The spring was warmer, drier and sunnier on average and no-one will forget that spell of weather in a hurry towards the end of May in which the temperature down south reached 35°C with the first ever official tropical nights in May also being recorded down there.

In complete contrast to that, the latest model output suggests that the first half of this month in particular is likely to be more unsettled and a bit cooler. For some people, that might be a welcome change as not everybody likes the heat and a number of places are badly in need of some rain after yet another very dry spring to go along with what we experienced last year.

However, the vast majority of us will usually just be looking for what we would regard as a decent summer with that defined as one which is warmer, drier and sunnier than average, especially around the time that they are going to be on holiday. Based on what I have written above, there might well be a number of people who are thinking that we might well have already had our "summer" for this year and there has been quite a lot of years in the past when our best weather has actually occurred in the spring with the actual summer itself being poor.

With ongoing climate change, that appears to be becoming less likely to be the case with the trend going more towards hot ter, drier and possibly sunnier weather at this time of the year. Whilst the weather is more unsettled though, I would expect this thread to be fairly as a result although it is important to keep in mind that this is not just a moaning thread. If you are really happy with your weather, you can come on here to gloat about that and if you just want to give a general discussion on what is happening during this summer or to post the final statistics for this summer at the end of it, you are fully free to do so at your leisure as long as that conforms to Brian's forum rules of course.

"The world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned.

The powerful natural weather pattern, which raises global temperatures and worsens some rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

It found most models projected the return of the cyclical phenomenon in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” in strength, and possibly strong.

Scientists have previously warned that it could be the strongest this century. However, the WMO stopped short of backing such projections and said forecasters were still in a window of uncertainty."

Prepare for imminent return of El Niño, UN warns

Ajit Niranjan Europe environment correspondent

Tue, 2 June 2026 at 8:00 am BST

4 min read

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/prepare-imminent-return-el-ni-070040170.html 

Last year I managed 72 days straight here with a max of over 20c, I think Retron surpassed that by a few days - it will be interesting to see if we get anywhere near that this year, but that really all depends on July going straight through...

At last some good news! Weather was ok in Yorkshire Dales and we finally got some rain today in my region. In fact 19.7 mm - more than the total for April and May combined in a single day! Also it struck me just how green and lush everywhere was after I got out of the S.E corner.

Hard to believe a week ago it was 35c!

Have you considered a house swap with Fairweather?

🤣

If people are miserable because it's "cold" or wet, oh well... they've just had a record-breaking, phenomenal May heatwave, and a spell of normal weather for once is nice to see. It's only just summer, after all, and I honestly think people have forgotten what our weather should be like! That said nights are still well above average, 13.9 out there right now and that's more like late July or early August - high summer, but as it wasn't sunny from dawn to dusk yesterday it doesn't matter as much - the house isn't radiating yesterday's heat inside. 

It won't be long, I'm sure, before the Azores ridge returns and our run of well-above average temperatures returns. The "monsoon" only lasts 10 days or a fortnight usually, it's merely an artifact of the jet moving into its summer position.

I'd take it, but that would mean inflicting FW with this joy extreminating, cesspit of a climate and I like him too much to do that! 

You come from a different perspective than I, Retron! To 'see some rain.. for once''? It would be nice to see some dry weather ... for once here. Work needs and has to be done. And yes, a record breaking heatwave just gone, but that came with near record breaking dewpoints and still, poor drying after near constant rain... for months, beforehand. Some nice middle ground for a few weeks wouldn't go amiss! 

Ireland's known as the Emerald Isle for a reason! 😉 If your garden looked like mine you'd feel the same as I do, I expect! We've had some rain but it's done nothing to sort out the cracks... this one's an inch wide, for example.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/crack.jpg 

The farmland (with wheat) up the road from me has similar cracks, but it doesn't seem to have affected the wheat too badly yet.

Nice photo, and that sort of dryness is badly needed here. 

We are called 'the emerald isle, because it is a nice, sloganistic selling catchphrase designed to lure in tourists. Ireland is no 'greener' than the UK or France for example,, and the green bits you might see? they are far less in volume that the brown, featureless scrublands. 

This shitty weather has been relentless since October, and even for this rainy little island, this just isn't normal, and yes, we are traditionally in the driest part of the year now, but traditions are being broken this time around! And looking likely we'll break the June average rainfall by day 10 of the month if the models are in anyway correct. 

I recall looking at average pressure stats (for here, admitedly, but not much different from the UK) and the long-term daily average pressure, in general, tended to fall as the summer went on, suggesting that the 'euro monsoon', was more of a late summer thing. Again, this is just from memory but I still may have that CSV file on 'the cloud' somewhere and will take a look later on. 

The Euro monsoon is an early summer thing, what you're mentioning is the gradual transition towards autumn as the jet slowly sinks south again. I remember much discussion about this in the 90s over on usw, and after digging it's one Hubert Lamb we have to thank for it, a chap who was much spoken about in the early days of Net access but who's barely mentioned now. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/webarchive/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fblogs%2Fpaulhudson%2Fentries%2F2034a3cf-e517-3432-a412-21b5dc53cfe2 

Another part of his work was to analyse weather patterns over 100 years to try and see if any repeat themselves across the UK, with some success.

One of his main findings was a change of pattern from around the middle of June, which, in his words, saw the ‘return of the westerlies’.

By looking at climate data he discovered, more often than not, the Atlantic would re-assert itself around or just after mid-June, bringing changeable weather once more across our shores.

This would follow a period when westerly winds were at their weakest.

I've always thought of it as an early rather than mid-June thing - perhaps I've misremembered, perhaps I'm going by my own experiences, perhaps due to global warming it's moved a couple of weeks earleir. Who knows, but what I do know is it's one of the more reliable things to look for in terms of "at this time of year, it does x". 

As for those cracks, trust me - you don't want them. Not only does it cause cracks in the lawn, but it leads to subsidence if you're unlucky - as it causes foundations and the buildings above to shift. I know Ireland has a reputation for being soggy (there's undoubtedly marketing at work in the "emerald isle" moniker, but there's a grain of truth to it as well). I think if you ever came on a holiday to Kent, Essex, Sussex, London - you'd be surprised at how arid it is these days most summers! It really is a world away, and of late the contrasts seem to have been getting greater... to the point where even the wolf centre at Reading, 100 miles away, is invariably greener and lusher, with more rain, than is the case here. 20 years ago it was much of a muchness, perhaps a bit drier here but not massively so.

Thanks for that, Retron.. Love these sort of readings. 

He's right about May (esp late) and early June being the 'least westerly' on average. I know this because comparing long termp daily pressure stats (via ERA) between Malin & Valentia, the average pressure at Malin was slightly higher than Valentia on a few (average( days between mid-May & mid-June. Not everyday, mind, but enough to raise the eyebrow. Just anecdotal, but he is also spot on about late July/early August tending to be the more reliable 'thundery period', though mid/late June seems to be another hot spot as well, at least here locally. 

I do miss our old friend from Aberdeen in these threads too.

He is still active on Netweather's forum though under the username of Richard2901.

I would say that he appears to have toned down his language a little bit in comparison to what he used to post on here (by that, he mean that he doesn't use those terms such as suicide-inducing over there which he often used on here) but apart from that, he still hasn't really changed and is still rarely ever happy with the weather in his area.

Another excellent night's sleep beckons. 😁 I'm really making the most of this as I know it won't be long before the usual dross returns. 

Today marks the transition back to reality, a warm front with drizzle and the dewpoint rising by a good 10 degrees compared to yesterday. It won't be warm but it'll feel crud, and then of course a solid week of warm, sunny weather beckons (at least according to the Met Office raw!)

No need for heating here btw, it's not been below 18C indoors and even then it's reached 18 only briefly in the early morning. My thermostat (when it's turned on) is set to 17...

Used to put on before but not anymore since i have this conservatory built in April 2024.  I was shivering in the house all the time before and rarely go over 19C.  I was watching the first glass panel put in then the rest later then the roof put in. Once the men went home I open the patio doors to greet the warmth air flowing to chilly living room to bring indoor temps 23C from 19C as it reached 32C so I felt very emotional that day and my suffering from cold indoors which was the case in recent cold 2020 summers onward except 2022 had ended.  Soon the heating was off last time on 27th April 2024 then last year last day was 27th March and this year 4th April.   Any cold spells like last month which forced many put in heating on mine stayed off.   This month cold unsettled weather failed to make my house cold by staying low to mid 20s and between 25 to 33 in the conservatory.  That the main reason I installed to stay warm throughout regardless the weather outside.  

Nice. 

A real thunderstorm drought going on in this neck of the woods. I don't think I have heard a single clap of thunder this year so far, which even for here, is extraordinary.