They've also been unsupported by the ensembles.

That continues this morning, incidentally, as the op is yet again "off on one" in the latter part of its run.

The question I'd ask Darren is why? Why are the ECM ops constantly off on one. There must be a reason or background signal that is causing this. On the 0z we are looking at mid teens at least by day 10. That really would be the end, although for me, exceptional warmth will do just as nicely as a freeze.

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Starting to look like another bake in the south to me. Things took a turn for the worse after the ELRF.

Indeed......Exeter's equivalent of putting polar bears on TWO's front page 

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Spot the difference...

The first chart is the ECM 00z op run, the second is the ensemble mean.

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Forget Day 10 as the output is all over the place, ECM really inconsistent etc.
However if you look at Saturday 00z, currently 144 hours away , apart from the UKMO the -5c 850hpa air is only just approaching my location on the GFS operational and GEM not yet at my location.
ECM not even close. In previous days the cold has been in by then on many models.
So far it looks to me like a blended solution in mid term in the cold air struggling south.

GFS ensemble (and ECM I hear) are consistent in bringing in the cold quicker.

Overall I wouldn't bet on an easterly outbreak as:
ECM operational consistently not interested, a warning sign in the past.
Any significant cold is +144 at best , far into FI.
Trend to blend on the operational which would further struggle to bring in the cold.

Ensembles give some hope.

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A couple of very upbeat posters this morning which is good to see.

The quietness in the MO discussion this morning is probably due to the fact that we have woken up to not see the charts we were expecting/ hoping to see following on from a near full house last night.

Lets face it...Its a mess.

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Hopefully it's more like -8c,  but we dont want our best models Op being such a constant dick do we .

Actually it ended up being -6°C at that point (in fact for the entire run the mean stayed below -6 and indeed below -8°C for periods).

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This has to be concern, ECM leading the pack:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html 

Can anyone clarify whether this data follows operationals, or mean output ?

As a veteran of 50 years of weather watching and 20 years plus of internet model watching, today I will take my own advice, go out, get some fresh air as its not 3c and lashing with rain.  I will cast an eye over the 12zs,as I did this morning's runs, I will always start with the ensemble or mean charts and then look at the operatoinals.

Im not expecting any kind of certainty until Tuesday.  (On the basis that if anything snowy for lowlanders in the south materialises, it will manifest by Sunday 7th). Some very tasty charts available for cherry pickers and some horror shows for the manic depressive in you.

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near.

 

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I’m taking the approach of avoiding cherry picking anything this morning. That is the reason I am upbeat.

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Actually it ended up being -6°C at that point (in fact for the entire run the mean stayed below -6 and indeed below -8°C for periods).

Yes an OP hopefully for the bin , massive mild outlier down here as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=314&y=142&run=0&type=0&runpara=0

 

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Both the ECM and the GFS operationals were at the both on the mild side of their respective suites down here. I suspect the goose will finally get away by Tuesday after we have completely exhausted ourselves chasing it ! 

I'm going out into the sunshine before the drizzle arrives later. 

/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021013100,0,2021013100&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.57&lon=-0.83&station_name=Reading,%20United%20Kingdom

 

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I wouldn’t bin it, rather say it is in a very small minority. It could always be correct and the vast majority of other output could be wrong (including the previous three op runs which had different scenarios).

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The theme of a slow motion car crash continues.

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It all just screams uncertainty at the moment. ECM quite a big mild outlier especially towards the end. GFS op not great, but the ens give hope all be it with lots of scatter.
As ever more runs needed to resolve the tricky mid term evolution. What happens to that LP system just to our West seems to be the key to either a cold route or mild route, and it kind of depends which route the op takes, dictates the mood.

Could be all change again on th 06z!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 - a very large mass of very cold air over NE Europe in week 2 but with sharp temp gradient around its edges , across Germany and alas! across the N Sea.

GFS adopting a half-hearted approach to easterlies with weak LPs tracking south Wed 3rd and Mon 8th but the isobars run from the Balkans, not the baltic so not that cold. Interesting storm off N Ireland Sun 14th 955mb combining with HP over Finland to produce S gales shifting to SE and offering the end-of-run possibility of much colder stuff esp in the N

GEFS - the S drops into a cold spell Fri 5th - Tue 9th (Scotland colder throughout) after which wide variation with op and control going in different directions - take your pick from 13C below norm (control) to an equal amount above (Scotland similar but less extreme). The exact direction of any NE/E/SE-ly is going to be critical and 'subject to change without notice'! Rain or snow esp in N around Wed 3rd and intermittently thereafter. 

ECM similar to GFS at first but developing a deeper area of LP Mon 8th and holding it back on the Atlantic to give strong and mild S-lies by  Wed 10th

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It all just screams uncertainty at the moment. ECM quite a big mild outlier especially towards the end. GFS op not great, but the ens give hope all be it with lots of scatter.
As ever more runs needed to resolve the tricky mid term evolution. What happens to that LP system just to our West seems to be the key to either a cold route or mild route, and it kind of depends which route the op takes, dictates the mood.

Could be all change again on th 06z!

Yes, the ECM goes off on its own as early as Tuesday looking at the ensembles and come Friday it is isolated leaving the other 50 below. The control run from ECM much better end brings in the cold along with the others. Very strange ECM run today.

Martin

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The ECM doesn’t want to drop that low south. God it’s awful run.

The razor blades are going to be out I. Force this morning.

F

You are the forums biggest drama queen 😁 I'd be getting the garden tools out if that run comes off, would be mild enough to get in the garden without my big coat 👍

Off-topic slightly but the consistency off the cold in the far north of the U.K. (250 miles or so north of here), which has been modelled well has led to some unusually chilly situations. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-55864302

It doesn’t look like warming up any time  soon http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=0&lat=60.2834008097&lon=-1.41509433962&runpara=0 

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F

You are the forums biggest drama queen 😁 I'd be getting the garden tools out if that run comes off, would be mild enough to get in the garden without my big coat 👍

Ive been on or following this forum for nearly 20 years. I’m definitely not. I’ve also seen the fallout when easterlys more often than not go wrong. 

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Off-topic slightly but the consistency off the cold in the far north of the U.K. (250 miles or so north of here), which has been modelled well has led to some unusually chilly situations. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-55864302

It doesn’t look like warming up any time  soon http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=0&lat=60.2834008097&lon=-1.41509433962&runpara=0 

 

That'll be Dover harbour next week. 

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