Interesting how closely it's still following 2010 which had an uptick at almost the same time! Deja vu, anyone?

Is there a point to be made here, John?.

I'm genuinely confused and would be interested in an explaination..

 

The point is that I see certain melt-seasons parallelling one another, and wonder if such seasons may tend to fall into a number of subtypes i.e. can they be classified, a bit like UK winters?

Interesting how closely it's still following 2010 which had an uptick at almost the same time! Deja vu, anyone?

Is there a point to be made here, John?.

I'm genuinely confused and would be interested in an explaination..

 

The point is that I see certain melt-seasons parallelling one another, and wonder if such seasons may tend to fall into a number of subtypes i.e. can they be classified, a bit like UK winters?

Zonal?????

The Arctic Sea Ice Area from the Cryosphere Today has probably reached its low point for the year (average date is Sept 10th and it doesn't vary from this by more than just a few days).

So it is the highest since 2006 and about 50% above 2012.

http://s12.postimg.org/z04colyu5/Cryosphere_Ice_Area_Sept10_2013.png

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

The Arctic Sea Ice Area from the Cryosphere Today has probably reached its low point for the year (average date is Sept 10th and it doesn't vary from this by more than just a few days).

You'll find that I have given the range of dates for the minimum earlier in this thread, Bill.

The average date since 2000 is in fact 15th September.

The average for the period 1979-2000 was indeed 10th September but it has tended to be later since 2000.

There could still be another week of losses - 16th to 18th is quite possible.  On the other hand it could indeed be today.

It is worth keeping in mind that after the record year of 2007 it took 5 years for the ice to fall below that level again.  A rebound from 2012 was always quite likely, wasn't it?

The Arctic Sea Ice Area from the Cryosphere Today has probably reached its low point for the year (average date is Sept 10th and it doesn't vary from this by more than just a few days).

You'll find that I have given the range of dates for the minimum earlier in this thread, Bill.

The average date since 2000 is in fact 15th September.

The average for the period 1979-2000 was indeed 10th September but it has tended to be later since 2000.

There could still be another week of losses - 16th to 18th is quite possible.  On the other hand it could indeed be today.

 

It is worth keeping in mind that after the record year of 2007 it took 5 years for the ice to fall below that level again.  A rebound from 2012 was always quite likely, wasn't it?

This is the sea ice AREA from the Cryosphere Today which has its own seasonality.

It should be interesting to see if we break through the Cryosat. 1979 2008 zero anomaly line this year

It's been quite a while.

I have a link below.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

It should be interesting to see if we break through the Cryosat. 1979 2008 zero anomaly line this year

It's been quite a while.

I have a link below.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

It should be interesting to see if we break through the Cryosat. 1979 2008 zero anomaly line this year

It's been quite a while.

I have a link below.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

That graph is interesting in that it is clearly not linear as is often portrayed for many climate indicators.

Interesting how closely it's still following 2010 which had an uptick at almost the same time! Deja vu, anyone?

Is there a point to be made here, John?.

I'm genuinely confused and would be interested in an explaination..

 

The point is that I see certain melt-seasons parallelling one another, and wonder if such seasons may tend to fall into a number of subtypes i.e. can they be classified, a bit like UK winters?

Sorry for the late reply.

It woud help if you could identify the melt seasons you are talking about.

As for UK winters?.

A meteorlogical nightmare.

Was that the camera next to the lead that suddenly opened in Mid August? 

Anyway I can see some pancake ice forming, at least thats what it looks like to my untrained eye. Seems clear that new ice is starting to form in the central pack. Now, temps have been -5C or so for weeks in the beaufort and as yet no new ice has formed, do the satelittes fail to pick up on very young ice until it has reached a certain thickness? Very young ice is greasy and translucent and I can see why they might mistake it for water or even melt ponds. 

It looks likely that the minimum for sea ice extent for this year was reached on 12th September. 

Version 1 puts the figure at 5,000,313 - which puts it 6th lowest

Version 2 puts the figure at 4,809,288 - also 6th lowest

12th September is around 2 days earlier than the average for this century and 2 days later than the 1979-2000 mean

It looks likely that the minimum for sea ice extent for this year was reached on 12th September. 

Version 1 puts the figure at 5,000,313 - which puts it 6th lowest

Version 2 puts the figure at 4,809,288 - also 6th lowest

 

12th September is around 2 days earlier than the average for this century and 2 days later than the 1979-2000 mean

Thanks for the stats.

It should be interesting to see if we break through the Cryosat. 1979 2008 zero anomaly line this year

It's been quite a while.

I have a link below.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

That graph is interesting in that it is clearly not linear as is often portrayed for many climate indicators.

Hardly Dave. Most of us are at pains to point out that the behaviour of thr climate is NON-linear

I think we should expect an increase of roughly 1.25 million this year.
This might bring arctic sea ice area into a lasting (period) of a notable positive anomaly, for the first time since 2003.

With a bit of luck we may even touch the former most pesimistic runs 

But im not sure if there is any great coralation between high summer minima and high winter maxima. 2012 did quite well in the spring time, even appropacing average at one point. 

With a bit of luck we may even touch the former most pesimistic runs 

But im not sure if there is any great coralation between high summer minima and high winter maxima. 2012 did quite well in the spring time, even appropacing average at one point. 

It should show a big dip.

With a bit of luck we may even touch the former most pesimistic runs 

But im not sure if there is any great coralation between high summer minima and high winter maxima. 2012 did quite well in the spring time, even appropacing average at one point. 

That chart was corrected last year.  The correct one is here.