Yellow Met Office warnings now out for both Monday and Tuesday for the entire UK (for storms).  Will certainly be narrowed down nearer the time but surely some places will get a spectacular show.

Yellow Met Office warnings now out for both Monday and Tuesday for the entire UK (for storms).  Will certainly be narrowed down nearer the time but surely some places will get a spectacular show.

Fingers crossed then for the first thunderstorm of the year here. Missed the summer ones last year though they seemed to be at all points of the compass but the lightning shield was obviously working back then for this tiny part of the UK. 

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I would probably say the area east of Hampshire up to the Midlands will be most at risk from the unstable imports. No issues crossing the Channel I would think, waterspouts and localised tornados a distinct possibility.

I would probably say the area east of Hampshire up to the Midlands will be most at risk from the unstable imports. No issues crossing the Channel I would think, waterspouts and localised tornados a distinct possibility.

You need some upper level support for that (at least at 850hPa) and I’m not seeing much of this until Weds maybe when the vectors at 700hPa pick up a bit.

At the moment I’d say it’s more an MCS risk typical of summer plume imports - gusty winds and hail.

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Warnings now covering the period Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

 

 

The set-up reminds me of these two past famous thunderstorm events. Top one from 1923 and the bottom one from 1925

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Now looks like I will have to wait until Tuesday for thunderstorms here. Monday now hot & sunny according to BBC 5 day forecast. 

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People shouldn't torture themselves by looking at app forecasts to look for thunderstorms. Met Office, BBC, iPhone etc - all the app forecasts will change multiple times as data gets refreshed. This is always true of course but becomes more important to take note of in times of uncertainty and when there will be sharp local variations.

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People shouldn't torture themselves by looking at app forecasts to look for thunderstorms. Met Office, BBC, iPhone etc - all the app forecasts will change multiple times as data gets refreshed. This is always true of course but becomes more important to take note of in times of uncertainty and when there will be sharp local variations.

Charts I have been looking for these has been changing all the time. On the whole, I would watch the BBC forecasts as they usually have a good handle on them. Then follow the radar, follow the lightning indicator.

Lot's of alto castellanus currently drift over us from the channel at the moment 😉

CAPE and Lifted Index figures looking conducive for thunderstorms Mon to Wed. Of course these are just a couple of the parameters to consider for whether thunderstorms may occur.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020080912/27-505UK.GIF?09-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020080912/54-505UK.GIF?09-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020080912/78-505UK.GIF?09-12

Good to see potentially another fantastic spell of thunderstorms to come for more or less the whole country!

Looks like the main risk for my area will be Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday, so fingers crossed. If it does happen, this could well be one of the most thundery summers for some time, and that's even taking into account a thunderless July!

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We've ready had three days with thunder back in June so anything else will he a bonus.  Would be nice to get some nighttime lightning though.

 I can see the odd very distant flicker over the French side of the Channel from here at Folkestone. 

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 I can see the odd very distant flicker over the French side of the Channel from here at Folkestone. 

Looks like a few cells are about to hit the SE coast not far from you Ian.

While not as severe, wouldn’t be surprised to see the storm potential extended to Friday and Saturday as well.

Not sure when or where, but it seems inevitable that somewhere this week will get the mother of all storms that will reach at least local news.

The CAPEs and general level of heat and moisture in the air, with gradually falling pressure, just ooze thunderstorm potential.

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Worst on Wednesday

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Yes watch the radar as they can form in a remarkably short time. That said this looks like a promising stab at the first storm of the year for me after a complete drought of thunderstorms this summer and last for that matter. A feeble Channel winter lightning show is not the same as a proper summer event making its way across the Channel towards Portland at dusk. Well at least for me.

There is what seems to be thundery stuff around Nantes as I type this and the lightning map is lightening up too in that area.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;y=48.6402;x=1.5765;z=7;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

 

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Definitely radar watch for next few days, seemed to be a small cell popped up south of Oxford - nice and early. Heating today could ensure a few intense cells pop up short notice