wx summary - continuing cool across W Europe and definitely below average across France (doesn't quite match suggestions that Sam may bring up warmth from the S or the latest GFS) - rain in the west and Alps at first (early snowfall?) drying up and moving N later

GFS - Sam and then a successor replacing current Lp off N/NW Scotland so by Sun 10th warm air & HP centred England 1030 mb. That Hp retrogresses to NI then SW wards allowing N/NE-lies to develop down the N Sea and more generally later

GEFS - long v. dry spell after the next 2 days with temps close to norm, a little above at first (a lot above in Scotland), maybe a little below to end. 

ECM - slower to bring the HP across the UK but eventually spreads it further E blocking any possible N-ly

Jet - current NWly dlow ends Wed 6th and jet loops N around the UK until normal service resumed Tu 19th - just a brief fringing blast of the loop down the N Sea around Tue 12th

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Interesting that the GFS 00z operational is so out of line this morning...surely a glitch?

It looks like it is a day behind the data.

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Interesting that the GFS 00z operational is so out of line this morning...surely a glitch?

It looks like it is a day behind the data.

 

 

Probability forecasts show dry weather returning. Upper air temps rise and then dip later - likely due to the positioning of the high pressure. PS: GFS op run - thick green line - is stretched because it hadn't completed when the GEFS plots were generated https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/dGOyiRVUH2

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) October 4, 2021

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GFS 00z has now completed. The delays were upstream.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

 

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Wow looking as though October could be very anticyclonic. The lack of wind won't be good news for the energy companies given it seems like this year has already been much less windy than usual.

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Wow looking as though October could be very anticyclonic. The lack of wind won't be good news for the energy companies given it seems like this year has already been much less windy than usual.

Ups and downs I guess. Assuming it doesn't turn cold in the AH conditions demand for heat may be offset against falls in renewable supply.

FWW I don't buy into the warm October/cold winter theory. It may well be that patterns are shifting somewhat anyway. Last winter was notably quiet hence the bouts of cold weather at times. Maybe this will be another one of those but who knows?

 

Ups and downs I guess. Assuming it doesn't turn cold in the AH conditions demand for heat may be offset against falls in renewable supply.

FWW I don't buy into the warm October/cold winter theory. It may well be that patterns are shifting somewhat anyway. Last winter was notably quiet hence the bouts of cold weather at times. Maybe this will be another one of those but who knows?

Yes looks as though it will be mild at least to start with.

Agreed I'm not a big fan of using pattern matching to predict seasons, there's a multitude of factors to consider and pattern matching wouldn't be at the top of my list.

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On pattern matching the weekly tracker has 2017, 1951 and 2013 as the top 3. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx?dt=week1

 

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I've just been browsing through the latest 5 day and 10 day precipitation maps which Brian often shows in his videos over on YouTube and according to those charts, Edinburgh isn't expected to get more than 15 mm of rain during the next 10 days.

Whilst the rest of the UK has had a very wet start to this month, it has been a completely different story here in Edinburgh. I won't quote this month's totals here as that is what the monthly precipitation threads are for, but those of you who have seen my reports on this month's precipitation thread will noticed that in complete contrast to what is happening elsewhere, we have actually had a fairly dry start to this month here in Edinburgh, though not as dry as how September started off.

This is happening because the major low pressure systems which are crossing the UK and giving those large rainfall totals elsewhere are missing this part of the world virtually altogether and even the last system which moved up the east coast towards NE Scotland, managed to miss us to our east here in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, the upcoming weather system which is expected to move in towards the middle part of the week is being forecast to miss us to our south according to the latest model output, and that has recently been a recurring feature of those secondary lows, even when the parent low has been to our north.

However, we have some ongoing downpours at the moment which are turning out to be much heavier than what had been forecast for here. In addition to that, the latest Met Office forecasts suggests that although this next upcoming system is still expected to miss us altogether, we might end up getting some rain later on this week from the remnants of Hurricane Sam as a result of that now coming a bit further SE than what had originally been forecast.

In addition to that, there is even the possibility that a trailing cold front from that same system could hang around here even as we head into the weekend, so perhaps the outlook for here might not be so dry after all.

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Interesting watching the GEFS models. The Ops run frequently wants to retrogress the high but most of the other runs do not. So the runs are averaging out on the warm side. I'm curious to see which wins out as it will have a big influence on how warm the month is.

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WX summary indicates weather blowing in from the NW for much of Europe which becomes increasingly cold and wet. Yje good news is that the UK is pn the edge of this and may get whatever warm weather is going, and not too much rain except the far NW

Jet - mostly a loop from the S covering UK (BBC saying the pattern is a side effect of Sam) with occasional brief reversions to a straight W-ly, these becoming more frequent later

GFS - mild SW-ly developing under influence of LP (ex-Sam) on Atlantic to Mon 11th when HP 1035 centred over Eire which unfortunately regresses somewhat with threats of N-lies fringing the E coast. The HP comes back later in the week with the SW-lies in place again Sun 17th before the sequence finishes with a generally W-ly regime

GEFS - dry to Fri 15th then small amounts of rain. Temps above norm, well above in N, untill Min 11th when mean of runs keep close to norm though op & control below around 13th and above around 17th. Temp swings less significant in far W, so it looks as if the position of the HP will be critical

ECM - similar to GfS, unlike yesterday allowing the N/NW-lies to come down the N Sea

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Yes there does seem quite a split on the position of the high next week as demonstrated by the GEFS this morning. A dry outcome seems nailed on for the south at least but half of the suite keeps temps high whereas the other half including the op wants to bring them way down again.

 

Ups and downs I guess. Assuming it doesn't turn cold in the AH conditions demand for heat may be offset against falls in renewable supply.

FWW I don't buy into the warm October/cold winter theory. It may well be that patterns are shifting somewhat anyway. Last winter was notably quiet hence the bouts of cold weather at times. Maybe this will be another one of those but who knows?

Yes, indeed. 1981 had a cold, unsettled October. This was followed by bitterly cold, snowy December and January. 

Yes there does seem quite a split on the position of the high next week as demonstrated by the GEFS this morning. A dry outcome seems nailed on for the south at least but half of the suite keeps temps high whereas the other half including the op wants to bring them way down again.

Yes just noticed this now, yesterday it looked pretty solid on average to above average 850s. Now a split has emerged between either very warm 850s which still seems slightly more likely, and much colder 850s.

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Yes just noticed this now, yesterday it looked pretty solid on average to above average 850s. Now a split has emerged between either very warm 850s which still seems slightly more likely, and much colder 850s.

There's been a split for several days. The Ops run regularly wants to retrogress the high out into the Atlantic, while the majority of others do not want to. The only real change is that the balance between warm and cool runs is more evenly balanced now.

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There's been a split for several days. The Ops run regularly wants to retrogress the high out into the Atlantic, while the majority of others do not want to. The only real change is that the balance between warm and cool runs is more evenly balanced now.

Seems a very unstable split to me, and it can be seen in the ensemble lines, especially in second week.  There are a few lines that switch from warm to cold very suddenly.  That suggests to me the warm and cold zone boundary is very close, and obviously exact location is critical.

Could easily end up with one corner of the country 10c warmer than other end of the country.  But that isn’t really going to be very stable outcome, so I am starting to wonder about local effects near the boundary zone.  Could result in some localised very heavy rain, and I wouldn’t rule out hail etc as well.  But far to early to know exactly where this boundary zone will be.

 

 

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WX summary - Uk on the edge of a cool/cold pool developing over central Europe with warmer colours showing to the SW. Not much rain in week 1, nothing at all in week 2, it's all up in Scandinavia or down in the eastern Med

Jet - loop running N around the UK occasionally running back down the N Sea early next week, then a quiet period around Sat 16th before the jet splits in two (different from yesterday), one arm  N and the other well  S of the UK from ca Tue 19th

GFS - a boost for temps with SW-lies for a couple of days (not reflected in my local temp forecast) then a broad area of HP over the UK for the w/e, diminishing and moving NW around Tue 12th to allow some cool N-ly on the E coast before re-establishing over all UK, until reduced to a col between LP SW & NE Thu 21st

GEFS - on the mild side to Tue 12th, cooler to Fri 15th (both more exaggerated in N), then mean of runs close to norm but with op & control supporting the warm side. No rain at first and not much until the very end of forecast and then mostly in NW.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP around Tue 12th is briefly further NW so a couple of days of cooler weather then

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hell of a chart for the GFS to finish on...

 

wouldnt look out of place in Feb

 

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 There's been a split for several days. The Ops run regularly wants to retrogress the high out into the Atlantic, while the majority of others do not want to. The only real change is that the balance between warm and cool runs is more evenly balanced now.

Looks like the Ops run was correct - for a few days at least. A cool down next week looks likely with a second anticyclone developing, before the high shifts east again and allows milder air to move back over the UK. The cool down will be most noticeable in eastern parts. The far west may not really notice any difference at all and in fact could see more sunshine with a more westerly based high.

Largely dry for the foreseeable too which would be a good thing after all of the recent rain. 

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Has anyone seen the latest CFS model forecast for the stratosphere at 10hpa?

It starts off cold at -60c around 03z and then finishes around -45c @ +384z. Not a SSW by any means but a warming for sure and very unusual to see it turn warmer than average towards the latter stages of October at a time when the stratosphere is meant to be cooling rapidly and the PV strengthening.

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