The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
04 February 2025 13:01:19

I wonder if the models which were very cold a few days ago were picking up on the Stratospheric Warming @ 10hpa and the split of the PV? I just realise now the Stratospheric Warming and split has backed off the model runs seem to have trended milder ? What are your thoughts? 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I honestly feel they are unconnected. The slightly less cold runs are due to complicated interactions between the Scandi high and atlantic troughs trying to move in from the west (these troughs I should add are actually doing us a favour in pushing the Scandi high further north). The stratospheric warming occured much later on and well away from any of this stuff; as I said in a previous comment the stratosphere and troposphere are not well coupled and do not really affect each other much. It is true that SSWs which is a truly extreme event in the stratosphere can eventually cause a few ripples in the troposphere but it is weeks later and a much weaker response relatively speaking.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+2
Brian Gaze
04 February 2025 13:06:33

I honestly feel they are unconnected. The slightly less cold runs are due to complicated interactions between the Scandi high and atlantic troughs trying to move in from the west (these troughs I should add are actually doing us a favour in pushing the Scandi high further north). The stratospheric warming occured much later on and well away from any of this stuff; as I said in a previous comment the stratosphere and troposphere are not well coupled and do not really affect each other much. It is true that SSWs which is a truly extreme event in the stratosphere can eventually cause a few ripples in the troposphere but it is weeks later and a much weaker response relatively speaking.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Agree. IMO this possible event is another level of abstraction which may have impacts further down the line but not in the time period being discussed.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

fairweather
04 February 2025 13:12:11

From what I have seen over recent days, the only model charts which showed anything even approaching a full-blown easterly were in deepest FI, therefore a very long way from a cast-iron certainty or anything close to it.

As things stand at this moment in time, we still have to get the HP to build over the British Isles which is due to start happening tomorrow. Once the HP is in place as indicated we shall see what transpires from then on in. Those of us that have been in this business for a long time will know that the models often struggle with blocked set-ups to one degree or another, so nothing should be ruled in or out at this juncture in my view.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Well a week away to be precise. Some excellent agreement in ensembles for a decent easterly to start in the S.E this coming weekend if you look back at them last Sunday and the related posts on here. Not now though agreed.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Dub Version
04 February 2025 13:20:44
We will be staring down the barrel of a mini beast by Friday

Dont worry

Berkshire
idj20
04 February 2025 13:27:19

We will be staring down the barrel of a mini beast by Friday

Dont worry

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

All two hours of a cool waft. 😂 Some models are showing some slight wintry precipitation (most likely light cold rain) for my location in the late hours of Friday/early hours of Saturday morning but I'll be fast asleep to care too much about it. 

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Hippydave
04 February 2025 13:37:23
I think you'd have to say there's decent agreement for a warm up in the 850s from somewhere between 8th and 10th Feb across the various models, albeit likely to remain cool at the surface for a while past that point. 850s aren't particularly low during the initial cold push, so wintry showers rather than snow look more likely (as per UKV for this Saturday). 

Thereafter and going by the GEFS, 850s a couple of degrees above average is favoured but there's a couple of main patterns as you head through FI - a more unsettled set up, so mildish at 850 level and the surface and a setup where HP remains just to the East of the UK and sometimes affects us. The latter ranges from the UK being on the edge of the HP so not overly cold and prone to atlantic weather fronts at times, to HP being in the right place to advect cold our way, with P24 being a fun example of that in action.

As it stands I'd say the chances of a second cold shot are unlikely but just high enough to keep an eye on if you're feeling optimistic (at least until the members maintaining HP close by move on to a more atlantic orientated setup).

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

+1
Saint Snow
04 February 2025 14:40:53

Chances of retrogression to Greenland now slipping away as the block literally does just that and atlantic comes back in from GFS 06z 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

We won't get retrogression to Greenland until somewhere in early July

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Gandalf The White
04 February 2025 14:53:12

Well a week away to be precise. Some excellent agreement in ensembles for a decent easterly to start in the S.E this coming weekend if you look back at them last Sunday and the related posts on here. Not now though agreed.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Yes there was good agreement for an easterly but less support for that smallish area of deeper cold finding its way here, and even less support for what happens from the middle of next week.  It’s so dependent on the position and alignment of the high pressure cells and the behaviour of the jet stream.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



fairweather
04 February 2025 16:55:21
Was Paul Simon a model watcher?:- 😂

"Slip Slidin’ Away« See All Songs

Lyrics:

Slip slidin’ away

Slip slidin’ away

You know the nearer your destination

The more you’re slip slidin’ away"

S.Essex, 42m ASL
CField
04 February 2025 16:59:44
Fine tweaks could still result in Feb 78, 86 or 93 set ups.Surely with this high in place there will be a certain amount of continental thermal cooling with this blocked set up. Wouldn't be all suprised if all of  February is totally seasonal and frosty if somewhat short of snow.
Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Bow Echo
04 February 2025 17:37:41
I'm probably way out on this, but I wonder if the confict in the east has led to a lessening of data, from upper air soundings, aircraft reports, ground station measurements? Could we have the equivalent form the east of the "Christmas data shortage" often quoted as making for unreliable forecasting and modelling to to lack of reports around that time. I know that there has been some restriction of observational data being shared with Russia (https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/west-blocks-russias-weather-data/ ) and if that is the casemits a fair bet there has been tit for tat form Russia. And I suspect Ukraine reports have slowed to a trickle. As I say I might just be spouting rubbish, but it was just something I was pondering as we stagger towards weather that my have a more easterly component in the next week or so.
Steve D. FRMetS

Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants



+2
tallyho_83
04 February 2025 17:40:40

I'm probably way out on this, but I wonder if the confict in the east has led to a lessening of data, from upper air soundings, aircraft reports, ground station measurements? Could we have the equivalent form the east of the "Christmas data shortage" often quoted as making for unreliable forecasting and modelling to to lack of reports around that time. I know that there has been some restriction of observational data being shared with Russia (https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/west-blocks-russias-weather-data/ ) and if that is the casemits a fair bet there has been tit for tat form Russia. And I suspect Ukraine reports have slowed to a trickle. As I say I might just be spouting rubbish, but it was just something I was pondering as we stagger towards weather that my have a more easterly component in the next week or so.

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 

Nothing do do with it IMO. 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Bow Echo
04 February 2025 17:43:15

Nothing do do with it IMO. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Well thats me told. Back to hiding in the shadows for me.

Steve D. FRMetS

Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants



+1
doctormog
04 February 2025 17:59:17

Well thats me told. Back to hiding in the shadows for me.

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 

I thought it was a reasonable question to ask, and while I think it is unlikely, dismissing it without any evidence seems a bit strange.

More generally the theme of weather from an easterly quarter still seems likely in the coming couple of weeks. Details TBC.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
Matty H
04 February 2025 18:04:15

Well thats me told. Back to hiding in the shadows for me.

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 

🤣🤣🤣

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Gandalf The White
04 February 2025 18:28:39

Well thats me told. Back to hiding in the shadows for me.

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 

You should have asked him about Sudden Stratospheric Warming instead 😉

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+6
Brian Gaze
04 February 2025 18:52:37
Stay on topic please.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+1
tierradelfuego
04 February 2025 20:12:54
One interesting thing noted from tonight's GEFS (for Reading at least) compared to the 0z and 6z is that the warm up on the OP from the 8th is gone or should I say delayed until the 11th now. Maybe, just maybe.

Still zippydodah in the way of snow either way, but happy to see the cold remain as you never know what might happen.

Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Saint Snow
04 February 2025 20:24:02

Was Paul Simon a model watcher?:- 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Justin Hayward is

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Jiries
04 February 2025 20:54:44
Seem the temperatures from the east are creeping up slowly to just tad below average values from less cold temps 2-3C so wish we get strong NW colder flow that at least bring more snow chances via Gap and sunny weather with temps a bit lower than from the east.   East normally deliver subzero temps and NW just above freezing or if lucky at 0C like i got in 2021.  Nuneaton ensembles a bit boring nothing really cold enough but Cyprus ensembles more colder and well below average all the way than here, and that from the NE as well.
tallyho_83
04 February 2025 20:58:22
AO Going very negative:

UserPostedImage

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

UncleAlbert
04 February 2025 22:13:52
ECM AI  is interesting in the 8-10 day range.  The  trough is attempting to swing in from the south west but plenty of scope for disruption there.   Dew points  at 0C or below up until midday on day 10 M4 north with some heavy precipitation moving into the South West.  It all looks on a knife edge.  Add to the this the fact that there is a lot of pretty cold air sitting to the North East and just a subtle tweak to this scenario could give even the south something to remember.  Just one run one model....
Gandalf The White
04 February 2025 22:43:30

Was Paul Simon a model watcher?:- 😂

"Slip Slidin’ Away« See All Songs

Lyrics:

Slip slidin’ away

Slip slidin’ away

You know the nearer your destination

The more you’re slip slidin’ away"

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

A Hazy Shade of Winter would be a fitting theme tune.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



+2
BJBlake
04 February 2025 23:05:49

A Hazy Shade of Winter would be a fitting theme tune.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Love the Pub run banter this evening - really made me laugh out loud.  GFS Control is not without interest. Its still got a lot of potential and that Greenland HP retrogression seems still in the mix, as too undercutting by the jet. Its the nearly scenario right now, but ‘nearly’ could flip to ‘gotcha’ quite easily.

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
fairweather
05 February 2025 00:50:25

Yes there was good agreement for an easterly but less support for that smallish area of deeper cold finding its way here, and even less support for what happens from the middle of next week.  It’s so dependent on the position and alignment of the high pressure cells and the behaviour of the jet stream.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

This is true.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

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