The 12Z runs are up and running....

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Worth noting the deep Atlantic low at +120 on the 12z UKMO is about 400 miles NW of where it was on the +144 yesterday .

More than the usual level of uncertainty…but looking quite stormy next week…and wintry for some 

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Still unresolved with the UKMO and almost the ICON sliding it.
 

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ICON-G not without interest for cold weather fans. Also, odds on (obviously not guaranteed) that ECM will show a similar solution later this evening.

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ICON looks decent potential for cold, GFS looks confused, UKM could go cold post 144, GEM looks to favour Euro high

I’ve looked through the GFS ensembles up to 150hr, and I’ve got to say they are not without interest, so many close to something special. Rubbish Op though mind

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It goes out to 168 so we can easily see what it shows.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 
 

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Only had to go to P2 to find a slider.

Still not resolved.

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An Atlantic-dominated week but later a Scandi HP appears as an early Christmas present.

WX - the cold weather has stopped retreating and the temp situation is more or less static for the next two weeks; west of a N-S line dividing Germany temps are near average but to the east (which includes Scandinavia) it's much colder. Ultra-cold air is stuck somewhere near the Urals. Rain (probably) for Atlantic coasts from Britain S to Spain in both the next two weeks, continental Europe has some lighter pptn (snow?) and the patch over the Adriatic/Aegean in week 1 fades later.

GFS Op - Britain for the next 10 days is dominated by LP from the Atlantic but these make little eastward progress as a block begins to build over S Russia (990mb Severn estuary Mon 4th, 960mb Malin Thu 7th, 980mb Shetland Mon 11th, all including Britain as a whole in their circulation). The pattern begins to change Wed 13th as HP builds over the Alps (1025mb) linking with the Russian HP, first keeping Atlantic troughs further out to the west and then moving N to form an intense Scandi HP 1050mb from Shetland to S Norway Mon 18th with E-lies for Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS at first, though the final LP in the sequence does make it across to the Baltic Wed 13th, and though there is some suggestion of HP over the Alps then, it's not as evident as in GFS.

GEM like ECM

FAX keeps LPs at arm's length on the Atlantic, the LPs just about managing to push fronts across Britain on a SE-ly wind.

GEFS - temps rising irregularly to norm by Thu 7th and fairly good agreement on staying there to Sun 10th (a few colder members) and then increasing variation sets in either side of mean which stays near norm. (Op goes from being almost the mildest to almost the coldest 15-18th Dec some 10C either side of mean) Rain frequent in most places at most times, perhaps a little drier in the east later on.

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GEFS looks to be closing the door on a quick return to cold weather. 

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I think if cold were to return it would be from the NE i.e. Scandinavia. 

I must say that the ensembls have handled this setup very well in the past week or so with the favoured return to more average conditions around the 6th of December. There is a little more uncertainty here than further south but overall the trend is generally the same.

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Couple of the models showing possibility of substantial west mId Atlantic WAA cutting off the feed of low pressure. Even in recent favourable circumstances this has been shown to be harder to achieve thesedays either with full return to zonalty or irksome spoiler lows..Possibly pre Xmas northerly?

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Agreed, a shame recently. Hopefully by end of the week, we may have something new to show up. Last year we saw snow on the 11th December and was excited how early it happened. I was hopeful for the rest of winter and it in the end that proved to be the only snow that winter. I don’t want a repeat of that this year.

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Agreed as well as long I don;'t like to see nasty cold rain and fogs that wasting our cold spell days.  I would like next cold spell to see proper subzero maxes as low as -2C or below, proper snowfall events and aipine clear skies to allow sub -10 to -15C temps at nights.  This cold soll is poor due to fog and again the fog attacked this morning after the over night snow instead of clear skies. so no nice sightseeing the snowy landscape.  Despite not showing anything but hope not long to wait and to hit again later this month.

You set yourself up for disappointment with such high expectations George. The old George of 20 years ago would have been delighted with last nights efforts. 

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I’ve seen a lot of talk (not necessarily on here) about how dense cold air is ‘hard to shift’. There is little evidence for this as far as I can see(maybe in the 70s/80s when computers were the size of mobile phones) and the next few days are an example of how this ascertain has a hint of hopecasting. I’ve seen many a dense large cold high pushed aside with ease by the Atlantic and in recent years this has been modelled fairly well (IMO).
Onward.

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Less cold and unsettled if not very unsettled is the name of the game for the next 10 days if not longer................☔🌬

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You mean the other way round! Still have my old spectrum and C64. Such a joy when life was so much simpler! As for the models, the breakdown has been superbly predicted despite ICON offering some cleavage to the hopecasters. 
As CFIeld says, hopefully something seasonal will show up, so better prospects that last year
 

 

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A second GFS op in a row that has the mid atlantic blocking. So a good sign something is being picked up

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And it develops at around the same time as the 0z. Let’s see what happens - but it will be nice to have something almost immediate to focus on

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