Coronavirus: Scientist who predicted 5,700 deaths now says final toll will be much higher

When the modelling is so bad, it's probably best if it doesn't get published and certainly not used too much. That was my criticism of the early approach, that too much weight was given on epidemiological modelling, instead of looking at real data and taking a public health approach.

It'd be wonderful news though if the rate of increase of hospital admissions has started falling, this is the most critical number. I still think we won't see death numbers anywhere as high as Italy and Spain and I believe living in flats and the close family links are the reasons for it. The latter is probably the same reason why we are seeing high numbers in the west midlands. We did push our luck though with out stupidity in early March, when herd immunity was all the rage.

This post is nonsense. We are not pursuing ‘herd immunity’. We are trying to delay until a vaccine becomes available 

Here you go - couple of articles in the Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/29/michael-gove-accuses-china-hiding-true-scale-coronavirus-crisis/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

"The initial reporting from China was "not clear" about the scale or the infectiousness of Covid-19, Mr Gove said.

China’s failure to give “clear” information about the spread of the coronavirus has been blamed for worsening the spread of the disease amid a growing diplomatic row with Beijing.

Michael Gove said China had not shared accurate data about the “scale, nature and infectiousness” of the disease, as Downing Street sources suggesting the Communist superpower would face a “reckoning” when the pandemic is over.

..."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/herd-immunity-way-impasse/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

"Herd immunity is the only way out of this impasse

Just over two weeks ago Patrick Vallance told the Today programme that the government’s strategy for fighting the Covid-19 outbreak was built around herd immunity. This is a tried and tested method for managing outbreaks of infectious disease: once a sufficiently large proportion of the population has some form of immunity, acquired either through vaccination or surviving a disease, it becomes impossible for it to spread. Herd immunity worked for smallpox and it worked for measles - or at least it did until the anti-vaxxers decided that they would exercise their freedom of choice by refusing to immunise themselves or their children.

The problem with herd immunity acquired through infection is that it comes at a price: namely that, in this first epidemic (and be in no doubt that this is not the only outbreak of Covid-19 that we will endure), the disease runs riot and the mortality is substantial. A large number of at-risk people will die while the rest of..."

Here's more about what Ferguson has said:

A senior Government adviser has claimed the coronavirus outbreak shows "early signs of slowing" in the UK, as he suggested around two million Britons could have already had the disease.

Professor Neil Ferguson said there have been "indicators" that the speed of transmission of the virus was slowing, such as the rate of hospital admissions.

He said: "We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now.  It is the result of the actions people have taken and Government has taken."

However, he said that the coronavirus curve of infection rates had "not yet plateaued".

He also suggested up to three per cent of Britons have already had Covid-19, meaning two million people could have already been infected.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/30/politics-latest-news-government-adviser-neil-ferguson-says-early/

On that specific point it's difficult to know how likely he thinks that is.

Breaking: PMs advisor Dominic Cummings is self isolating with coronavirus symptoms

Here's more about what Ferguson has said:

A senior Government adviser has claimed the coronavirus outbreak shows "early signs of slowing" in the UK, as he suggested around two million Britons could have already had the disease.

Professor Neil Ferguson said there have been "indicators" that the speed of transmission of the virus was slowing, such as the rate of hospital admissions.

He said: "We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now.  It is the result of the actions people have taken and Government has taken."

However, he said that the coronavirus curve of infection rates had "not yet plateaued".

He also suggested up to three per cent of Britons have already had Covid-19, meaning two million people could have already been infected.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/30/politics-latest-news-government-adviser-neil-ferguson-says-early/

On that specific point it's difficult to know how likely he thinks that is.

 

Its strange how he has come to that conclusion. I understood that we were only testing those in hospital. And new cases have surged in recent days.

The messaging over the last 5 days has been very confusion it’s hard to get a clear picture of what’s going on. Only yesterday we had the deputy CMO that measures could still be in place for months. Why would she say this if admissions were slowing down.

On another note. Did you get your hospital procedure done and is everything OK?  My hubby is still waiting for his op, although we didn’t expect anything other under the circumstances. 

No. It was cancelled two days beforehand. Suspect that I will be waiting for at least 12 months now - can't even go private because private hospitals have been nationalised effectively. Hope your hubby is bearing up.

On the topic of vaccine development:

https://theconversation.com/labs-are-experimenting-with-new-but-unproven-methods-to-create-a-coronavirus-vaccine-fast-134319

Conclusion: therapies will become available, but don't hold your breath.

Cummings self isolating with symptoms now. Do you think it was part of the herd immunity strategy that they all got it themselves...

The messaging over the last 5 days has been very confusion it’s hard to get a clear picture of what’s going on. Only yesterday we had the deputy CMO that measures could still be in place for months. Why would she say this if admissions were slowing down.

You have to allow the measures time to depress infection rates to levels where it is safe to lift restrictions. That takes time.

 

Its strange how he has come to that conclusion. I understood that we were only testing those in hospital. And new cases have surged in recent days.

The messaging over the last 5 days has been very confusion it’s hard to get a clear picture of what’s going on. Only yesterday we had the deputy CMO that measures could still be in place for months. Why would she say this if admissions were slowing down.

Perhaps because the data show that cases are slowing down.

Shouldn't this tester be wearing an FFP3 mask? She seems to be wearing a surgical mask. I think longer gloves are also recommended.

(source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/30/uk-coronavirus-live-rate-infection-lockdown-covid-19)

Obviously 'essential' means different things to different people. I have just returned from Weymouth after fitting new tyre and buying essentials at ASDA. First time out since last Monday.

On the way back passed someone towing a speedboat to who knows where.

Nick

 

You have to allow the measures time to depress infection rates to levels where it is safe to lift restrictions. That takes time.

Exactly so. With an incubation period of typically 7-14 days we need to wait for a couple of weeks to see the possible impact of any changes. I think what we're seeing now may reflect the precautions and changed behaviours of individuals before the government edict last week. 

The same will apply on the way out of this: a gradual easing followed by a period to assess the impact. I think that might be the more difficult, protracted period because people will have been through weeks of severe restrictions and there must be a risk of a collective sigh of relief and too many people trying to return to normality.

It seems likely that controls on events where large numbers gather could continue for quite some time. Maybe allowing more shops to open but with tight controls over how many are allowed in a shop at any one time and re-opening parks and public spaces, again with some controls.  Somehow I can't see large numbers being allowed at sporting events for some time after the rules start to be eased.

Looking further ahead, with the virus likely to be raging through other parts of the world such as the Indian Subcontinent and Africa, controls on movement are likely to remain for a very long time.

Spain have announced 5,085 new cases and 537 new deaths

That's a fall in new cases and deaths when compared to the same 12-hour period to Sunday morning

New cases are down 477 whilst new deaths have fallen by 9

This was from the BBC earlier:

Spain has reported 812 new deaths related to coronavirus since Sunday.

Authorities said nearly 6,400 more people have also been infected.

No. It was cancelled two days beforehand. Suspect that I will be waiting for at least 12 months now - can't even go private because private hospitals have been nationalised effectively. Hope your hubby is bearing up.

Hubby’s OK thanks!  His symptoms are no worse but there’s the worry of not knowing what this thing inside him is doing!  He also considered going private for his surgery, but as you say, that isn’t an option now.  We live with the thought that others are worse off than us, so we shouldn’t complain!  

It is a bit ironic that we’ve worked all our lives into our sixties, with no illness or injury and never having real need for the NHS until now, when everyone else needs it too!  Sod’s law!  

New global cases were down 10% on Sunday to 59,232 from Saturday's total of 65,155

Global deaths also fell to 3,105 from 3,518 on Saturday

Those might be the official stats, but they bear no relationship whatsoever to reality worldwide. The contagion is ripping through Pakistan for example, but because their test rates are so low and their health systems so creaking, there is no reliable value for the numbers. Same goes for rest of Indian sub-continent.

The big unknown is Africa - South Africa and Zimbabwe are known hotspots, but getting reliable date from across the continent is almost impossible.

It will be a couple of years before a more realistic assessment can be made - in the meantime, treat official figures from anywhere as purely indicative of trends.