No Hadley

Metcheck                  19.05c       Anomaly       2.83c.

Netweather               19.49c       Anomaly      3.3c

Peasedown St John    17.43c       Anomaly      2.46c. Average of  9 Locals. 

It's a shame without Hadley. I hope they're not stopping.

 

It's a shame without Hadley. I hope they're not stopping.

19.2°C, provisional to 18th.

Assuming we end on 18.2 for August (hopeful, but not impossible), then the following, roughly, would give us our first 11°C CET for the year:

Sep. 14.0  Perfectly achievable, barely above average

Oct: 11.8  A degree or so above normal, but achieved in almost half of the last decade

Nov: 8.0  Again, 4 in the last decade

Dec: 6.7 Possibly the toughest call.

For 10.9 and a silver medal we could take .3 from each of those 4 months. But I still think 18.2 is a bit hopeful- we'd probably need nearly 17 for the rest of the month. Have to cling on a bit to GW's earlier-mentioned possibility of upjustment.

Assuming we end on 18.2 for August (hopeful, but not impossible), then the following, roughly, would give us our first 11°C CET for the year:

Sep. 14.0  Perfectly achievable, barely above average

Oct: 11.8  A degree or so above normal, but achieved in almost half of the last decade

Nov: 8.0  Again, 4 in the last decade

Dec: 6.7 Possibly the toughest call.

For 10.9 and a silver medal we could take .3 from each of those 4 months. But I still think 18.2 is a bit hopeful- we'd probably need nearly 17 for the rest of the month. Have to cling on a bit to GW's earlier-mentioned possibility of upjustment.

 

Thanks Bertie.

Climate change moves on at a pace. This new 'high water' mark is well within reach. Interesting but concerning times. 

19.1°C provisional to 19th.

Nice to see Hadley again. 19.1c anomaly 3.1c. It has been missed.

Metcheck            19.01c         Anomaly         2.79c

Netweather         19.44c         Anomaly         3.25c

Peasedown St John  18.66c    Anomaly        2.8c.  

19.1°C provisional to 19th.

Shall we all agree to stop the competition here for August.

I am happy with how its going, low 18s will be excellent 

I need the rest of August to be sub 14c to reach my 17.2c now.
Not gonna happen is it...

It could get close, believe it or not. Models are suggesting we may see a 'cool high' setup for the final 3-5 days of the month, with some fresh nights potentially dragging the CET down quite steeply.

For example, a rough estimate using the GFS 00z drops the CET out of the 18s on 29th and then finishes it in the mid-17s.

Due to the lengthening nights, clear, calm weather under a cool high can really hammer the CET in late August.

That's what I was counting on as part of my estimation of a CET in the high 16s - but it's not looking likely to arrive soon enough, assuming it does to begin with!

Still of mixed feeling over the possibility of a sub-18°C CET from such an impressive month first for the heatwave and then for the run of very mild nights occurring widely this past week. Seems a bit of a waste!

I am happy with how its going, low 18s will be excellent 

Yes it will 

Latest tracker suggests a final figure of 17.9C for August.

The CET will be above average today but after that close to or slightly below average

Chart 1

Chart 2

The summer CET is estimated to finish at 16.33C. This will be slightly above last year and slightly below 2016. It will likely be the third warmest summer since 2006.

Chart 3

Great to see Hadley back with its updates.

Thanks to GW and Stormchaser ( Simon and James) for your excellent and informative posts.

Thanks GW

So near to an 18C CET August lol!

Just one more hot day would have done it hehe! 

Metcheck               19.01c         Anomaly        2.79c

Netweather            19.49         Anomaly        3.2c         

Peasedown St John  18.68c       Anomaly       2.3c 

Thanks GW

So near to an 18C CET August lol!

Just one more hot day would have done it hehe! 

Probably true Gav- if everything moved a day forward so we got the 31st July on 1st August!

Latest tracker suggests a final figure of 17.9C for August.

Thats what I’m hoping for!

Chilly final few days to the ECM 12z. Overnight minima widely in the mid-single digits for 30th and 31st - would probably drag the CET down to the mid-17s.

The key time for the transition to a 'cool high' setup is still around 6 days away, so it could yet change to something warmer (or cooler still - but that's improbable, as the ECM 12z is about as cool as it gets for late August).

If it did finish at 17.9°C, that'd be the ultimate trolling act from my perspective - falling just short of the 18s but still over a degree above my estimate!

You just know it's going to, don't you .

19.0°C prov. to 21st.