This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for June
1981-2010 14.48C (30 years)
1991-2020 14.69C (30 years)
2001-2020 14.88C (last 20 years)
Last year June was very pleasant with 15.3C. 2017 and 2018 were warmer with both years just reaching 16C. 2015 and 2019 were cooler in the low 14s. Prior to that, 2010-2012 were all in the high 13s.
Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
Current model output
850s looking well above average. Interestingly there are two splits in the data. On 3 and 4 June, some runs go much cooler while others keep it very warm. The latest operational run sits right in the middle. We also have a split at the end of the run with a cluster of warm runs but also a strong cluster of quite cool runs. So quite a bit of uncertainty. Generally, it looks like this could be the first month of 2021 with a significantly above-average anomaly. Don't forget the ENS only cover the first half of the month.
ECM (de Bilt) also looks warm with increasing scatter as usual towards the end of the run.
Met Office contingency planners outlook
June looking fairly close to average both from a temperature and rainfall perspective. Maybe a slightly above average chance of a warm month.
Edited by moderator
31 July 2021 13:52:36
| Reason: Not specified