ARTzeman
Saturday, January 9, 2021 10:46:21 AM

Met Office Hadley         1.0c        Anomaly      -2.5c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       1.22c     Anomaly      -2.93c

Netweather                    1.81c     Anomaly      -2.4c

Peasedown  St John      1.4c      Anomaly       3.5c.   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
Sunday, January 10, 2021 10:56:21 AM

Met Office Hadley       1.0c       Anomaliy     -2.5c provisional to 9th

Metcheck                    1.11c     Anomaly      -3.04c

Netweather                 1.65c     Anomaly      -2.56c

Peasedown St John    1.3c      Anomaly       -3.6c.      

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
Sunday, January 10, 2021 4:41:01 PM

Latest CET tracker shows the next four days should be somewhat less cold but by Friday things turn cooler again. Beyond that there is a lot of uncertainty but there are increasing signs of colder weather returning. 

At present the CET is predicted to be 3.22C by 24 January. However, I fully expect it could be a lot lower than that. 

The first 10 days of January will see a CET of just 0.9C which is 3.4C below average.

UserPostedImage

Chart 1

UserPostedImage

Chart 2


redmoons
Sunday, January 10, 2021 4:45:23 PM

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

In fact the first 10 days of 2021 is the coldest first 10 days of the year since 1893.

Wow that is amazing 


Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Whether Idle
Sunday, January 10, 2021 5:12:13 PM

Originally Posted by: redmoons 

 

Wow that is amazing 

What is more amazing is that Ive managed an air frost and I saw few small flakes of snow a couple of days ago!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Stormchaser
Sunday, January 10, 2021 6:28:09 PM

Model madness continues but there's an underlying increase in support for very cold air to make its way in from the northeast within the 3rd week of the month, likely as part of a cyclonic setup (i.e. unstable i.e. high snow potential).

The GFS 12z was one of the colder outcomes, giving me a CET estimate to 26th in the mid-1s °C.

Yet there have been a fair few much milder outcomes appearing too, which while a dwindling cluster in the ensembles, can't be ignored. Those lift my CET estimate right up into the 3s or even 4s °C!

 

Funny really - coldest opening 10 days in the CET series in 128 years, while down here it's been nothing of much note (overall) and about half the days reached close to 5°C which is what I'd call 'very chilly' rather than cold.

No snow here either - but it did deliver a rare subzero maximum and one of the only ones I can recall with no snow cover. So it's had its moments! 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Sunday, January 10, 2021 7:39:32 PM
GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010. I remember it as being a solidly sub zero CET period from my own recollections of the weather at the time/following the late Philip Eden's daily CET updates which he used to do back then.

Likewise 1997 and 2009 had bitter starts to January with several ice days at least IMBY. There must have been some mild days mixed in that I am forgetting!

Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, January 10, 2021 7:57:39 PM

Coldest since 1893. That's unbelievable,  and barely a flake of snow for over half the country. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bolty
Sunday, January 10, 2021 8:46:13 PM

Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

lanky
Sunday, January 10, 2021 9:17:03 PM

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.

This was commented on in the "worst cold spell" thread below

It looks very much that the table compared mean temperatures in 2020 with the maximum temperatures for other years

1963 for instance should say -0.57


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Stormchaser
Sunday, January 10, 2021 10:00:45 PM

I've since confirmed that GW's stats were awry - probably is a comparison with historical mean max CET as you say.

Means for the opening 10 days provisionally place 2021 near the bottom of a long list of years since 1772 that were 1°C or below:

1814: -2.97°C
1795: -2.59°C
1820: -2.48°C
1789: -2.19°C
1864: -2.09°C
1861: -2.00°C
1841: -1.95°C
1893: -1.93°C
2010: -1.90°C
1894: -1.79°C
1811: -1.78°C
1777: -1.45°C
1879: -1.19°C
1774: -1.05°C
1891: -1.05°C
1941: -0.77°C
1784: -0.68°C
1997: -0.65°C
1963: -0.57°C
1780: -0.56°C
1887: -0.43°C
1979: -0.40°C
2009: -0.37°C
1842: -0.31°C
1802: -0.30°C
1794: -0.14°C
1850: -0.12°C
1868: -0.11°C
1799: -0.09°C

1895: 0.01°C
1985: 0.07°C
1786: 0.09°C
1970: 0.22°C
1871: 0.27°C
1778: 0.27°C
1854: 0.29°C
1931: 0.34°C
1867: 0.42°C
1815: 0.55°C
1849: 0.58°C
1918: 0.66°C
1773: 0.66°C
1908: 0.67°C
1835: 0.71°C
1921: 0.75°C
1967: 0.81°C
1833: 0.87°C
2021: 0.90°C
1940: 1.00°C


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Darren S
Sunday, January 10, 2021 10:24:47 PM

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010.

He edited the "since 1893" bit out of his post, so it looks like that wasn't true as others have suggested.

Certainly here, not only have we not had a single flake of snow this month, and only one visible hoar frost, but the lowest temperature has only been -2.3C (last night) and the lowest maximum wasn't an ice day (+0.5C, on the 7th January). Still has been a notable cold spell, but only memorable for the facts and figures, and not for what's outside the window. 


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

Winter 2022/3: Snow Days: 0 Snow Cover Days: 0 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 0 cm Total Depth: 0 cm

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Bolty
Sunday, January 10, 2021 10:25:00 PM
That makes more sense. Whilst this January has been cold-feeling so far, it seemed a bit too stange for it to be colder than months like 2010 and 1979 etc.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Darren S
Sunday, January 10, 2021 10:29:57 PM

According to this link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

CET First 10 days of January 2010: -1.90C

CET First 10 days of January 1979: -0.45C

CET First 10 days of January 1963: -0.57C

Damn, Stormchaser beat me to it!


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

Winter 2022/3: Snow Days: 0 Snow Cover Days: 0 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 0 cm Total Depth: 0 cm

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Spring Sun Winter Dread
Sunday, January 10, 2021 11:31:27 PM
Even so there's been only 4 colder starts to Jan since 1979.

That's quite something

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