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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 31 May 2021 09:14:37(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,667
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard. 


For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.  


Historic CET summary for June


1981-2010 14.48C (30 years)   


1991-2020 14.69C (30 years)  


2001-2020 14.88C (last 20 years)  


Last year June was very pleasant with 15.3C. 2017 and 2018 were warmer with both years just reaching 16C. 2015 and 2019 were cooler in the low 14s. Prior to that, 2010-2012 were all in the high 13s.


Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961  



Direct link to a larger version of the chart


Current model output    


850s looking well above average. Interestingly there are two splits in the data. On 3 and 4 June, some runs go much cooler while others keep it very warm. The latest operational run sits right in the middle. We also have a split at the end of the run with a cluster of warm runs but also a strong cluster of quite cool runs. So quite a bit of uncertainty. Generally, it looks like this could be the first month of 2021 with a significantly above-average anomaly. Don't forget the ENS only cover the first half of the month.


GEFS


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw= 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=


ECM (de Bilt) also looks warm with increasing scatter as usual towards the end of the run.


http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png


Met Office contingency planners outlook  


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jja-v1.pdf


June looking fairly close to average both from a temperature and rainfall perspective. Maybe a slightly above average chance of a warm month.

Edited by moderator 31 July 2021 13:52:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl
Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 31 May 2021 10:31:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank You, GW. Prediction Sent.


Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Online Bolty  
#3 Posted : 01 June 2021 01:31:49(UTC)
Bolty

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Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

Yes, looking at tonight's GFS, June (or at least the first half of it) could be the first well-above average period of this year so far. It wouldn't surprise me if we have just seen another synoptic "flip" in our weather where we go from one set of persistent conditions to another. Sent my prediction.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
Offline Stormchaser  
#4 Posted : 01 June 2021 10:01:41(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

I'm already wondering whether I should have gone higher .


Main uncertainty is how far north the main high pressure belt locates for the mid-month period. On top of that, it's not a simple relationship between how far north and how warm it is; mid-June easterlies can be anything from fresh to hot!


Does appear to be a lot of fine weather on offer for the opening half or so .


Even tomorrow through Thu now looks to stay dry for many of us. Turning fresher from the west by Friday but still pleasantly warm for most of us, before a recovery at the weekend, though with a possibility of wet weather moving up from the south for a time (but GFS not well supported on that).

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline springsunshine  
#5 Posted : 01 June 2021 14:01:06(UTC)
springsunshine

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Posts: 1,714
Location: Bournemouth

I have gone for slightly above average and think,based on model evidence,this is going to be not a bad month and more than likely the best month of the summer. Although not overly hot with temps in the low 20`s it feels a different world than than April and May.

Offline ARTzeman  
#6 Posted : 02 June 2021 10:48:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        17.3c        Anomaly        4.5c     Provisional to 1st


Metcheck                     15.99c      Anomaly        1.84c


Netweather                  17.72c      Anomaly         3.63c


Peasedown St John     15.33c      Anomaly     0.83c.      



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline ARTzeman  
#7 Posted : 03 June 2021 10:15:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        17.7c       Anomaly       4.8c provisional to 2nd


Metcheck                     17.15c     Anomaly       3.00c


Netweather                  17.98c     Anomaly       3.89c


Peasedown St John      16.7c      Anomaly      2.2c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#8 Posted : 03 June 2021 13:36:25(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Posts: 25,496
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I wish I'd gone for something like 16.5C. I've gone way too low.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Caz  
#9 Posted : 04 June 2021 06:01:21(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post


I wish I'd gone for something like 16.5C. I've gone way too low.



  I went just above average and think the same.  Plenty of time for it to change but I hope it doesn’t.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline ARTzeman  
#10 Posted : 04 June 2021 10:19:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,377
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        17.2c       Anomaly     4.1c provisional to 3rd


Metcheck                     16.84c     Anomaly     2.9c


Netweather                  17.64c     Anomaly     3.55c


Peasedown St John     15.38c     Anomaly      0.88c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Global Warming  
#11 Posted : 05 June 2021 10:26:49(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,667
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

First look at the June CET tracker. Looking well above average 


A real possibility that the CET could hit 17.0C this month. The last time that happened??..... 1976.


The CET has only exceeded 17C on 4 occasions:


1822  17.1C
1826  17.3C
1846  18.2C
1976  17.0C



Chart 1



Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl
Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c
Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 05 June 2021 10:40:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 29,377
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        16.5c     Anomaly      3.3c provisional to 4th


Metcheck                     16.09c   Anomaly      1.95c


Netweather                  16.74c   Anomaly      2.65c


Peasedown St John     15.11c   Anomaly   0.61c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Global Warming  
#13 Posted : 05 June 2021 10:47:18(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,667
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Here are the June predictions



Table 1

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl
Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c
Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 05 June 2021 10:53:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,377
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank you for the charts, GW.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Offline Caz  
#15 Posted : 05 June 2021 17:00:29(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 22,845
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

  Cheers GW!   Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#16 Posted : 05 June 2021 18:40:30(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,046
Man
Location: West Hants

Wow, didn't expect to have the 6th highest estimate for this month!


Given the current outlook, I'm relieved as like Caz and HT I've been thinking I should have gone (even) higher.


That might be a bit presumptuous, though. The main reason I didn't go for a month in the 16s is the presence of an active tropical cycle that will inevitably try to bring about a change to cooler and more changeable conditions for the final third of the month.


I said try for a reason, though - it's not the only player in town and occasionally, other factors override. We saw that big time in late June 2018.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#17 Posted : 06 June 2021 09:34:20(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,496
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


  Cheers GW!   Looks like I’ve undercooked it though. 



I was wrongly expecting a partial extension of the cold stuff we had in April and May. Anyway - it's al good fun.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#18 Posted : 06 June 2021 09:46:52(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 172
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

So strange that May and June continue to be the months where we can't seem to get anywhere near records set when Queen Victoria was on the throne .
I'm confident both will be smashed in my lifetime though
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#19 Posted : 06 June 2021 13:32:01(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,496
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post


First look at the June CET tracker. Looking well above average 


A real possibility that the CET could hit 17.0C this month. The last time that happened??..... 1976.


The CET has only exceeded 17C on 4 occasions:


1822  17.1C
1826  17.3C
1846  18.2C
1976  17.0C



Chart 1



Chart 2



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.
Offline ARTzeman  
#20 Posted : 06 June 2021 14:41:53(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 29,377
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         16.1c       Anomaly      2.9c provisional to 5th


Met check               16.23c     Anomaly     2.09c


Netweather             16.56c     Anomaly     2.46c


Peasedown St John   16.6c    Anomaly 2.1c.



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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