WX temps: in week 1 near norm in W Europe , much above in the east though this still leaves that area below freezing. In week 2 some very much colder air appears near the Urals,even some in Finland, but not getting further east. Atlantic countries (Spain, France, Britain) mild. Pptn in week 1 in the Med, Europe dry; in week 2 some rain working in across Atlantic coastal countries.
GFS Op 00z: current HP moves across to the Baltic and stays there until Sun 16th, generating a flow between E-ly and S-ly for W Europe including Britain. There are small cold pools in this flow but nothing really cold as the origin of the air is the E Mediterranean. The Atlantic starts pushing in 985mb Tue 18th N Ireland and 1000mb N England Sat 22nd, but bringing air from the N Atlantic with Britain on the wring side of the 850hPa line, so expect cold rain.
ECM: resembles GFS
GEM: has a more extensive cold pool from midweek Wed 12th, and then activates the Atlantic a couple of days earlier, but with LP 985mb heading further S, to Portugal Sat 15th, thus a stronger E-ly for Britain.
GEFS: In the S, more unsettled than shown yesterday, with small amounts of rain (low chance of snow earlier, heavier rain in SW later,) on and off for the next two weeks; In the N mainly dry for the first week, possible snow flurries, then small amounts of rain. Temps generally cool or cold until Wed 13th then the mean with majority of ens members near norm, just the control and a couple of followers offering something cold from Tue 18th.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl