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I’m sure all CETers are polishing their predictions and sending them by PM to Global Warming. Thought I’d start this thread as an aide memoire to anyone who might have forgotten
Hope March is not all sixes and sevens. Or a tale of three sections. Anyway, Prediction shall be PM'nd .
This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during March, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
Historic CET summary for March
1971-2000 6.3C (30 years)
1981-2010 6.3C (30 years)
2000-2019 6.6C (last 20 years)
The temperature in March has varied significantly in recent years. We have had 3 cold years, 2013, 2016 and 2018 (with just 2.7C in 2013). All three were under 6C. But 2012, 2017 and 2019 were all very warm. 2017 saw 8.7C.
Here is a chart of the March CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
CHART
Current model output
GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Contingency planners - Met Office
Temperature Summary - above average
Better bump this up! Could a mod please sticky it? Thank you.
Just stickied it Caz.
Met Office Hadley 5.3c. Anomaly 0.7c. Provisional to 1st.
Metcheck 4.11c Anomaly -2.05c
Netweather 5.63c Anomaly -0.68c
Peasedown St John 5.3c. Anomaly -0.97c.
It will be sods law if March turned out to be the coldest month of the `winter`
Here are the March predictions and the first look at the March CET tracker
TABLE
CHART1
CHART2
Thanks GW!
There’s quite a group around the 7c mark!
Met Office Hadley 5.0c. Anomaly 0.4c. Provisional to 2nd.
Metcheck 4.09c Anomaly -2.07c
Netweather 4.97c Anomaly -1.34c
Peasedown St John 5.3c Anomaly -0.97c.
Met Office Hadley 5.1c. Anomaly 0.6c. Provisional to 3rd.
Metcheck 4.14c Anomaly -2.02c
Netweather 4.97c Anomaly 1.34c
Peasedown St John 5.4c Anomaly 0.87c.
I really need a cold spell this month
Met Office Hadley 4.9c. Anomaly 0.3c. Provisional to 4th.
Metcheck 4.17c Anomaly -1.99c
Netweather 4.88c Anomaly -1.43c
Met Office Hadley 4.8c. Anomaly 0.1c. Provisional to 5th.
Metcheck 3.98c Anomaly -2.18c
Netweather 4.8c Anomaly -1.51c
Met Office Hadley 4.8c. Anomaly 0.1c. Provisional to 5th.Metcheck 3.98c Anomaly -2.18cNetweather 4.8c Anomaly -1.51cPeasedown St John 5.3c Anomaly -0.97c.
Met Office Hadley 4.7c. Anomaly -0.1c. Provisional to 6th.
Metcheck 4.15c Anomaly -2.01c
Netweather 4.66c Anomaly -1.65c
Peasedown St John 5.4c Anomaly -1.65c.
Prediction 6.98c Anomaly -1.58c.
Met Office Hadley 5.0c. Anomaly 0.1c. Provisional to 7th.
Metcheck 4.90c Anomaly -1.26c
Netweather 5.17c Anomaly -1.14c
Peasedown St John 5.9c Anomaly -0.37c.
Here is the latest March CET tracker