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Offline DEW  
#1041 Posted : 01 July 2022 07:09:15(UTC)
DEW

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Posts: 18,241
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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

WX temp distribution like yesterday's chart, inverting the current situation i.e. in week 2 a cool-ish plunge from Scandinavia down to Poland with increased warmth on either side and notably hot in Spain and the Caspian. For Britain, very warm in the south though the extra hot weather stays just the other side of the Channel, and even Scotland sees improved temps on this run. Rain mostly east of Germany, even more pronounced in week 2; some also coming back to the northern isles by then.

Jet mainly from a W-ly direction in fits and starts; in the middle of the forecast period a loop forms to the west which promotes the LP off Ireland and the S-ly flow mentioned below before going back W-ly again

GFS Op - current trough covering UK moves away slowly but is out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th as Azores High builds in steadily eventually the 1025mb neatly follows the coasts of Britain by Mon 11th.  This is pushed E-wards by LP 1000mb off W Ireland with the prospect of some very warm air from a long way S Wed 13th; the LP then heads off to Iceland and a more normal light but still warm SW-ly affects Britain by Sun 17th.

GEFS - mean temp a little below norm now, rising to a couple of degrees above norm by Mon 11th with good agreement between ens members. Then a lot of disagreement sets in; the mean stays near norm, representing an asymmetric distribution of many ens members near norm, some much above, none much below. Both op and control have their moments at 10+C above norm on different days. Dry (the N has a little rain at first) with a few perhaps thundery spikes late on.

ECM - much like GFS

"Quick zephyrs blow, vexing daft Jim" - another weather pangram
Offline GezM  
#1042 Posted : 01 July 2022 08:33:20(UTC)
GezM

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
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Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Indeed more of these hot runs feeding in now if the charts align there is so much potential for record heat. Not saying it will definitely but the chances are increasing. Deviations run to run but trends looking more favourable for heat to build

It does appear that we are going to get a more steady build up of heat compared with what happened in June. More widespread too so that hopefully the majority of the UK will enjoy some warm weather.

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline TimS  
#1043 Posted : 01 July 2022 09:28:53(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,094
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

 

It does appear that we are going to get a more steady build up of heat compared with what happened in June. More widespread too so that hopefully the majority of the UK will enjoy some warm weather.

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

I am looking forward to the coming week as, touch wood, it looks to be an unusual spell of pleasantly warm, sunny and dry weather before the thermostat cranks up. Day after day of 25-27C would be lovely, and much better if topped off by a burst of proper heat rather than that being it before a breakdown.

I like nice pleasant weather but I also like exciting heatwaves, so having several days of the former but knowing the latter is on the way is ideal. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Downpour  
#1044 Posted : 01 July 2022 09:39:46(UTC)
Downpour

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 953
Location: London E4

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

I am looking forward to the coming week as, touch wood, it looks to be an unusual spell of pleasantly warm, sunny and dry weather before the thermostat cranks up. Day after day of 25-27C would be lovely, and much better if topped off by a burst of proper heat rather than that being it before a breakdown.

I like nice pleasant weather but I also like exciting heatwaves, so having several days of the former but knowing the latter is on the way is ideal. 

Indeed. Although I could live without the raging heat it’s nice to see some fine weather progged. Up in the Peaks hiking next weekend so hoping for some dry but not hot weather. I think variable cloud is likely to peg temps back to around 23c up there. 

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Online overland  
#1045 Posted : 01 July 2022 12:37:27(UTC)
overland

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 175
Location: Mumbles, Swansea

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

Too true as in those setups, while the SE bakes, we have cloud and drizzle in a dank south westerly!

Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Online Rob K  
#1046 Posted : 01 July 2022 18:08:29(UTC)
Rob K

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Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,126
Location: Northeast Hampshire

An incredibly dry set of ensembles so far. The 6Z showed a mostly steady increase in temperature with very little rain. July could be a really good summer month (and hopefully allow good progress on my building project without turning the garden into a quagmire!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Offline TimS  
#1047 Posted : 01 July 2022 18:44:07(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,094
Location: Brockley

P20 of this evebing’s GFS is the hottest run I’ve ever set eyes on. That’s a 40C run, but more pertinently it’s a run with upper air conducive to 37-38C+ for 5 days in a row.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Brian Gaze  
#1048 Posted : 01 July 2022 18:49:48(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 62,199

Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Edited by user 01 July 2022 20:24:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline TimS  
#1049 Posted : 01 July 2022 19:29:49(UTC)
TimS

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Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 11,094
Location: Brockley

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Historic.

That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online johncs2016  
#1050 Posted : 01 July 2022 19:38:59(UTC)
johncs2016

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Man
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Location: The NW of Edinburgh

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

 

That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Offline doctormog  
#1051 Posted : 01 July 2022 19:41:28(UTC)
doctormog

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Posts: 75,050

He doesn’t live in the sea.
Sevendust  
#1052 Posted : 01 July 2022 20:00:37(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
He doesn’t live in the sea.

Are you sure? He is often getting washed away 

Offline glenogle  
#1053 Posted : 01 July 2022 21:11:26(UTC)
glenogle

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Location: Trossachs 105m

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Sitting here in Spain sweating buckets at 27 degrees.(14 is tshirt weather in scotland, 20 is scorching 😁).

Supposed to be in Paris next week and seriously thinking about canceling it due to the current forecast heat.

UserPostedImage

Offline Jiries  
#1054 Posted : 02 July 2022 06:59:15(UTC)
Jiries

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Location: Galley Common, 130m.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Someone posted in NW yesterday showing double 40C from north of London. Nice and hope we ge this. Birmingham might see a record go if went over 36C set in 3rd July 1990. No idea for Nuneaton but went to 31C 2 weeks ago when London was 32C so perhaps had reached 36C or 37C when 38.7 reached in Cambridge. Was 34C in 2020 hot spell.

Offline DEW  
#1055 Posted : 02 July 2022 07:36:41(UTC)
DEW

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,241
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

WX summary a bit of a downgrade for hot-weather fans this morning, though good for people like myself who like warmth without extremes. The collapse of the 'heat dome'(?) over Scandinavia with the spread of cool air into Europe from that direction is more widespread by week 2 than shown yesterday, and while Britain including Scotland warms up noticeably, the real heat only reaches to mid-France. SW Spain and Caspian still quite extreme. Most of the rain is over Scandinavia and points to the south of there; a very dry patch over Spain and France reaches S England.

GFS Op has the current trough well out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th, with the Azores High building in behind it, slowly  but more intense than shown yesterday (1040mb off W Ireland by Fri 8th), eventually ridging across Britain by Tue 12th with more of an E-ly especially for England. The LP shown yesterday on the Atlantic in week 2 with its associated strong S-ly no longer features in the forecast.

GEFS mean temp currently just below norm, rising to a little above around Sat 9th, then back to norm with much scatter between ens members but without yesterday's hot outliers. Very dry; a little rain in the N in some ens members later on.

ECM similar to GFS but the ridge which forms is a little further S (over England rather than Scotland) hence more of a W-ly for the N and less of an E-ly for the S

"Quick zephyrs blow, vexing daft Jim" - another weather pangram
Offline GezM  
#1056 Posted : 02 July 2022 08:24:15(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,404
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Taylor1740  
#1057 Posted : 02 July 2022 09:45:59(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 538
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: GezM Go to Quoted Post
Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.

Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline moomin75  
#1058 Posted : 02 July 2022 09:59:42(UTC)
moomin75

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Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,228

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.

At the risk of getting shouted down, 40c is never a likely outcome here.

A long dry spell and increasingly warm to hot though does look likely.

Don't think summer lovers anywhere would complain at what we've got coming up.

 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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