I see Chris Whitty thinks a second wave will be more severe than the current one , not a happy thought 

I see Chris Whitty thinks a second wave will be more severe than the current one , not a happy thought 

Has he said that today?

This superb video has now clocked past 3 million views.

It’s a brutal 3-minute summary of New Zealand’s success vs the UK’s failure. Keep sharing it.pic.twitter.com/ABZ6sXbI96

— Mike Galsworthy (@mikegalsworthy) May 13, 2020

In terms of any measure I consider important, there is no comparison between the perennially excellent Ardern and the self-absorbed chancer Bozo.

 

Has he said that today?

Sorry for misleading , I had it sent to me , it was made on May 1st .

Probably still valid ………...I think 

 

Sorry for misleading , I had it sent to me , it was made on May 1st .

Probably still valid ………...I think 

 

I was forced to use the check out machine in Tesco yesterday because the normal queue was too long. I don't have any hand sanitiser so I was desperately trying not to touch my face as I went home. But any germs would have got on other things like wallet, and clothes etc

When I used them last in early March I was pressing the keypad with the end of the car keys

Has anyone on TWO had COVID-19? If so, I'd be keen to know their experience.

I find it hard to believe that nobody on here has had it. 

One of my close friends was tested positive and developed it with symptoms.

His experience was that it was quite unpleasant, there was alot of aches, nausea and extreme fatigue. He said he developed a dry cough at the end when he was already well recovered from it. He described it as being worse than a cold but not as bad as some of the flus he's had before.

This hasn't aged well. The wheel could turn full circle but at the moment it looks like the mortality rate is higher than 1% and quite possibly between 1.5% and 2%.

Professor Chris Whitty:

UK chief medical adviser: COVID-19 death rate may be 'much below' 1%

"I have a reasonably high degree of confidence that one percent is at the upper rate of what the mortality rate is, to be clear. What the director-general was reporting was essentially dividing the number of reported deaths by the reported number of cases and getting to a number," he said.

..

"My own view is it may well be lower than that, because there may well be a lot of people who are infected and have no symptoms who we can't currently identify. And, therefore, if anything, I think it'll go down from that rather than up."

https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-06/UK-chief-medical-adviser-COVID-19-death-rate-may-be-much-below-1--OCBTGXA0E0/index.html

Daily data

• Number of tests - 126,064


• People tested - 71,644


• New cases - 3,446


• All settings deaths - 428 

 

In countries with almost non-existent healthcare and very young populations, I would expect the overall effect of the pandemic to be very small because the vulnerable groups don't exist to the same extent that they do in wealthy countries.

 I am not sure that was the general opinion at the time   So with poor healthcare, 99% black, little PPE they have done better yet i think old folk live with their families in many parts of Africa yet that was cited as the reason for Italy,s high deathrate. 

 Lots of unknowns at the moment .

The backdated data today shows the earliest recorded death was April 4th with May 12th the highest single day for reported deaths

FWIW, 'all announced deaths' now has a breakdown by some pre-existing conditions. The percentages add up to more than 100 but i guess that is because some people have multiple pre-existing conditions. The list isnt that exhaustive though - 'other' accounts for 70% of cases. Diabetes accounts for 26% of deaths (could be linked to obesity being a factor?). 

Number of under 40s who have died with no known pre-existing condition now stands at 33.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

The backdated data today shows the earliest recorded death was April 4th with May 12th the highest single day for reported deaths

Hospital deaths do seem to show a plateau in the first week or so of this month. Might be heading down now (difference from 7th to 9th) although the last week's deaths will get added to over the coming days and it will be a while before we can say if it is a slight downward trend or not.

 In terms of any measure I consider important, there is no comparison between the perennially excellent Ardern and the self-absorbed chancer Bozo.

 

Even the Australian neocon PM has done much better than ours, the other day he called the herd immunity strategy 'a death sentence for vulnerable people'.

This hasn't aged well. The wheel could turn full circle but at the moment it looks like the mortality rate is higher than 1% and quite possibly between 1.5% and 2%.

It's even worse than this, at various points in March and early April some UK scientists were speculating about 20-40% of the population having had the virus, that it is unstoppable and that it was just a matter of time before everyone got it. I think the influenza thinking and preparation has biased a lot of thinking and there was a clear failure to see at what was happening in other countries.

 

 I am not sure that was the general opinion at the time   So with poor healthcare, 99% black, little PPE they have done better yet i think old folk live with their families in many parts of Africa yet that was cited as the reason for Italy,s high deathrate. 

 Lots of unknowns at the moment .

I expect for the majority of the population in Africa there are fewer people going on ski-ing hoidays, jollies to international conferences, big stadium concerts, massive sporting gatherings, etc. Therefore far fewer initial spreaders so the epidemic will take a lot longer to manifest itself.