While it was possible to anticipate a generally colder week or so from factors such as tropical forcing, the magnitude and duration of that was inevitably uncertain. Even now, it's not clear whether next week will be cold enough, soon enough, that this weekend registers as a 'blip' amidst a broader cold spell.

I've found this year particularly challenging to second-guess, which I believe is strongly connected to the presence of widespread record or near-record high sea surface temperatures plus an extremely rare combination of very warm North Atlantic yet strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The remote impacts of this on our weather have been fascinating to observe, but also rather disappointing to me personally, in that there's been a huge propensity for cloudy weather, and often a lot of rain. The in places record-dry first half to November was a welcome change of theme, even if it was horrendously cloudy until the final 4 days.

Metcheck             8.50c        Anomaly                1.58c

Netweather          9.16c       Anomaly                  2.27c

Peasedown St John   8.78c    Anomaly              1.68c.  

8.5 to the 18th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Netweather           8.14c         Anomaly       1.22c

Netweather           8.8c           Anomaly       1.41c

Peasedown St John    8.7c      Anomaly       1.68c.     

8.2 to the 19th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck             7.77c       Anomaly               0.85c

Netweather          8.4c         Anomaly              1.51c

Peasedown St John   7.83c   Anomaly             0.7c.

7.8 to the 20th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck              7.46c            Anomaly              0.54c

Netweather           8.02c            Anomaly              1.12c

Peasedown St John  7.65c         Anomaly              0.55c.

7.5 to the 21st

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck           7.25c         Anomaly              0.53c

Netweather        7.8c           Anomaly              0.91c

Peasedown St John   7.65c   Anomaly             -0.53c.

7.2 to the 22nd

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF145          7.4c           Nicks'1BATH75    8.1c

Metcheck              7.44c           Anomaly           9.57c

Netweather          7.87c           Anomaly            0.48c

Peasedown St John  8.062c     Anomaly           0.44c.  l

Posts are on October thread by mistake. 

Metcheck           7.65c       Anomaly              0.73c

Netweather        8.12c      Anomaly               1.23c

Peasedown St John     8.08c           Anomaly    1.08c. 

7.4 to the 24th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck         7.61c        Anomaly        0.88c

Netweather      8.14c       Anomaly         1.25c

Peasedown St John 7.88c  Anomaly        0.78c.        

7.5 to the 25th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck        7.52c         Anomaly         9.89c

Netweather     8.05c        Anomaly         1.16c

Peasedown St John   7.96c  Anomaly      0.86c.

7.4 to the 26th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

November 2010 mean was 4.3C that year had very cold final week but was otherwise near average.

2012 was 5.7C it will about match that.

Metcheck        7.34c           Anomaly          0.42c

Netweather     7.91c          Anomaly          1.02c

Peasedown St John   7.43c  Anomaly         0.33c.

7.3 to the 27th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

7.4°C

1961-1990: 1.00°C

1971-2000: 0.40°C

1981-2010: 0.10°C

1991-2020: 0.00°C

1659-2020: 1.30°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx