Short term snow potential thread

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 10:34:38

Feels like this is a little overdue.

So WRF and UKV deviate quite alot on the snow potential tommorow. UKV has limited snow potential with showers mostly limited to the coasts and little snow on the frontal system. WRF however has some decent snow in parts of Devon and brings in more substantial showers for most parts of N England (well inland in many cases). Even less than 24 hours out there are big differences here.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

29 November 2023 10:38:40

#2

We need a Quantum Map!!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

DEW
Advanced Member

29 November 2023 10:46:35

#3

MetO has persistent pptn over S Devon for Wed into late Thu, even some creeping along the Channel to the Isle of Wight - but not Chichester, of course, which has to wait until early Sunday for the chance of a heavy shower before frontal rain moves across from the west
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map

Arpege has a similar pattern for Wed/Thu, with snow for Devon away from the coasts; higher levels on Dartmoor should get a decent covering.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 10:50:35

#4

We need a Quantum Map!!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Might do one this evening after the 12Zs

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 17:10:18

#5

Based on the radar it seems the WRF scenario for the showers is winning out over the UKV (and the latest UKV has moved towards the WRF scenario). This means probably an upgrade for most of northern England (even the west) in terms of snow potential from tonight through Friday.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 21:30:30

#6

Rough idea of the risk of snow tommorow for low lying parts.

Full image: https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/mGvE7yId4ysM.png?o=1

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

+3

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

29 November 2023 21:52:31

#7

Rough idea of the risk of snow tommorow for low lying parts.

Full image: https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/mGvE7yId4ysM.png?o=1

Originally Posted by: Quantum

👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 23:28:59

#8

Definitely feel like we are seeing slight upgrades over time in shower potential.

Already seen snow and wasn't expecting anything until Thursday. Now some models are even showing snow showers on Saturday for many parts (though different parts to Thur/Friday)

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Tim A
Advanced Member

29 November 2023 23:45:11

#9

If 18z GFS is correct there could be some traces of snow on the ground from now until the end of the run.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

My PWS

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 November 2023 23:53:45

#10

If 18z GFS is correct there could be some traces of snow on the ground from now until the end of the run.

Originally Posted by: Tim A

The runs are definitely trending towards keeping the block in place and having stuff undercutting it. Its not impossible. Incidentally keep a look out for snow tommorow and Friday. I think you could potentially do a bit better than expected.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Tim A
Advanced Member

30 November 2023 00:04:18

#11

The runs are definitely trending towards keeping the block in place and having stuff undercutting it. Its not impossible. Incidentally keep a look out for snow tommorow and Friday. I think you could potentially do a bit better than expected.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Hope so!
That main chunk has just hit us now , lovely big flakes and everywhere nicely covered.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

My PWS

+1

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

30 November 2023 09:21:14

#12

WRF clearly did a good job with that feature last night; the showers are a bit more forced by orography/friction even in the north than the UKV predicts with the UKV electing to keep showers as almost perfectly circular blobs.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

01 December 2023 11:06:58

#13

Snow moving in from the west Saturday night into Sunday:

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

DEW
Advanced Member

01 December 2023 11:12:35

#14

Snow moving in from the west Saturday night into Sunday:

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Notice the gap between the Midlands and the Channel which misses out. Does this gap include Chichester? Yes.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

01 December 2023 11:25:39

#15

There's no consistency between the models for this weekend. But Wales looks to be in with a decent shout. Prob west Midlands aswell.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

01 December 2023 12:56:52

#16

There's no consistency between the models for this weekend. But Wales looks to be in with a decent shout. Prob west Midlands aswell.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

WRF6Z has quite alot of snow for Yorkshire on Sunday. As you say, who knows what will actually happen!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

+1

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

01 December 2023 13:02:17

#17

ARPEGE ensembles are interesting. Probability of more than 1cm of snow fallen by midday monday (from 6Z today onwards)

Large parts of northern England, Scotland have more than 50% chance of seeing more than 1cm falling snow by then. If you flick through the ensembles there is a mish mash of nothingburgers and snowmagedon scenarios.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Tim A
Advanced Member

01 December 2023 14:18:15

#18

WRF6Z has quite alot of snow for Yorkshire on Sunday. As you say, who knows what will actually happen!

Originally Posted by: Quantum

That is a lovely run with quite significant totals. It's one of those where it may even come down to the day with lots of possibilities. With the system possibly pivoting etc it's all very complex. We might not even know until the event itself. Like the Post-Arwen Sunday snowfalls of Nov 21 or the big snow event of 8th Jan 2021, the odd model was indicating something but it was far from the mainstream view.

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

My PWS

Jiries
Advanced Member

01 December 2023 14:26:11

#19

Notice the gap between the Midlands and the Channel which misses out. Does this gap include Chichester? Yes.

Originally Posted by: DEW

Wouldn't bother about those fictional snow charts even showing Midlands get it no trust anyway until i see it falling outside the window. Was supposed to be snowy day yesterday but failed anyway.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

01 December 2023 19:10:40

#20

WRF upgrading the snow risk again for parts of Yorkshire. Small adjustments could put us in amber warning territory.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

QUICK LINKS

theweatheroutlook

Ad blocking?

Ad free access and NEW extra features