Precisely!

“There was no detail but people won’t read the details”

There in a nutshell is the problem: there’s a bandwagon rolling to suit every negative interpretation.

It was not a great effort and the timing was abysmal: why a Sunday evening? But there’s no pleasing some folk.

I despair, Gandalf! Many folks don't heed the existing messages on food ingredients/Traffic Light scores, or the warning notices on tobacco or alcohol. What chance they will get the small print in the cov-exit strategy? The statistics below tell the story.

"4 Apr 2019 - In total, poor diet was found to be responsible for 90,000 deaths in the UK a year – around one seventh of the 607,000 fatalities annually." [Telegraph]

"Every year around 78,000 people in the UK die from smoking, with many more living with debilitating smoking-related illnesses. Smoking increases your risk of developing more than 50 serious health conditions." [NHS]

"In the UK, in 2016 there were 9,214 alcohol-related deaths (around 15 per 100,000 people). The mortality rates are highest among people aged 55-69 [4]. In the UK in 2018 there were 7,551 alcohol-specific deaths (around 11.9 per 100,000 people)." [AlcoholChange]

To be sure there will be overlaps and confounding underlying factors here - but if we speak of 250,000 deaths per annum attributable to these causes we won't be far out. This total could have been substantially reduced by public compliance.

Sadly I expect many of these deaths will be people who for some reason could be characterised as "vulnerable."

R

 

Roger

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Well this is the nub of the problem isn't it. Boris's task was to summarise an incredibly complex scientific and social problem, one which normally involve lots of complicated calculations of R, movement of people, transport loads, mixing in shops, etc etc, and crystallise it into a 400-500 word message that would reassure Trev from Clacton that he wouldn't lose his job whilst showing some possible tentative way out of lockdown.

The previous message was clear, the question has always been what should follow that. No one, including the government or anyone on here has come up with an effective exit plan. Particularly in London it is virtually impossible to co-ordinate a valid response for getting people back to work and maintain distancing whilst not shutting down for probably close to a year at best. I'm not sure anyone else has worked it out in similarly laid out cities either which is why Madrid, Paris etc remain closed. So what is the way out? 

  It’s everyone’s responsibility to look after themselves so nitpicking and squabbling about minor points is fruitless, so is cherry picking ( oh hang on, that is fruit ).  This shouldn’t be a political row that divides us, it’s a national emergency that we’re all fighting and someone has to lead in that.

I think everyone on here is intelligent enough to comprehend the speech.  There will be idiots who flout the rules but that’s up to them. If they pick up the virus, they should be no threat to those of us who are vigilant, wash hands, stay 2 metres away etc. 

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Raab spent much of the interview saying that the relaxations announced last night would not come into effect until Wednesday. I suspect a reverse ferret is being prepared.

Unusually I got up early today, woken by the bin men, so I decided to go for a drive to the park, and its already busy with what looked like family members from different households meeting up

People aren't going to wait till Wednesday

 

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Polling by yougov of 6564 people. Very close between support and opposition for the changes (at least in a general sense). Perhaps noteworthy that the retired are very largely in favour by 53% to 31% while the working age population is less so. Only 30% seem to think that the new slogan is clear at the moment. Rather strangely the crossbreaks are by how people voted in the 2017 election rather than the 2019 election, assume that will be changed at some point.

 

Do you oppose or support the changes (see link for exact question)

Support 44%

Oppose  43%

 

Do the lockdown changes go

46% too far

35% about right

10% not far enough

 

Which of the slogans are clear (see link for exact phrasing)

63% only 'stay at home, etc'

28% both

2% only 'stay alert'

7% neither

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h6nwhcsrrv/GMBResults_200511.pdf

A 50-page document will be released at 2pm it's expected to contain a list of which workers can return to work

This shouldn’t be a political row that divides us, it’s a national emergency that we’re all fighting and someone has to lead in that.

I think everyone on here is intelligent enough to comprehend the speech.  There will be idiots who flout the rules but that’s up to them. If they pick up the virus, they should be no threat to those of us who are vigilant, wash hands, stay 2 metres away etc. 

This is not China. This is a democracy (just about) and we allowed to question the govt

The speech was an incoherent mess, unless you are a Tory voter, in which case it rivalled the Gettysburg address

If someone picks up the virus because of this relaxation, washing hands and being vigilant is not going to protect you for the same reasons the virus spread in the first place

I despair at the forelock tugging displayed by people I respect

 

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Oh FFS... this is so dangerous. How many lives will @DominicRaab have cost with his shambolic interviews today? Absolute disgrace. https://t.co/yiWfC09bVO

— *****Morgan (@piersmorgan) May 11, 2020

 

I despair, Gandalf! Many folks don't heed the existing messages on food ingredients/Traffic Light scores, or the warning notices on tobacco or alcohol. What chance they will get the small print in the cov-exit strategy? The statistics below tell the story.

 

The difference is that one set of information affects the individual whereas the other affects everybody.

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#CoronaVirusUpdate 🇪🇺

🇫🇷 France, primary schools will start with small numbers of pupils today, and clothes shops, bookshops, hair salons and florists will reopen

🇧🇪 Belgium, most business will open on Monday with social distancing

But restaurants, cinemas and bars remain shut

— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) May 11, 2020

🇪🇸 Some of Spain, gatherings of up to 10 people allowed and outdoor spaces at restaurants can reopen with social distancing

🇩🇰 Denmark, shopping centres can reopen on Monday

🇵🇱 Poland, hotels reopen this week - although foreign tourists still have to quarantine for two weeks

— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) May 11, 2020

 

However, the tools to manage the easing need to be in place. 1) More data to determine the current level of infection (randomised antigen and antibody testing) 2) Testing and mass contact tracing. Without them a very difficult task becomes an impossible one. 

We are sending swabs to America to be tested! Some are taking 10 days to get results. We haven't had mail deliveries since Thursday due to the Bank holiday and Saturday delivery suspended. 

Its a farce

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Oh FFS... this is so dangerous. How many lives will @DominicRaab have cost with his shambolic interviews today? Absolute disgrace. https://t.co/yiWfC09bVO

— *****Morgan (@piersmorgan) May 11, 2020

Can I meet my drug dealer in the park now?

Its a fucking joke 

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After last night,s announcement.

https://youtu.be/DDTvLldOgZs?t=3

In an area like  Greater London (the countries economic power house)  commuting is overwhelmingly by Public Transport.  This implies  some kind of rationing   will have to be implemented but on what basis ?  Economic importance of your activity ?  First come, first served ? 

 

All the companies I deal with in the City have almost everybody working from home.

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Had Prime Minister Gaze made the speech last night it would have been very short and to the point. Highlights below:

Nothing is changing. Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives. We will review again in 3 weeks time.

The reasons for this are that scaling up contact tracing and antibody testing are both taking longer than we expected. However, progress is being made on both fronts. In addition we will be implementing a national randomised antigen testing programme to establish the current rate of infection.

The number of infections is falling but it is not yet at a manageable level. Therefore, to crush this virus to a level we can control the same rules must continue to apply. The economic cost is huge but it will be even higher if we ease now and have to slam on the brakes again in a few weeks or months.  

 

I would vote for PM Gaze

Is Gauke still doing your gardening?

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  It’s everyone’s responsibility to look after themselves so nitpicking and squabbling about minor points is fruitless, so is cherry picking ( oh hang on, that is fruit ).  This shouldn’t be a political row that divides us, it’s a national emergency that we’re all fighting and someone has to lead in that.

I think everyone on here is intelligent enough to comprehend the speech.  There will be idiots who flout the rules but that’s up to them. If they pick up the virus, they should be no threat to those of us who are vigilant, wash hands, stay 2 metres away etc. 

 Good post Far better reading than some of the political diatribe that has to be waded through on here

 

 Good post Far better reading than some of the political diatribe that has to be waded through on here

Who is making it political?

Whatever fence politically you sit on, they should be scrutinised. We are not NK.

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 Good post Far better reading than some of the political diatribe that has to be waded through on here

I say this all the time, but the Culture wars that have afflicted America are well and truly here since Brexit. Total blinkered tribalism. Treating "libtards" as the enemy within. 

The Trump fanatic who called into James O'Brien last year summed it up perfectly "Yes, I know he is a racist liar, but I don't care, because it upsets people like you" 

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Who is making it political?

Whatever fence politically you sit on, they should be scrutinised. We are not NK.

Scrutinise and condemnation are quite different.

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Conservative MP Andrew Bridger has just told raging bull @piersmorgan that he’s always been allowed to visit his 2 sons if he maintains social distancing.

So he has been breaking lockdown rules.

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Hopefully there will be clarity come 14:00 however, I expect some people would pick holes whatever had been done/said.

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