The Weather Outlook

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Roger Parsons
15 February 2026 15:40:13

A spectacular unexpected snowfall today - over 3   Cm in 4 hours of heavy snow !! 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

☹☹☹


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

nsrobins
16 February 2026 10:53:47

A spectacular unexpected snowfall today - over 3   Cm in 4 hours of heavy snow !! 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I’m pleased for you, but it illustrates how low the bar is set now for winter expectations. I can’t wait until this pitiful excuse of a winter, where the only snow I’ve seen falling was on a trip to Newcastle in late November (technically Autumn).

And we now move from average to cool rain to mild rain for a few weeks. What joy lol 😂 


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Brian Gaze
16 February 2026 11:05:17
Snowing heavily again in the French alps.

https://www.portetta.com/en/ski-and-recreation/snow-camera/ 

Snow depths must now be well above the average for the time of the year. If this trend continues I wonder whether it could have an impact on our summer weather patterns? Bad news for the heat hounds?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Saint Snow
16 February 2026 12:21:44
Whilst the stats will show we've (IMBY) had worse winters (at least I got lying snow for a few days in January), this winter will for me go down as one of the most hated. Because it feels like we've had multiple juicy carrots dangled in front of our eyes, then snatched away.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

tallyho_83
17 February 2026 11:53:01
This evening and tonight's system will bring the SW more heavy rain and tomorrow system which was due to be a sleet and snow over moors has now shifted further north and with the south just getting cold rain AGAIN! What a disaster this winter has turned out to be for southerner's. Meanwhile E Europe go cold and N. America go back into the freezer whilst we get springlike weather this weekend. Oh and this is an easterly QBO in combination of a la Nina and we couldn't even get a SSW let alone reverse the zonal winds. Pathetic. Roll on spring ! Seriously had enough of this endless wind and rain day after day - I can't dry clothes, potholes damaging my tyres, can't mow the law or weed it as I am moving house, and I can't even walk outside without getting soaked etc - no wonder so many people are depressed. Wouldn't surprise me if Richard of Aberdeen has been sectioned by now under the mental health act because of this weather they (Aberdeen) have had their fair share of overcast gloomy days although they did at least see a lot of snow in January. But sun lifts our mood it contains vitamin D and we seem to lack it in this country!! Absolutely shocking this weather. Not one air frost this February either. Southern parts of the UK have been saturated. Esp the south west. People are fed up!!

I know I am clutching at straws but at least if we have a hot dry spring and summer then there would be plenty of water in our reservoirs and rivers left from all the rain that fell this winter thanks to the Atlantic. Just be nice if we could see the sun for more than a few hours!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Jiries
18 February 2026 09:44:32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU 

Lovely to see snow falling in health temperatures of -12C and people enjoying it a lot.  Seeing this on their live cam reminded me of the 1980's snowfalls with SUBZERO maxes and powdery.   Not interested with less cold and cold rain here tonight as some think we will get snow but sorry the temperatures is LESS COLD all the time.  

Since Scandinavia, Europe, USA had a very good cold winter but UK missed out a chance for a good winter so what will happen next year? if Europe are mild and Scandinavia might not get a good winter like last year meaning we can't get anything cold chances at all.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 February 2026 09:47:21
https://news.cam.ac.uk/p/6DCH-PCB/whats-caught-our-eye-this-february 

Scroll down to 'Winter in 1963' and see what even lowland winter could be like

I spent a month of daily exercise skating to Grantchester and back but wish I'd taken photos


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

doctormog
18 February 2026 17:47:22
If people like snow you would have loved the first ten days of the year here, they were incredible. It’s just a pity it has been generally rubbish since then (although we had a little snow and cover over the last couple of days, but that has gone again now).

On the hills and mountains in contrast, because of the lack of any really mild conditions, it has been great for skiing over the midterm break. Today has been a little less pleasant due to the stronger winds.


Retron
18 February 2026 17:56:34

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU 

Lovely to see snow falling in health temperatures of -12C and people enjoying it a lot.  Seeing this on their live cam reminded me of the 1980's snowfalls with SUBZERO maxes and powdery. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Last seen here, oh so briefly, in 2018. And that took record-breaking cold air aloft and record-breakingly low thicknesses to happen. And, being that it was March, it all went "poof" the microsecond that we lost that deep cold Continental air. 

It all seems so long ago now, like a shimmering mirage, a dream that you can't quite remember. The snowless period here (in terms of snowcover) is now unprecedented in the last half-century, and I feel for those who, like me, just want to see some snow on the ground. It really shouldn't be too much to ask but this winter in particular has felt like one long tease!


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
18 February 2026 19:12:02
Very poor winter for snow here (though I'm not bothered by that) but the scant amount of frosts, which were never heavy, has been astounding. At the same time, very little in the way of those typically mild days you get in winter.  No gales or major rainstorms, notable lack of those lovely winter night lightning shows over the western sky. This winter has just been nothing at all. Always chily and dank, but never cold enough. Always wet, but only in that 'constantly spitting from a low grey sky' sort of way. Will be glad to see the back of this winter to be honest. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Quantum
18 February 2026 19:34:39
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-scotland-faces-longest-wait-to-reach-12c-in-40-years 

I've noticed the same with my own temperature observations. No day this year has managed double digits yet, very unusual.

It may not be the coldest winter I've experienced, but it might well be the un-mildest one!


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

tallyho_83
18 February 2026 19:50:59

Very poor winter for snow here (though I'm not bothered by that) but the scant amount of frosts, which were never heavy, has been astounding. At the same time, very little in the way of those typically mild days you get in winter.  No gales or major rainstorms, notable lack of those lovely winter night lightning shows over the western sky. This winter has just been nothing at all. Always chily and dank, but never cold enough. Always wet, but only in that 'constantly spitting from a low grey sky' sort of way. Will be glad to see the back of this winter to be honest. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Exactly and even more frustrating is the fact that there has been substantial and long periods of high latitude northern blocking in Greenland & Scandinavia yet we (UK) still failed to get proper cold air and to see the cold air just on our doorstep with pretty much 2 thirds for Europe in the freezer with the core in N.E Europe bitterly cold and then repeated cold Arctic plunges into eastern 2 thirds of USA/Canada is incredibly frustrating and on top of that we have not had a reversal of zonal winds despite being in a la Nina winter in combination with easterly QBO. SO near yet so far!?

I was watching GavsWeatherVids the other day and he believes may be that one of the factors of us being unlucky with us not getting any  sustained cold could be the warming of Ocean in NE Pacific and also the fact that the Easterly QBO has been very strong this winter and sometimes an exceptionally strong easterly QBO can scupper our chances altogether of getting colder weather.

Another reason I think could be solar maximum. - Anyways, if this is the case - why is it so many other countries saw record breaking amounts of snow and cold!?

Also, the persistent cold weather in NE America hasn't helped as it has blasted up the jet and given us (UK) cyclogenisis time after time. Others may argue that it is the tilt of the block which has been more SE'ly rather than easterly and of course this meant low pressure systems are not passing though the country to give is even the briefest of NW'ly's between frontal systems and the low pressure systems  stalled over us before fizzling out before another developed to our west and so on etc...

It's proved costly for many and these potholes are everywhere now here in Devon.

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 February 2026 20:44:17
The current synoptics and associated pptn would be causing mayhem if it were a couple of degrees cooler
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Retron
19 February 2026 03:48:35

Ewe have not had a reversal of zonal winds d

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

We had this chat back in November, where we saw a rare early SSW. Whether the blocking that then set up a few weeks later was due to it is up for discussion, but we definitely had an SSW. The ECM-46 also, correctly, picked out the colder spell well in advance. As I said at the time (not quoted), it's always worth paying attention when the ECM-46 shows average or below in winter, as it's pretty rare for it to do so.

The ECM analysis shows that we did achieve an SSW yesterday morning, the third such one recorded in November. The other two were also at the end of the month and neither of them seemed to deliver much in the way of snow afterwards - they were also during an easterly QBO and were also both displacement rather than split events. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511280000 

The 45-day ECM weekly charts show a gradual cooling trend through December, with Christmas week being average (ref 91-20 means) over most of the UK, so worth keeping an eye on.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511280000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

EDIT: And IMO Gavin's IMO wrong as to why we didn't get much of a winter this year. It's quite simply global warming - it means the margins for error are getting ever-smaller for us, a tiny island perched on the edge of a massive ocean, or, as I've said before, we now need 5 sixes rather than just 2 when we roll the dice. Remember we've warmed 1.5C down here in 30 years! 


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
19 February 2026 04:35:45

Last seen here, oh so briefly, in 2018. And that took record-breaking cold air aloft and record-breakingly low thicknesses to happen. And, being that it was March, it all went "poof" the microsecond that we lost that deep cold Continental air. 

It all seems so long ago now, like a shimmering mirage, a dream that you can't quite remember. The snowless period here (in terms of snowcover) is now unprecedented in the last half-century, and I feel for those who, like me, just want to see some snow on the ground. It really shouldn't be too much to ask but this winter in particular has felt like one long tease!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Perhaps if the models didn’t exist we might had got this winter to be one that we used to see in the 1980s.  It always in my mind about those and felt it absolutely normal to get deep freeze at times as the season say winter.   

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2026 07:08:21
Youve lost me again Jiries. 
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

doctormog
19 February 2026 07:10:41

Perhaps if the models didn’t exist we might had got this winter to be one that we used to see in the 1980s.  It always in my mind about those and felt it absolutely normal to get deep freeze at times as the season say winter.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Why would removing computer models change the weather? 

I guess in a very convoluted argument you could consider the energy requirements and the associated carbon emissions but I suspect that would be negligible in the overall picture.


lanky
19 February 2026 08:17:17

Perhaps if the models didn’t exist we might had got this winter to be one that we used to see in the 1980s.  It always in my mind about those and felt it absolutely normal to get deep freeze at times as the season say winter.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

That can only happen to subatomic particles when the act of observation collapses the particles waveform (decoherence).  This is a problem in quantum computing but never seen in global weather patterns so far as I know


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2026 08:36:22
Where's Q?

AI Overview

Decoherence is:

The process by which a quantum system loses its quantum properties—such as superposition and entanglement—due to interactions with its surrounding environment. It explains the transition from quantum to classical behaviour, causing system states to effectively collapse into definite, observable outcomes, which is a major hurdle in maintaining stable qubits for quantum computing.

I'm suffering from incoherence after reading all that.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Lumi
19 February 2026 14:55:51

Why would removing computer models change the weather? 

I guess in a very convoluted argument you could consider the energy requirements and the associated carbon emissions but I suspect that would be negligible in the overall picture.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Do these machines use water for cooling. If so did they contribute to the drought conditions we had last year also. (my tongue in cheek moment - sorry in advance)


Thurlstone

South Yorkshire

230m AMSL

Roger Parsons
19 February 2026 17:49:58
Private Eye says it all!

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGB7_osCwZ9sA/feedshare-shrink_2048_1536/B4EZx27.qdGsAk-/0/1771521961005?e=1773273600&v=beta&t=Ovt8eWbotvZbfiLxM5RlHEFBHtZ33RLFJgvEoNESklY 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Gandalf The White
20 February 2026 07:14:38

Why would removing computer models change the weather? 

I guess in a very convoluted argument you could consider the energy requirements and the associated carbon emissions but I suspect that would be negligible in the overall picture.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

You might, in a similar way, ponder how much social media/web sites,  run on similar servers, could have contributed to reducing the prospects for cold and snowy weather… 🤔😉🙂


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
20 February 2026 07:16:39

I hope it’s rust proof 😄


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Brian Gaze
20 February 2026 07:45:46
You know you're getting long in the tooth if you're surprised to learn we've just had a "cold" and "wintry spell" of weather. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
20 February 2026 07:58:59

You know you're getting long in the tooth if you're surprised to learn we've just had a "cold" and "wintry spell" of weather. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

LOL, how very true.  I guess if ‘we’ excludes everywhere south of a line from The Severn Estuary to The Wash it might perhaps qualify?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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