Now Isaias has been forecast to strengthen to Hurricane status: - not sure what cat though, but no surprise given the very warm above average N. Atlantic SST esp off eastern seaboard of the USA/Canada etc.

 

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Disturbance near African coast strengthened quickly to TD10 but not forecast to intensify further

Isaias giving the Florida coast a hurricane bashing this weekend before skipping up to Nova Scotia by Wed. Full analysis here https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/updates-on-hurricane-isaias-from-eye-on-the-storm/ incl some good photographs

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Mid-Atlantic disturbance with 60% chance of development - worth watching as chances have increased sharply since yesterday.

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Now TD 11 - expected to become storm Josephine today and then to run N of Haiti by Sunday, current forecast well away from land

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Josephine on course, due to re-curve well away from US coast.

Kyle has popped up south of Nova Scotia - doesn't look long-lasting but could easily inject some energy into the N Atlantic and thus our weather.

Would these storms have been reported before the satellite era? And if not, what does that do for long-term statistics?

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Josephine on course, due to re-curve well away from US coast.

Kyle has popped up south of Nova Scotia - doesn't look long-lasting but could easily inject some energy into the N Atlantic and thus our weather.

Would these storms have been reported before the satellite era? And if not, what does that do for long-term statistics?

I assume sailors and shipping would have picked them up though, but who makes records in those days?

Seems like some more tropical waves coming out of Africa might have a better chance of development next weekend. We were promised some big events this season

 

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A couple of promising disturbances in the tropical Atlantic - watch this space.

East Pacific quite lively with TS Fausto and TS Genevieve, the latter staying offshore and heading NW while forecast developing into major hurricane

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98L/TD 13 in the Atlantic expected to become storm Laura later today and to run along N of Haiti and Cuba to reach Florida on Monday "with more than the usual uncertainty" [NHC] . The NHC model isn't predicting a hurricane but most models are, with the remnants affecting UK weather at the beginning of BH week . Good map further down in link.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/genevieve-intensifies-rapidly-to-become-a-category-4-hurricane-in-pacific/

Another disturbance in the Caribbean looks ripe for development as it moves towards Yucatan but hasn't reached TD status yet.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Genevieve is running along the Baja California peninsula just offshore and quietening down after briefly reaching cat 4..

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The second disturbance above, the one in the Caribbean, is now TD14. 

So we have TD13 and TD14 in competition to be named a storm (Marco and Laura- which will get the name first?)

NHC forecast has them each arriving as a hurricane simultaneously on the Gulf Coast of the US on Monday, TD13 on the Florida panhandle and TD14 in east Texas. Have two simultaneous landfalls ever happened before? But still a lot of uncertainty about theie interaction with land  and/or dry air between now and then

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The second disturbance above, the one in the Caribbean, is now TD14. 

So we have TD13 and TD14 in competition to be named a storm (Marco and Laura- which will get the name first?)

NHC forecast has them each arriving as a hurricane simultaneously on the Gulf Coast of the US on Monday, TD13 on the Florida panhandle and TD14 in east Texas. Have two simultaneous landfalls ever happened before? But still a lot of uncertainty about theie interaction with land  and/or dry air between now and then

Not sure two simultaneous landfalls have ever happened. At the moment both look like making landfall at almost exactly the same time just a few hundred miles apart on Tuesday evening local time. Fascinating.

However, two major Cat 3 storms did make landfall in the US within 24 hours of each other back in 1933. That year had 5 landfalls on the US mainland.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1296702818292772865

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/054207_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/054415_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

So where is it the active season this year that NOAA was buffering arround???
Ok..a few TS and One hurricane cat1 I know that the peak os next Month but we should by this time see more encourage indicators...

Probably November could be tudo Month...

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So where is it the active season this year that NOAA was buffering arround???
Ok..a few TS and One hurricane cat1 I know that the peak os next Month but we should by this time see more encourage indicators...

Probably November could be tudo Month...

That statement is factually inaccurate. 

The latest update from the NHC (which is a little old now as dated 1 August), stated that accumulated cyclone energy so far this year in the Atlantic basin is twice the long term mean, so well above average

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

Which one will become Laura first? And what is the next name?

Would be funny if they collided in the Gulf. But perhaps they will prevent each other from developing?

 

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Which one will become Laura first? And what is the next name?

Would be funny if they collided in the Gulf. But perhaps they will prevent each other from developing?

 

Latest forecast suggests TD14 will the first to reach Tropical Storm status, possibly within 12 hours.

Laura and Marco are the next names.

In fact TD13 has now become Tropical Storm Laura.

This is the earliest on record that the 12th named storm of the season has formed. Previous earliest was 29th August 1995.

Which one will become Laura first? And what is the next name?

Would be funny if they collided in the Gulf. But perhaps they will prevent each other from developing?

 

Indeed - the Fujiwhara effect. Full discussion here but with caveat that tracks in 3-4 days time are speculative as both systems are having problems with dry air inflow and interaction with land

https://blog.weather.us/how-might-td13-and-td-14-interact-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-and-what-is-the-fujiwara-effect/

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That statement is factually inaccurate. 

The latest update from the NHC (which is a little old now as dated 1 August), stated that accumulated cyclone energy so far this year in the Atlantic basin is twice the long term mean, so well above average

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

The ACE is one thing but the real result have other factores um account 

but in fact that value is not resulting in terms of meaningful tropical systems, it’s
knowledge of the scientific community that in years with a very intense SAL could lead to
an intense cyclonic activity, however this is only a statistical correlation,
we cannot forget other key factors such the SST behavior in the Atlantic and the ENSO trend ...

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And some more on Fujiwhara (the 'h' in his name appears to be optional)

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/tropical-storm-laura-and-tropical-depression-14-predicted-to-converge-in-gulf-of-mexico/

NHC now has Laura (the one originating in the Atlantic) forecast to arrive over New Orleans as a hurricane Wed 8pm local time after surviving what looks like a bruising encounter with Cuba - that restricts it to a TS until intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico)

TD 14 (the one originating in the Caribbean) has now been upgraded to TS Marco and is forecast to arrive a day earlier, Tue at 8pm, at the other end of Louisiana, about 300km away from Laura, but not to reach hurricane status. I'd be rather surprised if Marco doesn't make it to hurricane, given that it's the first storm to tap into the warmth of the sea in the Gulf this year - also see the wind field shown in the link above.

 

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https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1297246252866981891

Well, that'd be something to see .

Having two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at once would already be exceptional. Let alone them both striking the same bordering US state.

Good job there's plenty of time for differences in timing to prevent this horrendous scenario from playing out!

 

p.s. Marco's formation this morning takes 2020 to 13 named storms TEN days sooner than the previous record, jointly held by 2011 and 2005.

Yet accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is only 33rd highest - testament to the strangely narrow intensity range of the named storms so far (weak TS to category 1 hurricane).

With an active MJO passage taking place in the coming ten days, this really ought to change sooner than later, with something stronger developing. Some of the tropically specialised model runs predict Marco to be that ceiling-raiser, reaching major hurricane status while it traverses the GoM.

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Latest NHC update has both Storms hitting Louisiana as Hurricanes, one Monday, one Wednesday. Of course things may change.