CFS seasonal temperature charts for December to February and January to March have lost the blue and have either gone white or orange, in fact all months through to July don't go below normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: WeatherExpert81 

They change all the time anyway, never look at them!

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

if they show a mild winter Gavin D posts them

if they show a cold winter Gavin P posts them

CFS seasonal temperature charts for December to February and January to March have lost the blue and have either gone white or orange, in fact all months through to July don't go below normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

They change all the time anyway, never look at them!

Originally Posted by: WeatherExpert81 

LOL

if they show a mild winter Gavin D posts them

if they show a cold winter Gavin P posts them

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Actually I've more or less stopped posting CFS charts altogether. The model appears to have got worse in the last few months.

When you see how its backtracking on its mega La Nina forecast in just a couple of weeks you just can't have any confidence in the model or its outcomes;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/nino34SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

In the words of Joe B'astardi recently; "CFS really is a lousy model"

Thanks Matt and I like your update!!!!

I totally agree about a dramatic turnaround - I remember reading news of a heatwave in Moscow in the middle of October last year!! It was apparently the warmest October they'd ever had. Two weeks later, snow chaos!!!

Thanks Matt very interesting read - thanks for sharing the info from the ECM charts as most of us obviously won't have access to that level of information.  

There's nothing in the stratospheric temperature charts to support a negative AO for the moment (we're close to average) - however the ensemble forecasts are just hinting that it might towards mid Nov - so there's a signal coming from somewhere for this. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml

Here's the hemispheric view of that t384 chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&

I could just imagine a chunk of that real cold drifting down towards Scandinavia shortly afterwards.    Of course it's t384 so just a dream for the moment.

Thanks Matt.

I think GFS is starting to "see" this pattern change and I reakon we're heading for another split November.

After clicking for the N Hem charts and then selecting to animate them in a sequence you can clearly make out where the main vortex is predicted to be in the Arctic - on this particular run its in a good position for throwing deep cold in the general direction of NW Europe.

There are increasingly strong signs that a big pattern change will take place late this month. GFS gives us a very wet period of weather during the transition though, as it gradually eases the new pattern in rather than hurling it in like how it arrived during December 2009.

On thanking Matt, ditto to that!

The NAO is now neutral but we really must see this turning negative.

I see ECM's Nov-Jan is for milder than average, especially so for Scandi and the far N:

http://met.no/Sesongvarsel+november-januar.b7C_w7DK59.ips

I shouldn't have to remind everyone that ECM's seasonal forecasts have substantially bombed in the last couple of years.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Nov 2011 to Saturday 3 Dec 2011:

The first part of the period shows indications of temperatures remaining above normal, and rainfall amounts staying below average. However, amounts of sunshine look limited across the bulk of the country. Towards the end of November and into the start of December, temperatures are likely to return near to normal for the time of year, with rainfall and sunshine amounts closer to average too.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 4 Nov 2011

Winter ain't here yet. 

I think tallyho was refering to the very last 3 days of the extended forecast which covers the 1st 3 days of December. Although personally I wouldn't take it as gospel, as these things are very broad.

No hint of snow even for high ground from the met office so maybe the ECM 32 day model is not showing enough hints of a pattern change yet to convince the met office.

There's no need to lose sleep over the first 3 days of winter, there's 87 other days. 

 Thank goodness

I know things look grim at the moment but for those of us around at the time Summer/Autumn 2011 feels remarbably similar to Summer/Autumn 1978

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781104.gif

O.K. ill get my coat

Andy

You might need it by the end of November.

All eyes on the trends for the middle of the month . . .

I would say that from a pattern matching viewpoint things are quite positive for those that like it cold in winter. Many cold winters have been preceded by very mild and/or very wet weather in the second half of autumn. The example you give - autumn 1978 - is a classic. The mild weather persisted throughout October and November until a pattern switch about a week before the end of November.

The Met 30 dayer does talk about things turning cooler late in the month - But only cooling down to average. They are playing it safe as you would expect given we're probably two or three weeks away from any change.

If ECM is still showing a big switch late in the month next Friday, I would would expect a more interesting update.

Hopefully any cold 'snap' this November won't be as 'severe' as last November, because I don't want winter to end in late January again.

I hope it will be more severe and continue until February.

As for the period up to Christmas, there would be some who would say it couldn't be exactly like last year again. I agree. That's why I'm hoping for it to be colder

Having had the second coldest November week and second coldest December CET, it would be good to go one better on both of those counts this year

Pie in the sky I imagine, but boy do I wish

Will Hand over on UK Sci has posted that Exeter have hinted at a Major Strat warming event, he didnt say when but that may help with a pattern change