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Taylor1740
06 January 2023 12:28:36

Can we all stop about it is going to be mild, the ENS point to average, and it is called average for a reason. It isn't mild and it isn't cold, it is average.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
06 January 2023 12:33:43
GEFS give a typical pattern of lows moving through mild followed by chilly nothing long lasting or too extreme. As in the setup the further north the better chance of wintry precipitation. At the moment looks like a couple of weeks of this pattern. Could be the odd surprise!
Brian Gaze
06 January 2023 12:36:29

Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Indeed, but even the daytime temperatures look most likely to be above the average, at least in the south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty= 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
06 January 2023 12:36:31
The GFS det run shows snow cover for much of the country by the latter stages. As mentioned above I imagine the reality would be cold rain anywhere south of the Midlands and/or at low altitudes - GFS seems not to factor in the UK surface mildness for whatever reason.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
06 January 2023 12:53:13

Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Thank god the mild weather had been a massive blessing to keep the heating costs down as now so far up to 5th Jan my billing is £8 less than last month horror bone dry cold spell, from £26 to £18. If there no snow or real cold in the models then better to stay mild.  My apps show 8 to 12C temps which is above average for here in Jan at 7C.  Daylight also now slowly drawing out. Temps will rise to 11C tonight so another great night for shorter quicker heating up indoors when very mild and cloudy over night.
sunny coast
06 January 2023 12:54:54

When was the last cold January? December and March seem favourites in recent decades. Never happens during the coldest part of winter.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



2013 the last time anything significant for most parts
Sharp Green Fox
06 January 2023 13:49:51
Yes. It snowed in Worcestershire January 2021 and stayed for several days. Really enjoyed my walks around the lanes (no cars).
Brian Gaze
06 January 2023 14:07:33
January 24th 2021 was a decent snow event here. This pic was taken in my garden.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20210124121023_20210124&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Berkhamsted&uc=Hers&ucr=&ud=Level%20snow%20depth%20approx%207cm%20at%20midday&lat=51.8&lon=-0.5 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
06 January 2023 14:33:48


That day was the best in here too at 8cm and 0C all day and heating cost was only £4 for 24 hours heating at 20C.  Today I think it would be £20-£25 for heating at 24 hours.  2021 was a snowy year here from Jan to April then Nov and early Dec so that 6 months, in 2022 nothing.

It the matter when we will get very deep plunge on the model charts? last time was early April 2021 when very strong northerly blast came here and had lot of snow showers and above freezing temps.  Could had that last month when Greenland was very cold at -32 850s temps at SE area but models refused to let it go south by inserting HP over to the south and the never exist battle ground failed for Xmas period.
nsrobins
06 January 2023 15:35:44
The debate about what is average is interesting :)
Given hopes for a mid to late winter surge of, err, 'winter' weather seem to hinge on an SSW it's worth looking at the latest thinking on whether one will occur or not. It should always be noted that even if we get a technical SSW (reversal of mean zonal wind component at 10hPa; 60N), it doesn't always mean a QTR (Quick Troposheric Reponse) that seems to be one of the elements needed in promoting a surface response in terms of blocking, and even if it does the said blocking needs to be favourably positioned to get cold arctic air into the UK.
To be fair there are so many things that need to click it's almost not worth bothering with it but we'll see.
The latest CFS zonal wind ensemble does suggest a steady reduction in the westerly zonal component in the next three weeks, with some members falling to -10 or so. It's worth monitoring as it could change quickly and a technical SSW might be in the outlook by week 4 January. Any response will not manifest itself at the surface until a week or so after the SWW occurs so any comments in the next few days like 'is the later stage of GFS the start of a SSW repsonse' are very premature IMO.
Of course there are other mechanisms that could promote HLB again so we shouldn;t be rstricted to this phenomena, but as it stands the next few weeks at least look mobile, unsetlled and dare I say 'average'.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:02:15

The GFS det run shows snow cover for much of the country by the latter stages. As mentioned above I imagine the reality would be cold rain anywhere south of the Midlands and/or at low altitudes - GFS seems not to factor in the UK surface mildness for whatever reason.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Been a shift in models in terms of the mean zonal wind at 10hpa:

Some ENS members going for a reversal now:

Updated Thursday 5th January 23

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2000/cd/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-kkx7k-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Fno2pm.png 

UserPostedImage

Compared to Monday 2nd January 2023

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2040/fc/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-cgg94-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-zk9WSG.png 

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:20:54
12z ECM @ 240z looks good over the top of the N. pole if this does verify then there could be some interest later in the month:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
06 January 2023 19:42:46
ECM looks a little more seasonal esp for more northern parts, but as January has been written off I will ignore it
Jacee
06 January 2023 19:44:10
I'm pleased to see the continued signal for a polar maritime influence by mid-month. It has been a repeated theme across the models when looking at FI charts and it seems like next weekend might finally introduce something colder from the northwest.

UserPostedImage

While the Met Office model doesn't go as far, it does seem poised for the same on its 168h chart 😊

UserPostedImage
 
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
ballamar
06 January 2023 22:33:17
Lot less mild in a colder W/NW flow on GFS op run no doubt some heavy wintry showers for prone spots 
ballamar
06 January 2023 22:49:47
Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 
Downpour
06 January 2023 23:15:46

Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



one can only hope something gives to break up this endless dross. Following the (epic for here, bone dry for most) cold spell, it’s been wall to wall Atlantic garbage. Indeed Moomin’s much mocked “3-4 weeks of raging zonality” might prove to be a understatement. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
06 January 2023 23:17:29
Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 23:49:56

Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




Yes both control and Operation end of a cold note or what appears to be heading in a colder and more blocked pattern and that Siberian high pressure is infiltrating NW into the Arctic regions . N Scandinavia as well as the fact we could well see an SSW at some point gifen the forecast for the zonal winds are to weaken considerably after mid-month. But will they reverse? time will tell?
At the very end of the run though shows the PV really being squeezed and displaced into N. America/Canada and with that major warming at 10hpa heading in the direction of the N. Pole if we were to go on for another few days....!? 

UserPostedImage

Just anything but wind and rain every bloody day!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 January 2023 23:55:26
Brian will you start a new Model Output thread at some point? - just wondering?

end of the 18z Op Run: 
Notice the Siberian High moving north westwards?

UserPostedImage






 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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