Personally, I find all of this talk about the country being hit by Storm Agnes on Wednesday a bit premature, especially since there are certain sections of the media which are going on about it as though that was completely nailed in, and 100% guaranteed to actually happen.
As we all know full well, nothing is ever completely "nailed in" when it comes our weather. For that, we usually go by what the model output is telling us about what the weather might be like at a certain point of time in the future, but that is never anything more than a mere prediction for that.
The technology behind all of that has got a lot better over the years and continues to get better over time but even with that, we are still yet not at the stage where we can actually guarantee that we will definitely get a certain type of weather at a certain time.
It is true that can get occasions when it is odds on that it will rain in a couple of hours' time (just as an example) and on the vast majority of those occasions, it usually will end up raining. However, even those forecasts are capable of going badly wrong at the very last minute (sometimes even with the result that it hasn't actually rained at all, has had been forecast or expected) and that is why even these are just "forecasts" at the end of the day, and not actual statements about what will actually happen.
As regards to this week's events, they could well end up happening as forecast but the effects of that could could also equally be even worse then expected, or being not as bad as expected. If this upcoming weather event doesn't end up being as bad as expected, there is a good chance that such a forecast will be downgraded closer to the time as result.
That would make it less likely that any amber or higher level official warnings would actually be issued by the Met Office which in turn, would therefore reduce the risks of any storm actually being officially named as a result.
Finally, any assumption about Storm Agnes being made is just an assumption that this storm is named by either the British (i.e. the Met Office), the Irish (i.e. Met Eireann) or the Dutch because such a storm can only be officially named as Storm Agnes if it was one of three organisations which actually named it.
If the worst affected areas end up being one of those three countries, that will usually end up being the case. However, even that prognosis can easily change as the general model output changes. Because of that, it might not necessarily be the British, Irish or Dutch which actually names and if it is a different country outside of those three, such a Storm will not then be named as Storm Agnes.
If that ends up being the case, its actual name will depend on which country actually named it, and that is something which tends to happen quite a lot. When you add all of that together, it would be much better if the general media just waited for a bit longer to see what actually happens, rather than just more or less blindly assuming that we are actually going to get Storm Agnes on Wednesday.
Edited by user
25 September 2023 10:47:32
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.