Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 March 2024 14:51:10
I'd like to suggest a notion of '2nd winter' ever since the exceptionally cold March 2013 it feels like '2nd winter' as a 'subseason' where unusually cold weather occurs during march or April seems to be becoming more likely. Spit balling I think it has to do with:

- Climate change warm ups seems to disproportionally affect winter, with more modest warming during spring
- Zonal flow over winter seems to be more of a thing these days, again possibly due to climate change causing differential warming at different latitudes. This breaks down during March most of the time with the final statospheric warming event
- With cold seas, the 'easier to get' northerly seems to just be more likely to have colder uppers late in the winter or early in the spring.

Anyway some examples. It really does feel ubiquitous. 2nd winters of recent years. You could define 2nd winter as any period that occurs during spring, longer than about a week that has been colder than most of the preceding winter.

2023: First two weeks of March
2022: Last week of March, First week of April
2021: First two weeks of April
2020: Last week of march (not that cold, but still comparable to the entire winter except late December)
2019: First two weeks of April
2018: 2nd BFTE
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bolty
24 March 2024 15:01:34
I wouldn't say so. Cold spells in spring are nothing unusual; they never have been and aren't so much now.

I think what makes them stand out more is the fact that many of the preceding winters are seeing less in terms of cold and snow, which makes cold in spring more noticeable than it otherwise would have been. Since March 2013, I'd say the only real notably cold spells/months in spring have been March 2018 and April 2021. Perhaps you could also throw May 2015 and May 2021 in there too.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Chunky Pea
24 March 2024 15:10:30
Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'd like to suggest a notion of '2nd winter' ever since the exceptionally cold March 2013 it feels like '2nd winter' as a 'subseason' where unusually cold weather occurs during march or April seems to be becoming more likely. Spit balling I think it has to do with:

- Climate change warm ups seems to disproportionally affect winter, with more modest warming during spring
- Zonal flow over winter seems to be more of a thing these days, again possibly due to climate change causing differential warming at different latitudes. This breaks down during March most of the time with the final statospheric warming event
- With cold seas, the 'easier to get' northerly seems to just be more likely to have colder uppers late in the winter or early in the spring.

Anyway some examples. It really does feel ubiquitous. 2nd winters of recent years. You could define 2nd winter as any period that occurs during spring, longer than about a week that has been colder than most of the preceding winter.

2023: First two weeks of March
2022: Last week of March, First week of April
2021: First two weeks of April
2020: Last week of march (not that cold, but still comparable to the entire winter except late December)
2019: First two weeks of April
2018: 2nd BFTE
 



I downloaded  ERA 5 reanalysis grib data a couple of years back  and plugging in the data through 'R' revealed that winds from a northerly source occur more frequently from late March through to the end of April than at any other time of year on average. Perhaps they are becoming more prevalent the last few years but, snow in April seems a lot less frequent than it used to be as well.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 March 2024 15:14:38
Originally Posted by: Bolty 

I wouldn't say so. Cold spells in spring are nothing unusual; they never have been and aren't so much now.

I think what makes them stand out more is the fact that many of the preceding winters are seeing less in terms of cold and snow, which makes cold in spring more noticeable than it otherwise would have been. Since March 2013, I'd say the only real notably cold spells/months in spring have been March 2018 and April 2021. Perhaps you could also throw May 2015 and May 2021 in there too.



That's still going to make it 'feel' like winter though right? Its always going to be relative; so colder past winters would have made them seem more benign.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 March 2024 15:16:32
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I downloaded  ERA 5 reanalysis grib data a couple of years back  and plugging in the data through 'R' revealed that winds from a northerly source occur more frequently from late March through to the end of April than at any other time of year on average. Perhaps they are becoming more prevalent the last few years but, snow in April seems a lot less frequent than it used to be as well.



When I compare my adulthood to my childhood what I starkly notice is that winter snow seems to have become alot less common and lying snow has become almost extinct, whereas springtime snow has become routine and expected. Sure, it doesn't lie either but its every bit as likely as snow in January or February if not more so. Again not sure if its real or a perception.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2024 16:06:21
I don't think cold spells in Spring are new. This is our house in Kent at Easter 1983, 1st week of April that year. We were in Perugia where it also snowed that Easter, and settled briefly - the photo was taken by friends on holiday from Germany, borrowing our house. Right click to enlarge in new tab.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


I can also remember a couple of occasions in separate years in the 1950s being snowed on while out cycling S of London.

For this Millennium, Bonacina records March or April snowfall more often than not ('2000' means '2000-1'and so on). I've picked out the more unusual instances. 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005 (4-foot drifts, Ayr on 12th), 2007, 2009 (40cm Aviemore, end March), 2010 (60cm Aviemore on 13th), 2011, 2012 (60cm, Pennines, end March), 2015 (17cm N Yorks), 2016, 2017 (20cm, S England and Wales on 18th), 2020 (38cm Aboyne on 10th)
https://durhamukweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html 

Hope that doesn't squash the theory entirely, but I'm inclined to agree with Bolty, that the contrast with preceding winters which seem to have become milder over the last decade or so emphasises March cold periods e.g. no significant winter snow in Chichester since 2010
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tierradelfuego
24 March 2024 16:17:56
I'd concur with pretty much all that's been said in terms of it not being a new thing, and in reality we get spring-like weather spells in summer, summer weather in autumn, and often autumn the whole way through winter. As per Bolty's first reply, I think some of it at least is because it can be maybe the coldest spell of the "winter", last year (22/23) we had no snow until 5 or 6" in March.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL
Retron
24 March 2024 16:42:07
Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'd like to suggest a notion of '2nd winter' ever since the exceptionally cold March 2013 it feels like '2nd winter' as a 'subseason'
 


To have a second winter, you need to have had a first one!

It'd just be nice to get a below average (61-90) month TBH...
Leysdown, north Kent
Essan
24 March 2024 20:01:31
April 1981 anyone?  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_1981_United_Kingdom_snowfall 

Not had anything like it since.   This year we've had temps almost down to average for the time of year though, which I suppose is quite cold.... 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Essan
24 March 2024 20:04:13
I think it's much more a case of winters becoming much milder and even snow free, making normal weather in early spring seem colder or more wintry in comparison. 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Saint Snow
24 March 2024 21:25:21
Originally Posted by: Bolty 

I wouldn't say so. Cold spells in spring are nothing unusual; they never have been and aren't so much now.

I think what makes them stand out more is the fact that many of the preceding winters are seeing less in terms of cold and snow, which makes cold in spring more noticeable than it otherwise would have been. Since March 2013, I'd say the only real notably cold spells/months in spring have been March 2018 and April 2021. Perhaps you could also throw May 2015 and May 2021 in there too.



👍

I agree. Mrs S has her birthday late March and, since I met her over 30 years ago, has spoken to how often it's snowed around her birthday (it's the sort of thing you notice)

Your point about preceding winters now being so much worse (as in, less cold & snowy) is well made.

As an aside, the 2012/13 winter seemed at the time to be nothing particularly remarkable - indeed, as each snowfall was generally gone within a few days, in some respects it felt a little disappointing. I put that down to it coming after two great winters in 2009/10 & 2010/11, both of which had deeper snow that lasted longer. If I'd have known then that 11 winters later and counting, we'd not get a fall of at least 10cm, I may have thought differently.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
BJBlake
25 March 2024 00:01:51
I seem to remember the Met Office reporting on the affects of Climate Change on the UK weather patterns, and this was a long time ago, possibly 20 years ago now or more, (maybe around 1991), and the incidence of late spring cold spells was one of these anticipated affects. I have certainly noticed what you have noticed Quantum, and whilst there have always been cold snaps late into spring, as portrayed by the ladybird book, ‘What to Look for in Winter,’ so beautifully illustrated by the late artist G.Tunicliffe, the prevalence of cold incursions late on and often into April has maintained some of its frequency, even when the incidence of winter cold and especially snowy spells has dramatically declined. Until 1996, the Highways Authority in Norfolk and Suffolk used to spend £150k per year erecting snow fencing along the A140, to drift snow from the regular easterly winds before it hit the roadside hedges and drifted on the road itself. There was a realisation that the East Anglian easterly and snow events were no longer appearing and the fencing spend was wasted. Its odd how people have such short memories, because until the last couple of years, even on TWO, people were denying climate change was occurring, and still today the likes of Reece-Mogg, Julia Hartley-Brewer and sooooo many more are still denying it, even in the face of the science, the facts, and the manifest consequences. Of course, if you have off-shoe hedge funds investing in oil and gas exploration, you might be tempted to throw smoke and mirrors at the science, like the well documented Exon-Mobil campaign of disinformation for the last 30 years, to deflect reluctant politicians, when we might have been able to prevent climate change.

In conclusion, you are correct, but the trend for snow lovers is not pretty, whatever the time of year.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
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