Local mean max and min, despite 3 cold days and some cool nights, 21.4 and 12.0 so 16.7C. I take readings about 6.15am (BST currently) due to work so several days (like today) have a minimum considerably lower than the standard 10am GMT reading- this was 11 from yesterday's reading time, but would have been 15. This equates to almost another .2C for the min. Not vastly different but nonetheless.

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Met Office Hadley        15.8c       Anomaly      1.7c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     15.94c     Anomaly       1.79c

Netweather                  16.28c     Anomaly       2.19c

Peasedown St John    15.99c     Anomaly   1.49c.  

 

 

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Met Office Hadley        15.7c       Anomaly        1.7c provisional to 26th

Metcheck                     15.91c     Anomaly         1.76c

Netweather                  16.25c     Anomaly         2.1c

Peasedown St John     16.0c      Anomaly       1.5c.

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Interesting to see the CET holding up despite actual Central England having had some stinkers in recent days. I think this is the Western bias of the CET manifesting itself - it's been unusually warm on the Lancashire plain and OKish in Worcestershire, while the Midlands and South have had the cool maxima. The opposite to what we often see during zonal warm spells where it's hot in London, Kent and Essex but 18C in Stonyhurst and the CET barely budges upwards.

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Met Office Hadley         `15.7c       Anomaly       1.6c  provisional to 27th

Metcheck                        15.88c     Anomaly       1.73c

Netweather                     16.24c     Anomaly       2.15c

Peasedown St John       16.05c      Anomaly      1.55c.

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June has been a month of two halves. The first 17 days were well above average. The rest of the month has been below average or close to average. Overall still a warm month but not as warm as it first looked like it might be.

My current CET estimate is 15.50C

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley      15.7c      Anomaly        1.6c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                   15.81c     Anomaly        1.66c

Netweather                 16.2c      Anomaly        2.11c

Peasedown St John    15.72c     Anomaly      1.275c

         

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About 10 days ago, I had you nailed for a stonking month. 

I'm a bit disappointed the temp is so low; was hoping it would nobble quite a few in the competition 

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Met Office Hadley        15.7c.      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to29th

Metcheck                     15.17c     Anomaly       1.62c

Netweather                  16.18c     Anomaly       2.09c

Peasedown St John    15.77c      Anomaly      1.27c.  

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July already!   Time for a new thread!  

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The final June figure is 15.53C

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021

Well done to Whether Idle who was spot on with an exact prediction. Not often someone gets it correct to 2 decimals.

 

Congrats to WI, but a huge disappointment in the final figure after a great start.

The overall table isn't going to get the seismic jolt that a figure well into the 16's would have given.

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Here are the daily stats by station (per my calculations rather than official figures).

West was best this month. The maximum temperature at Stonyhurst was almost as high as Pershore College. In the final three days of the month, Stonyhurst was by far the warmest station.

Table

Here are the charts for June

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Oh wow!  Well done WI!  That is impressive!  

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Disappointed, I thought I was finally going to get some luck in this year's competition mid month.

When was the last time we had got to July 1st without 30C being reached in the UK? Must be a few years ago.

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Annual CET competition - June update

Here is the latest competition table. No significant change at the top part of the table this month. Most people had very close predictions. Overall the prediction error was less than 0.5C on average this month.

Table

2014

Still 5th so I shouldn't really complain but with a 15.92C prediction I had hoped for so much more this month....

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How the mighty have fallen! 

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Heady days for me , very unusual. 

 

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Well done WI. It must also be very unusual to have 6 entrants guess within 0.03c of the final result! I'm very happy finishing 0.02c away, particularly as it looked like I'd be a long way out at the halfway point.

Looking at the latest competition table, it's not ridiculous to say that anyone could still win it (including Darren!).

Well played Whether Idle

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Well done WI 

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Well done to all who were within half a degree of the actual this month. Given the two halves nature, it was a tricky one to pin down.

Incidentally, if you'd predicted the 1991-2020 average for every month so far, you'd be in 24th place, so it's not been an easy year to date!

I'm still hauling myself up the steps from near the bottom after the Jan-Feb fiasco. Especially Feb, without which I'd be in 8th place and a bit saner of mind .

 

Very interested in seeing the July estimates. It's one of those months which is starting differently to how most longer-range forecast products have been predicting it will be overall. Always a trickier customer!

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