Can we all stop about it is going to be mild, the ENS point to average, and it is called average for a reason. It isn't mild and it isn't cold, it is average.

Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

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GEFS give a typical pattern of lows moving through mild followed by chilly nothing long lasting or too extreme. As in the setup the further north the better chance of wintry precipitation. At the moment looks like a couple of weeks of this pattern. Could be the odd surprise!

Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

Indeed, but even the daytime temperatures look most likely to be above the average, at least in the south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty= 
 

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The GFS det run shows snow cover for much of the country by the latter stages. As mentioned above I imagine the reality would be cold rain anywhere south of the Midlands and/or at low altitudes - GFS seems not to factor in the UK surface mildness for whatever reason.

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Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

Thank god the mild weather had been a massive blessing to keep the heating costs down as now so far up to 5th Jan my billing is £8 less than last month horror bone dry cold spell, from £26 to £18. If there no snow or real cold in the models then better to stay mild.  My apps show 8 to 12C temps which is above average for here in Jan at 7C.  Daylight also now slowly drawing out. Temps will rise to 11C tonight so another great night for shorter quicker heating up indoors when very mild and cloudy over night.

When was the last cold January? December and March seem favourites in recent decades. Never happens during the coldest part of winter.

2013 the last time anything significant for most parts

Yes. It snowed in Worcestershire January 2021 and stayed for several days. Really enjoyed my walks around the lanes (no cars).

January 24th 2021 was a decent snow event here. This pic was taken in my garden.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20210124121023_20210124&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Berkhamsted&uc=Hers&ucr=&ud=Level%20snow%20depth%20approx%207cm%20at%20midday&lat=51.8&lon=-0.5 
 

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January 24th 2021 was a decent snow event here. This pic was taken in my garden.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20210124121023_20210124&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Berkhamsted&uc=Hers&ucr=&ud=Level%20snow%20depth%20approx%207cm%20at%20midday&lat=51.8&lon=-0.5 
 

That day was the best in here too at 8cm and 0C all day and heating cost was only £4 for 24 hours heating at 20C.  Today I think it would be £20-£25 for heating at 24 hours.  2021 was a snowy year here from Jan to April then Nov and early Dec so that 6 months, in 2022 nothing.

It the matter when we will get very deep plunge on the model charts? last time was early April 2021 when very strong northerly blast came here and had lot of snow showers and above freezing temps.  Could had that last month when Greenland was very cold at -32 850s temps at SE area but models refused to let it go south by inserting HP over to the south and the never exist battle ground failed for Xmas period.

The debate about what is average is interesting :)
Given hopes for a mid to late winter surge of, err, 'winter' weather seem to hinge on an SSW it's worth looking at the latest thinking on whether one will occur or not. It should always be noted that even if we get a technical SSW (reversal of mean zonal wind component at 10hPa; 60N), it doesn't always mean a QTR (Quick Troposheric Reponse) that seems to be one of the elements needed in promoting a surface response in terms of blocking, and even if it does the said blocking needs to be favourably positioned to get cold arctic air into the UK.
To be fair there are so many things that need to click it's almost not worth bothering with it but we'll see.
The latest CFS zonal wind ensemble does suggest a steady reduction in the westerly zonal component in the next three weeks, with some members falling to -10 or so. It's worth monitoring as it could change quickly and a technical SSW might be in the outlook by week 4 January. Any response will not manifest itself at the surface until a week or so after the SWW occurs so any comments in the next few days like 'is the later stage of GFS the start of a SSW repsonse' are very premature IMO.
Of course there are other mechanisms that could promote HLB again so we shouldn;t be rstricted to this phenomena, but as it stands the next few weeks at least look mobile, unsetlled and dare I say 'average'.

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The GFS det run shows snow cover for much of the country by the latter stages. As mentioned above I imagine the reality would be cold rain anywhere south of the Midlands and/or at low altitudes - GFS seems not to factor in the UK surface mildness for whatever reason.

Been a shift in models in terms of the mean zonal wind at 10hpa:

Some ENS members going for a reversal now:

Updated Thursday 5th January 23

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2000/cd/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-kkx7k-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Fno2pm.png 



Compared to Monday 2nd January 2023

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2040/fc/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-cgg94-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-zk9WSG.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

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12z ECM @ 240z looks good over the top of the N. pole if this does verify then there could be some interest later in the month:

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ECM looks a little more seasonal esp for more northern parts, but as January has been written off I will ignore it

I'm pleased to see the continued signal for a polar maritime influence by mid-month. It has been a repeated theme across the models when looking at FI charts and it seems like next weekend might finally introduce something colder from the northwest.



While the Met Office model doesn't go as far, it does seem poised for the same on its 168h chart 😊


 

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Lot less mild in a colder W/NW flow on GFS op run no doubt some heavy wintry showers for prone spots 

Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 

Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 

one can only hope something gives to break up this endless dross. Following the (epic for here, bone dry for most) cold spell, it’s been wall to wall Atlantic garbage. Indeed Moomin’s much mocked “3-4 weeks of raging zonality” might prove to be a understatement. 

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Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run

Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run

Yes both control and Operation end of a cold note or what appears to be heading in a colder and more blocked pattern and that Siberian high pressure is infiltrating NW into the Arctic regions . N Scandinavia as well as the fact we could well see an SSW at some point gifen the forecast for the zonal winds are to weaken considerably after mid-month. But will they reverse? time will tell?
At the very end of the run though shows the PV really being squeezed and displaced into N. America/Canada and with that major warming at 10hpa heading in the direction of the N. Pole if we were to go on for another few days....!? 



Just anything but wind and rain every bloody day!

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Brian will you start a new Model Output thread at some point? - just wondering?

end of the 18z Op Run: 
Notice the Siberian High moving north westwards?








 

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