Sunday 16 May - Tuesday 25 May

It will most likely be remaining unsettled throughout the period, with Sunday seeing sunny spells and thundery showers. Coastal parts of eastern Scotland and northeast England may also remain rather cloudy and misty. Temperatures still a little below average for most. The north will perhaps see the best of any settled weather, with the south most likely to see any longer spells of more persistent rain. It's likely to be breezy at times, especially around coastal areas in the south and west of the country. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, with the best of any warmer spells in the southeast, and with the formation of any overnight frosts becoming less likely.

Monday 24 May - Monday 7 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period, although typical spring weather patterns are most probable, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most parts of the UK, especially at first. Overall, the driest and most settled conditions are most probable in the south, with the north generally more unsettled as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 17 May - Wednesday 26 May

It will most likely be remaining unsettled throughout the period, with Sunday seeing sunny spells and thundery showers. Coastal parts of eastern Scotland and northeast England may also remain rather cloudy and misty. Temperatures still a little below average for most. The north will perhaps see the best of any more settled weather, with the south most likely to see the bulk of showers and thunderstorms and any longer spells of more persistent rain. It's likely to be breezy at times, especially around coastal areas in the south and west of the country. Temperatures will be near to or slightly below average, with the best of any warmer spells in the southeast, and with the formation of any overnight frosts becoming less likely.

Tuesday 25 May - Tuesday 8 Jun

Confidence remains low for this period, although typical spring weather patterns are most probable, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most parts of the UK, especially at first. Conditions will probably become more settled late May and going into June, with an increasing likelihood of drier conditions for many. Overall, the driest and most settled conditions are most probable in the south, with the north generally more unsettled as longer spells of rain and strong winds arrive from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures likely to be around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Wednesday 12 May – Sunday 16 May

Cool often showery week. Occasionally cloudy.

The rest of this week is expected to continue much as it started, with a high pressure system in Russia preventing low pressure over the UK from moving away to the east. This means the weather will tend to be unsettled and cooler than normal, but also not particularly windy.

Afternoon showers will be likely most days with some thunderstorms mixed in too. A few days, namely Thursday and potentially Saturday, may see some longer spells of rain and cloudier skies. Although temperatures are a bit below average, afternoons will still feel warm with the higher sun angles of May.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 23 May

Cooler, showery, and unsettled weather.

Next week, and the final full week of May, we expect the high pressure system in Russia to linger, keeping a broad area of low pressure overhead. These highs are often called "blocking highs" since they act as roadblocks and prevent weather fronts from moving east. Instead, low pressure will remain in place and keep things unsettled and showery for the UK. In addition, the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will be displaced slightly to the south of us.

This is the main reason for the below average temperatures, as cooler air that is normally near Iceland is now over us instead. Around the middle of next week there is potential for a deeper low pressure system to send some weather fronts into the UK from the west. This would bring some widespread bands of rain and stronger winds for a few days. There is still some uncertainty on how far north the low will be. There's potential for some warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic to reach southern areas for a few days too, bringing temperatures briefly above average.

Confidence is medium for next week, mainly due to the low pressure system around midweek. We have high confidence it will be a cooler, wetter than normal week for most mixed with some sunny spells in the afternoons. The main risk for the forecast is that high pressure in Russia shifts too far west and reaches Poland or Germany. This would send warmer air into the UK from the south, and while it would still be wet it would also be much warmer with temperature a few degrees above average. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this developing.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 6 June

Staying rather cool and wet into early June.

For the end of May and early June, confidence is a bit lower, especially for temperatures. The computer model forecast skill is very poor at the moment due to the models struggling with high pressure in northern Europe. We expect the blocking high in Russia to tend to be a tenacious feature, but also gradually shift westwards with time. This will be a very slow movement and likely take weeks for the high to even reach eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that low pressure troughs will tend to be nearby or overhead, keeping the weather unsettled and feeling cooler than normal for the start of meteorological summer.

We also expect to see occasional strong low pressure systems track in from the Atlantic. These will bring some wetter, windier spells with a chance for some brief warmth too. We are leaning more on our historical analogues for this range of the forecast. This is where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we're seeing this year. 2001, 2012, and 1996 are proving to be useful years, with 2012 and 2001 being cool and wet while 1996 saw a brief heatwave in early June. 1996 highlights our main risk scenario, which is that high pressure shifts into Central Europe and send hot African air into the UK from the south. This could result in some well above average temperatures for several days. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing in early June.

Further ahead

We will consult some of the latest data to see if our risk of warmth in early June has increased and when we might break out of our cooler, wetter spring pattern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 18 May - Thursday 27 May

Continuing unsettled and rather cool with showers developing on most days. Each day the showers are likely to be locally heavy with the risk of thunder, perhaps parts of the south most prone to these on Monday. It's likely to be breezy at times too, especially around coastal areas in the west. Temperatures look to remain rather below average across the country, although in any sunshine and lighter winds it will feel quite pleasant. Where winds fall light and skies clear it is still possible we could see some overnight frost in sheltered, prone locations. Perhaps beginning to turn rather more settled toward the end of the period, but this very uncertain at this stage.

Thursday 27 May - Thursday 10 Jun

Confidence is low for this outlook as is typical of late spring and early summer. However perhaps a trend to rather more settled conditions as we move into early June with more in the way of dry weather and sunshine. With this we are likely to see a recovery in temperature too, although at this stage there is no strong signal for any very warm weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Apparently Shefali on BBC West Midlands weather mentioned the chance of a tornado on Sunday. Has any weather presenter ever used that term before in a forecast (not once one has happened) and more to the point is there any chance of such thing? 

Apparently Shefali on BBC West Midlands weather mentioned the chance of a tornado on Sunday. Has any weather presenter ever used that term before in a forecast (not once one has happened) and more to the point is there any chance of such thing? 

Alexis Green on BBC South last night said to look out for 'funnel clouds' on Sunday and to have cameras ready to send in pics.

Alexis Green on BBC South last night said to look out for 'funnel clouds' on Sunday and to have cameras ready to send in pics.

Saw a cracking one in Lincolnshire some years back with the bonus that I later learned it had demolished a friend's garden shed! They are not as uncommon as folks imagine, especially in our big skies where you can see what's going on!

R

Alexis Green on BBC South last night said to look out for 'funnel clouds' on Sunday and to have cameras ready to send in pics.

The air on Sunday will be "Returning Polar Maritime" which in conjunction with slack low pressure will be deeply unstable. All aspects of volatile convection are in the mix on that day.

Wednesday 19 May - Friday 28 May

Unsettled conditions continuing, with scattered showers again developing across most areas. To start the period, these may be heavy, and at times wintry in the far north, especially over hills. Further into this period, it is likely to remain changeable with a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers, though heavy in places with a risk of thunder. Brief spells of more organised cloud, bringing rain and strong winds, remain possible, particularly in the south. Generally staying breezy throughout. While temperatures by night are likely to below average, frost is expected to be restricted to prone locations, especially where winds fall light. By day, temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below average, notably cool in the South but cold in the North.

Friday 28 May - Friday 11 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, typical of Spring and early Summer. It is likely for conditions to remain changeable with showers at first, but probably becoming more settled with an increasing likelihood of drier conditions for many places. Temperatures possibly recovering to nearer average but with more settled conditions bringing some warmer days, and some cooler nights remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 20 May - Saturday 29 May

Unsettled conditions continuing, with scattered showers again developing across most areas. To start the period, these may be heavy, and at times wintry in the far north, especially over hills. Further into this period, it is likely to remain changeable with a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers, though heavy in places with a risk of thunder. Brief spells of more organised cloud, bringing rain and strong winds, remain possible, particularly in the south. Generally staying breezy throughout. While temperatures by night are likely to below average, frost is expected to be restricted to prone locations, especially where winds fall light. By day, temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below average, notably cool in the South but cold in the North.

Saturday 29 May - Saturday 12 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, typical of Spring and early Summer. It is likely for conditions to remain changeable with showers at first, but probably becoming more settled with an increasing likelihood of drier conditions for many places. Temperatures possibly recovering to nearer average but with more settled conditions bringing some warmer days, and some cooler nights remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Saturday 15 May – Sunday 23 May

A cool, unsettled week with some heavy showers.

Through this weekend and next week, we will continue to see a broad area of lower pressure over northern Europe, which has lingered here for some time now.
A weakened low will bring some unsettled and showery weather this weekend and early next week. Some of these showers will turn heavy bringing thunder and hail in places. Later in the week, a low pressure system is expected to push in from the southwest, keeping things unsettled. Throughout the weekend and whole of next week, temperatures will be below normal, with the coolest conditions expected next weekend.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 30 May

Cooler than normal with a chance of showers.

For the final week of May, high pressure is expected to build strongly to the west of Europe. This should push the broad low pressure trough to our east. This pattern will bring a colder northerly wind and keep temperatures well below average. Normally when high pressure is overhead, it means the weather is more settled and drier. However, in this case, the high is expected to be a little too far away to prevent showers completely. Lows will tend to be further east in East Europe or Scandinavia, so we shouldn't see anything too wet either.

The most likely scenario is scattered showers and occasional weak weather fronts mainly impacting northern and eastern areas. The risk of lowland frost will largely be gone as we are at the end of meteorological spring. The higher sun angles mean that any sunny spells in the afternoon will still feel warm despite the below average air overhead. We have high confidence on the temperatures being below average, but only medium confidence on the rainfall details for the week. High pressure will be nearby, and it is entirely possible that the ridge will push the vast majority of the rain into the North Sea or Scandinavia, resulting in a drier pattern.

This is also still a cooler pattern for the UK, but perhaps not quite as cold. Our risk scenario has a roughly 25% chance of developing, so we will have to keep an eye on how strong high pressure begins to build to the west of Spain next week. The computer models are very keen on high pressure shifting overhead and into Germany towards the end of the month, but they are had a very poor track record recently and are likely overestimating the strength of the high.

Monday 31 May – Sunday 13 June

A cool, unsettled start to meteorological summer.

The first half of June is expected to remain largely the same as the end of May: cooler than normal and wet. We expect in the first week of June high pressure will shift more into eastern Europe, allowing low pressure to return from the north. There may be a brief warm up as high pressure passes by, but cooler air will be quick to return as the low brings weak weather fronts in from the North Atlantic. The second week of June is still somewhat shrouded behind the fog of uncertainty.
Computer model skill is still quite poor, and they have done an exceedingly poor job forecasting the weather for May. For June, we are leaning more on some historical analogue forecasts. These are where we examine previous years that have had similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing this year.

The strongest signals are coming from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and Indian Ocean rainfall patterns. These weather pattern support a cooler than normal June with high pressure often being a feature west of Europe. We expect we may see high pressure rebuild to the west towards mid-June, bringing another shot of colder Atlantic air and some unsettled weather. The main alternative scenario is that instead high pressure builds over northern Europe and remains in place. This is referred to as a "blocking high" because the large pressure system acts as a roadblock, preventing weather fronts in the Atlantic from getting into Europe. In this case, it would be much drier and calmer with a lot of sunny days, but temperatures would still tend to be near or a bit below average. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing instead, so by mid-June confidence is low in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

We will closely watch the high pressure building near Spain to see if it will bring us a colder end to spring and start of summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 21 May - Sunday 30 May

Unsettled conditions continuing, with scattered showers again developing across most areas. These showers are likely to be heavy at times, with thunderstorms possible in places. On Friday and possibly into the weekend, more prolonged spells of rain are likely at times, especially in the west. Into next week, there is a chance of more settled conditions to gradually become established. Whilst further rain and showers are possible, overall drier and brighter conditions should become more dominant. Staying rather cool for the time of year, although night time frost will be limited, mainly across rural, northern areas. During next week, there are some indications that conditions may start to turn warmer, with temperatures closer to normal for the time of year.

Saturday 29 May - Saturday 12 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, typical of Spring and early Summer. It is likely for conditions to remain changeable with showers at first, but probably becoming more settled with an increasing likelihood of drier conditions for many places. Temperatures possibly recovering to nearer average but with more settled conditions bringing some warmer days, and some cooler nights remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 22 May - Monday 31 May

Unsettled conditions continuing, with scattered showers again developing across most areas. These showers are likely to be heavy at times, with thunderstorms possible in places. On Friday and possibly into the weekend, more prolonged spells of rain are likely at times, especially in the west. Into next week, there is a chance of more settled conditions to gradually become established. Whilst further rain and showers are possible, overall drier and brighter conditions should become more dominant. Staying rather cool for the time of year, although night time frost will be limited, mainly across rural, northern areas. During next week, there are some indications that conditions may start to turn warmer, with temperatures closer to normal for the time of year.

Monday 31 May - Monday 14 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, which is usual during spring and early summer. It is likely for conditions to remain changeable with showers at first, but probably also more settled at times with a higher likelihood of drier conditions for many places compared to recent weeks. Temperatures probably recovering to nearer average but with more settled conditions bringing some warmer days, and some cooler nights remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Devon Live makes the Express look like the Gold Standard in weather reporting.

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/long-range-weather-forecasts-reveal-5421863

Due to the uncertainty currently presented in weather forecasts, as demonstrated with incorrect forecasts this month, the BBC and MeteoGroup say that those issues, known as poor computer model skill, are quite poor.

According to the BBC and MeteoGroup’s monthly weather forecast, its sic set to be bad news at least for the first part.

Their monthly weather forecast has said that the first half of June is set to remain largely at the end of May meaning that temperatures will be cooler than normal and things are set to remain largely wet.

WTF

Sunday 23 May - Tuesday 1 Jun

Unsettled weather continues through the start of the period, with widespread showers. Persistent rain is also possible, turning heavy locally and moving eastwards through the UK, particularly on Sunday. As next week progresses there is a chance of more settled conditions to gradually become established. Rain and showers are likely to clear away to the east, leaving drier and less windy conditions behind by the end of the week. Temperatures look likely to remain on the cool side, though feeling pleasant in the sunshine. Night temperatures could become chilly, with late season frost in prone spots a possibility. As we move into the following week, things become more uncertain, but indications suggest a continuation of drier weather with the possibility of temperatures starting to increase slightly.

Monday 31 May - Monday 14 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, which is usual during spring and early summer. It is likely for conditions to remain changeable with showers at first, but probably also more settled at times with a higher likelihood of drier conditions for many places compared to recent weeks. Temperatures probably recovering to nearer average but with more settled conditions bringing some warmer days, and some cooler nights remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 24 May - Wednesday 2 Jun

Unsettled weather continues through the start of next week, with widespread showers. Persistent rain is also possible at times, particularly in the north and west. As next week progresses there is a chance of more settled conditions to gradually become established. Rain and showers are likely to become confined to the east, leaving drier and less windy conditions for the rest of the country. Temperatures look likely to remain on the cool side, though feeling pleasant in the sunshine. Night temperatures could become chilly, with late season frost in prone spots a possibility. As we move into the following week, things become more uncertain, but indications suggest a continuation of drier weather with the possibility of temperatures starting to increase slightly closer to normal.

Wednesday 2 Jun - Wednesday 16 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, which is usual during spring and early summer. Current expectations is that conditions will be predominantly dry, especially across the south and east. Less settled interludes are still possible, however, especially in the northwest. There are indications that temperatures will likely start recovering, moving more towards typical temperatures for this time of year. Settled conditions are likely to keep nights cool, but produce some warmer days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Saturday 15 May – Sunday 23 May

A cool, unsettled week with some heavy showers.

Through this weekend and next week, we will continue to see a broad area of lower pressure over northern Europe, which has lingered here for some time now. A weakened low will bring some unsettled and showery weather this weekend and early next week.

Some of these showers will turn heavy bringing thunder and hail in places. Later in the week, a low pressure system is expected to push in from the southwest, keeping things unsettled.Throughout the weekend and whole of next week, temperatures will be below normal, with the coolest conditions expected next weekend.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 30 May

Cooler than normal with a chance of showers.

For the final week of May, high pressure is expected to build strongly to the west of Europe. This should push the broad low pressure trough to our east. This pattern will bring a colder northerly wind and keep temperatures well below average. Normally when high pressure is overhead, it means the weather is more settled and drier. However, in this case, the high is expected to be a little too far away to prevent showers completely. Lows will tend to be further east in East Europe or Scandinavia, so we shouldn't see anything too wet either.

The most likely scenario is scattered showers and occasional weak weather fronts mainly impacting northern and eastern areas. The risk of lowland frost will largely be gone as we are at the end of meteorological spring. The higher sun angles mean that any sunny spells in the afternoon will still feel warm despite the below average air overhead. We have high confidence on the temperatures being below average, but only medium confidence on the rainfall details for the week.
High pressure will be nearby, and it is entirely possible that the ridge will push the vast majority of the rain into the North Sea or Scandinavia, resulting in a drier pattern.

This is also still a cooler pattern for the UK, but perhaps not quite as cold. Our risk scenario has a roughly 25% chance of developing, so we will have to keep an eye on how strong high pressure begins to build to the west of Spain next week. The computer models are very keen on high pressure shifting overhead and into Germany towards the end of the month, but they are had a very poor track record recently and are likely overestimating the strength of the high.

Monday 31 May – Sunday 13 June

A cool, unsettled start to meteorological summer.

The first half of June is expected to remain largely the same as the end of May: cooler than normal and wet. We expect in the first week of June high pressure will shift more into eastern Europe, allowing low pressure to return from the north. There may be a brief warm up as high pressure passes by, but cooler air will be quick to return as the low brings weak weather fronts in from the North Atlantic. The second week of June is still somewhat shrouded behind the fog of uncertainty.
Computer model skill is still quite poor, and they have done an exceedingly poor job forecasting the weather for May.

For June, we are leaning more on some historical analogue forecasts. These are where we examine previous years that have had similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing this year. The strongest signals are coming from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and Indian Ocean rainfall patterns. These weather pattern support a cooler than normal June with high pressure often being a feature west of Europe. We expect we may see high pressure rebuild to the west towards mid-June, bringing another shot of colder Atlantic air and some unsettled weather.

The main alternative scenario is that instead high pressure builds over northern Europe and remains in place. This is referred to as a "blocking high" because the large pressure system acts as a roadblock, preventing weather fronts in the Atlantic from getting into Europe. In this case, it would be much drier and calmer with a lot of sunny days, but temperatures would still tend to be near or a bit below average. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing instead, so by mid-June confidence is low in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

We will closely watch the high pressure building near Spain to see if it will bring us a colder end to spring and start of summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

i have just come across this page which goes into the fact that if nowhere in Scotland reaches 20°C or above by the end of tomorrow (that indeed, is not likely to happen), this will be only the first year since 1983 in which not a single location within here in Scotland has not got to 20°C or above by the same point of that particular year.

That indeed, should show us just how cold this spring has been.

Tuesday 25 May - Thursday 3 Jun

Unsettled weather continues through the start of next week, with widespread showers mainly across Central and eastern England. As next week progresses there is a chance of more settled conditions gradually becoming established from the west. Rain and showers likely becoming confined to the east, leaving drier and less windy conditions elsewhere. Temperatures look likely to remain slightly below average, though feeling pleasant in any sunshine. Some notably chilly nights are still possible, with some late season frost possible in prone spots. Becoming more uncertain into the following week, but indications most likely suggest a continuation of drier weather for most. Temperatures possibly increasing slightly closer to normal, but there is a risk of a few showers around and a return of rain bands into the west at times.

Thursday 3 Jun - Thursday 17 Jun

Confidence is low for this period, which is usual during spring and early summer. Current expectations is that conditions will be predominantly dry, especially across the south and east. Less settled interludes are still possible, however, especially in the northwest. There are indications that temperatures will likely start recovering, moving more towards typical temperatures for this time of year. Settled conditions are likely to keep nights cool, but produce some warmer days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/