The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 July 2025 21:55:26
The action has started with an area of heavy rain and thunder coming ashore between Eastbourne and Hastings (2300 hours Fri)

A larger area of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is currently over the Channel Islands and is forecast to move up and come ashore between Brighton and Chichester at about 5 am Sat while the previous area slides off to affect the E Kent and Essex coasts. The second area is forecast to consolidate and move northwards - current forecast puts it from London to Nottingham mid-morning Sat and N England/Scottish borders mid-afternoon


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

idj20
18 July 2025 23:34:46

Bit of a damp squib with occasional flashing and 2.4 mm of rain so far. Nothing like what I had a few weeks ago. Don't think it's worth staying up to spectate any further. 😁


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
fairweather
19 July 2025 00:30:21

First batch of heavy rain has missed me by 5 miles to my East ! Now hoping for a direct hit in the early hours - is this the promised 100mm in 4 hours. I do hope so - we're supposed to like extremes if they don't affect us personally apparently and I am not in a flood risk area.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
19 July 2025 01:16:58

First batch of heavy rain has missed me by 5 miles to my East ! Now hoping for a direct hit in the early hours - is this the promised 100mm in 4 hours. I do hope so - we're supposed to like extremes if they don't affect us personally apparently and I am not in a flood risk area.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I think you will miss most of it. Perhaps Monday you might get something. 

Looks like I am in direct firing line of the next batch coming up but hopefully it will swing west a bit but my brown grass of course needs it.  


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

picturesareme
19 July 2025 02:05:02

Not a great deal of electrical activity showing on radar at the moment, however still some torrential downpours about.

Retron
19 July 2025 03:42:23

I was woken up by some heavy rain drumming on the roof around midnight... sleepily I removed the air-con hose from the bedroom across the hallway... and then I had a lovely dream about my roof being blown off by a freak gust and neither the roofer who relaid it a couple of years ago nor the insurance company would help. I woke up in a sweat and that was it - I'm zonked!

Anyway, light rain continues with some heavy stuff just to the south on the radar, followed by not much else at the moment - the next thrust is much further west.

There's been 12mm so far, with a fair bit more to come *if* that heavy stuff makes it here intact.


Leysdown, north Kent
warrenb
19 July 2025 05:20:40
Well a damp squib so far here in the amber warning area. Actually started to rain about 45 minutes ago and 4mm so far. Rain split as it came ashore last night and we had nothing.
Crepuscular Ray
19 July 2025 05:50:16

Quite disappointed this morning here in Nottingham. No storms overnight and no lightning this morning, even in the Amber area 🤔 

I suppose the rain is needed but no drama so far


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Retron
19 July 2025 06:04:53

In the end the really heavy stuff (rates >32mm/hour) fizzled before getting here, despite only being a few miles away.

And the MetO forecast has downgraded the rain for the rest of the day as of its 5 AM update - it was still showing several more hours of heavy rain as of half four. 

Still, there's been 19mm of rain so far from this event and - as a bonus - it's gloomy and overcast. That will help cool things down indoors, as it's still a sweltering 27C in here!


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
19 July 2025 06:43:50

The current rain rate is 6.6mm/hr and so far we've had 3.4mm. No thundery activity at all.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Roger Parsons
19 July 2025 06:55:20
A clear sunrise was replaced by grey skies and a gusty southerly wind. No rainfall - yet. No - a light drizzle is just starting and the wind has dropped.
RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

idj20
19 July 2025 07:00:40

Apparently there hadn't been any further lightning activity over Kent during the rest of the night but my back yard weather station's rain gauge is showing 19.6 mm had fallen in the early hours, much to the delight of my parched lawn as well as having done a good job in washing away the nearby nightclub 3 am closing time drunks.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 07:07:30
Woke up and observed the ground outside to be slightly damp but not even a hint of a puddle. Very dull morning with the sky a uniform grey.

I was anticipating something more dramatic.


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 July 2025 07:11:03

Only light to moderate rain here - good for the garden but not the stuff of which warnings are made.

BBC News (not weather) still running with the idea of probable flash flooding but although there's some heavy rain around, the Meto rain radar is predicting a smaller area and less intense than it was last night


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
19 July 2025 07:23:14

The rain rate history on TWO uses a thinned grid. Nonetheless, the rates don't seem that impressive TBH. A few examples at the higher end:

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

warrenb
19 July 2025 07:50:36
Well that looks like that is it from here in the heart of the amber warning zone. 0 lightning and 9mm of rain. Another short term epic fail
Jiries
19 July 2025 08:16:51

Yawn, bog standard general rain, yawn.  This pointless unsettled weather had outstayed it welcome far too long now.

Had my fix with thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Philippines, reminding me past storms we used to get here.

MRazzell
19 July 2025 08:21:08

Well that looks like that is it from here in the heart of the amber warning zone. 0 lightning and 9mm of rain. Another short term epic fail

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Its a similarly depressing story 7 or 8 miles south of you. When we left Eridge Park around 11pm last night the skies to our south were visibly electric, but ultimately it seemed to split and pass mostly to our SE (Tenterden) and SW (Brighton). The local rain shield perseveres. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
bledur
19 July 2025 08:21:39

Looking at Met Office Sferics , Zero lightning atm🤔

Crepuscular Ray
19 July 2025 08:25:33

Looks like the first new storm of today is breaking out over the western Borders?

No activity south of that or even in northern France. Wonder what went wrong this time 🤔


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Gandalf The White
19 July 2025 08:28:04

Looks like the first new storm of today is breaking out over the western Borders?

No activity south of that or even in northern France. Wonder what went wrong this time 🤔

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Well, whatever went wrong, it fooled every forecaster and pretty much all the computer models.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 08:40:30

Beginning to look like a damp squib. And not very damp at that.

Given the recent curious reluctance of any passing clouds to deliver any actual rainfall IMBY I did have a feeling that this was not going to be as billed.


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

The Beast from the East
19 July 2025 08:43:22
I probably copped the worst of it, no thunder but heavy rain.  Much needed for the garden of course.

Monday's event looks more significant and longer lasting. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

fairweather
19 July 2025 08:49:08

In the end the really heavy stuff (rates >32mm/hour) fizzled before getting here, despite only being a few miles away.

And the MetO forecast has downgraded the rain for the rest of the day as of its 5 AM update - it was still showing several more hours of heavy rain as of half four. 

Still, there's been 19mm of rain so far from this event and - as a bonus - it's gloomy and overcast. That will help cool things down indoors, as it's still a sweltering 27C in here!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Gutted - I mentioned in the precipitation thread that it looked like you'd got lucky this time. Just 6mm here 25 miles away and not a puddle in sight. Did anybody get the severe storms and 100mm of life threatening flash floods or was this just more click bait for the UKMO You Tube Channels?


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
19 July 2025 08:51:30

I probably copped the worst of it, no thunder but heavy rain.  Much needed for the garden of course.

Monday's event looks more significant and longer lasting. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Probably. My hard working daughter who's had a bad time recently is having a deserved 3 day break in Christchurch  to soak up sun as she thought. Leaves tomorrow comes back Wednesday morning!


S.Essex, 42m ASL

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