Met Office Hadley          6.8c.       Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       6.67c      Anomaly      0.51c

Netweather                    7.25c      Anomaly      0.96c

Peasedown St John      7.7c.       Anomaly       1.43c.    

Here is the latest March CET tracker

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CHART1

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Simon turned out to be spot on with this so I eat my words 

Could be downhill now though for a while with the colder nights. Perhaps milder again in the last few days?

Simon turned out to be spot on with this so I eat my words 

Could be downhill now though for a while with the colder nights. Perhaps milder again in the last few days?

Met Office Hadley        6.8c.      Anomaly     1.5c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                     6.61c     Anomaly     0.45c

Netweather                  7.2c       Anomaly     0.91c

Peasedown St John    7.7c.      Anomaly      1.43c.       

Always a dangerous game to try and pin point the finishing number after only 2/3rds of a month has elapsed.  Nevertheless, my best guess is a finish around 6.5 c at this stage, though possibly lower.  Others may take a different view?

Met Office Hadley         6.8c      Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      6.51c    Anomaly       0.35c

Netweather                   7.15c    Anomaly       0.86c

Peasedown St John     7.6c       Anomaly      1.33c. 

Met Office Hadley        6.8c.      Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     6.42c     Anomaly       0.26c

Netweather                  7.08c     Anomaly       0.79c

Peasedown St John    7.6c       Anomaly       1.33c.    

I'm surprised it hasn't started to drop

I'm disappointed it hasn't 

Ideally a fall to close to 6c, with a downward adjustment, and I'll be happy. 

I'm surprised it hasn't started to drop

Met Office Hadley           6.7c.        Anomaly        1.03c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                        6.39c       Anomaly         0.23c

Netweather                     7.04c       Anomaly         0.75c

Peasedown St John      7.05c.       Anomaly         1.23c. 

Met Office Hadley          6.8c        Anomaly       1.3c. Provisional to 24th.  Highest this month 6.9c Anomaly 1.6c 

Metcheck                       6.47c      Anomaly        0.31c

Netweather                    7.7c        Anomaly        0.82c

Peasedown St John      7.7c        Anomaly        1.43c.           

Met Office Hadley          6.8c        Anomaly       1.3c. Provisional to 24th.  Highest this month 6.9c Anomaly 1.6c 

Metcheck                       6.47c      Anomaly        0.31c

Netweather                    7.7c        Anomaly        0.82c

Peasedown St John      7.7c        Anomaly        1.43c.           

A rough estimate using raw GFS numbers keeps the CET near where it is now to 27th, then knocks close to half a degree off during the final four days for a finish at about 6.3°C.

Difficult to gauge how bias will affect this. So far during this very clear spell of weather, GFS has been well-underestimating daytime maximums in the CET region but most of the nights have been at least little below what its numbers.

It looks breezier for the CET region during the weekend, which may reduce or remove the overnight bias, but winds may fall light again for the final two days of the month, bringing that back into play.

There's also the post-month adjustment to factor in, which is more often down than up. 

So, could be that 6.3°C is a reasonable expectation after all. About 3/4 of a degree below my guesstimate for this month - I made the mistake of giving CFSv2 a tiny bit of influence over my decision; it showed a very mild pattern for the final week, which swayed me from going for a CET very close to the 1981-2010 average .

Ah well, I'm glad of the sunny weather, regardless .

A rough estimate using raw GFS numbers keeps the CET near where it is now to 27th, then knocks close to half a degree off during the final four days for a finish at about 6.3°C.

Difficult to gauge how bias will affect this. So far during this very clear spell of weather, GFS has been well-underestimating daytime maximums in the CET region but most of the nights have been at least little below what its numbers.

It looks breezier for the CET region during the weekend, which may reduce or remove the overnight bias, but winds may fall light again for the final two days of the month, bringing that back into play.

There's also the post-month adjustment to factor in, which is more often down than up. 

So, could be that 6.3°C is a reasonable expectation after all. About 3/4 of a degree below my guesstimate for this month - I made the mistake of giving CFSv2 a tiny bit of influence over my decision; it showed a very mild pattern for the final week, which swayed me from going for a CET very close to the 1981-2010 average .

Ah well, I'm glad of the sunny weather, regardless .

I'd like a downwards adjustment from 6.3c

Met Office Hadley        6.9c.       Anomaly       1.4c

Metcheck                     6.48c      Anomaly        0.32c

Netweather                  7.14c      Anomaly        0.85c

Peasedown St John     7.8c       Anomaly        1.53c. 

I'd like an upwards revision (but am unlikely to get it!)

What has been welcome is this extended spell of dry weather here in Kent which is finally giving an opportunity for some of the ground to dry out somwhat. Sunny days with frosty early mornings takes a bit of beating.

I'd like an upwards revision (but am unlikely to get it!)

What has been welcome is this extended spell of dry weather here in Kent which is finally giving an opportunity for some of the ground to dry out somwhat. Sunny days with frosty early mornings takes a bit of beating.

Met Office Hadley         6.9c.       Anomaly        1.4c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      6.45c      Anomaly        0.36c

Netweather                   7.1c        Anomaly        0.81c

Peasedown St John    7.8c         Anomaly        1.53c.   

Met Office Hadley          6.9c.       Anomaly       1.3c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                       6.47c      Anomaly        0.31c

Netweather                    7.08c      Anomaly        0.79c

Peasedown St John     7.8c         Anomaly        1.53c.