenties in the south. Yes its still pretty unconfortable, but the ECM especially has given something for me to be optimistic about!
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.