Blinked and I missed it! Normally one monitoring each day is enough.

It certainly was a blink and you miss it situation! I’m hoping it stays quiet for a while as I’m off to the Caribbean next week.

Darby in E Pacific nearly a record for rapid intensification

From 5 p.m. EDT Sunday to Monday, Darby’s winds increased by a startling 65 knots (75 mph) in 24 hours. That’s more than twice the 30-knot increment needed to qualify as rapid intensification, based on the official NHC definition. 

But it's tiny - the radius of hurricane force winds is only 20km. Now heading for Hawaii, perhaps as cat 5 for a while, but weakening before it gets there.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, a disturbance off Louisiana is doubtful for elevation to TD because of poorly defined circulation but the combination of record SSTs in the Gulf and a stalled front may generate 40-50cm of rain locally. The last similar synoptics in Aug 2016 gave similar totals of rainfall, caused 60 deaths and $10bn of damage

Data from https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/07/prolonged-deluge-may-trigger-serious-gulf-coast-flooding/ 

Atlantic staying very quiet - it must go bang sometime soon after all the predictions, surely - but E Pacific already up to Hurricane Frank off Mexico moving out to sea and TS Georgette not going anywhere. No headlines as neither are affecting land.

At last some action on the Atlantic - but only a little. Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 now in the Bay of Campeche expected to move N and drench parts of Mexico and Texas. 

NOAA still expecting above average hurricane season - but we're running out of time!

I can`t remember a hurricane season so quiet as this year.Normally by now things are getting very active,this year no sign of any hurricanes at all,very odd.

At last some action on the Atlantic - but only a little. Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 now in the Bay of Campeche expected to move N and drench parts of Mexico and Texas. 

NOAA still expecting above average hurricane season - but we're running out of time!

It'll probably start later - But could still be busy in say 3 weeks time.

 

It'll probably start later - But could still be busy in say 3 weeks time.

 

October can be a busy month too. 

What's the cause of the quietness in the Atlantic so far? High wind shear?

According to the searches I’ve done it may be due to the MJO and the negative phase over Africa and India. However this is likely to change shortly and the first cat 3 hurricane is forecast to form in the last third of August… we’ll see.

The first tropical wave of the Atlantic season is currently over the Cabo Verde islands with modest prospects for development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

i've seen suggestions that the Saharan dry air has been dominating the Atlantic this year and suppressing activity, but that it's now breaking up.

Now two tropical waves in the Atlantic, one approaching Gulf of Mexico, one leaving Africa. NHC rates their chance of development as low in the next 5 days but GFS shows one (presumably the second, given the timing) moving offshore up the US coast Sat 10th

Now two tropical waves in the Atlantic, one approaching Gulf of Mexico, one leaving Africa. NHC rates their chance of development as low in the next 5 days but GFS shows one (presumably the second, given the timing) moving offshore up the US coast Sat 10th

It was supposed to be one of the busiest years on record. What went wrong?

 

It was supposed to be one of the busiest years on record. What went wrong?

 

Discussion here:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/08/quiet-in-the-atlantic-will-we-go-0-for-august/ 

The wave in mid-Atlantic has had its chances of development increased to 40% in five days' time. 

If that's the hurricane which has been appearing on the more distant GFS Op charts, its development is still uncertain as it appears on some GEFS perturbations but not on others.

Edit - now up to 60%; Possibly the weak feature shown off NY Sat 10th on GFS Op

Further edit (29 Aug) ; up to 80%

ECM currently predicting a direct hit on England with the still notably active remains of a hurricane which developed mid Atlantic. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx places it 985mb C England Sat 10th

Not to be confused with another hurricane in more advanced development and further S at the moment. likely to visit the Caribbean before re-curving and running NE towards Greenland https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc at about the same time

ECM and GFS are keener to deepen these systems than is NHC.

Don't worry - it may never happen!

EDIT - NHC has caught up  - 70% and 80% chance respectively of tropical storm within 5 days. And the wave just leaving Africa is given 50% chance

Models getting interested in trying to put a TC close to the UK.

Will be watching this with a keen eye.

NHC elevates disturbance at 45W 38N to TD 5, and further strengthens it to hurricane on Sat3rd, where it stays for a day before heading towards UK. Land's End is 43W 50N so about 800 miles away.

NHC now analysing Troical Depression 5 and calling for further strenghthening https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

And now quickly upgreded within a matter of hours to Tropical Storm Danielle https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TS Danielle is now upgraded to Hurricane Danielle.