That gives me a bit of confidence in my guess and it’s good news for Col.  All we need then is a slightly cooler final week, which shouldn’t be a big ask for October!  Oops!  Now I’ve blown it!  

 

I hope you get this month spot on, Caz.

---

 

 

I hope you get this month spot on, Caz.

  Nah!  I think you should win it this month Saint!  

---

Met Office Hadley          11.8c.      Anomaly        -0.1c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                       11.43c     Anomaly        0.92c

Netweather                    11.99c     Anomaly        1.6c

Peasedown St John   12.0c.     Anomaly     0.0c.            

---

Met Office Hadley         11.8c.       Anomaly       0.0c. provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      11.35c      Anomaly       0.84c

Netweather                   11.99c      Anomaly       1.6c

Peasedown St John          11.9c       Anomaly       -0.1c.

 

---

Interesting late stages to the GFS 00z, but otherwise, yet another run producing an extraordinarily average run of temps overall, with my rough CET estimate dropping a very typical 0.5*C between today and 24th, to sit in the low 11s.

It's still in the low 11s as of 24th, before a sudden dive into the low 10s for month's end.

Goes without saying - that Arctic incursion can't be relied upon to get the CET down like that. Having said that, though, the general idea of a pumped-up, poleward-reaching mid-Atlantic ridge featuring at some point in the final 3rd of the month is not unreasonable for a Nina-like background with not very well organised tropospheric polar vortex.

---

Met Office Hadley          11.7c.      Anomaly      0.0c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       11.32c     Anomaly      0.81c

Netweather                    11.92c.    Anomaly      1.53c

Peasedown St John       11.9c        Anomaly      -0.1c

 

---

Going down now but I’m hoping it doesn’t fall too quickly.  

---

Going down now but I’m hoping it doesn’t fall too quickly.  

Anything at or lower than my prediction of 10.85C would suit me!

---

Bit of a shift from the GFS 12z then...!

Even with a slight upward bias adjustment, it tumbles my rough CET estimate from the low 11s as of 24th to the mid-9s as 31st gets underway. 

Ouch! 

Thankfully for those who went for double digits, ECM looks more interested in directing the main plunge of cold air east of the UK - albeit a bit close for comfort on the 12z. Risk of ending up in a foggy type chilly situation though, if winds fall light with 850s of, say, 5*C or more.

---

Bit of a shift from the GFS 12z then...!

Even with a slight upward bias adjustment, it tumbles my rough CET estimate from the low 11s as of 24th to the mid-9s as 31st gets underway. 

Ouch! 

Thankfully for those who went for double digits, ECM looks more interested in directing the main plunge of cold air east of the UK - albeit a bit close for comfort on the 12z. Risk of ending up in a foggy type chilly situation though, if winds fall light with 850s of, say, 5*C or more.

Hmm!  So much uncertainty but certainly interesting times.  No doubt there are more shifts in the output to come.  

---

Met Office Hadley          11.7c.      Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to15th.

Metcheck                       11.30c     Anomaly        0.79c

Netweather                    11.91c     Anomaly        1.52c

Peasedown St John      11.75c.    Anomaly    -0.25c.        

---

Met Office Hadley       11.7c.     Anomaly      0.2c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    11.17c    Anomaly      0.66c

Netweather                 11.9c      Anomaly      1.51c

Peasedown St John     11.9c      Anomaly       -0.1c.  

---

Hmm!  So much uncertainty but certainly interesting times.  No doubt there are more shifts in the output to come.  

...and then some!

Everything from super-balmy long-draw southerlies on a brisk flow, to an early visit of continental cold from the east, has been scampering across the table in today's GFS output. An abrupt spell of HLB across Greenland, driven by events outside the tropics (namely, a big push of air against mountains in Asia, driving a regional disruption of the polar vortex's flow downstream across N. America and into Greenland) - which will undermine its longevity (tropical support is needed for that) - is largely to blame.

Even in the 7-10 day range, ECM's steadfast on a strong tropical maritime influence for at least a time, but GFS is asking questions of that (i.e. perhaps the low will be far enough west that we enjoy more than a fleeting spell under high pressure for a change?).

---

 

...and then some!

Everything from super-balmy long-draw southerlies on a brisk flow, to an early visit of continental cold from the east, has been scampering across the table in today's GFS output. An abrupt spell of HLB across Greenland, driven by events outside the tropics (namely, a big push of air against mountains in Asia, driving a regional disruption of the polar vortex's flow downstream across N. America and into Greenland) - which will undermine its longevity (tropical support is needed for that) - is largely to blame.

Even in the 7-10 day range, ECM's steadfast on a strong tropical maritime influence for at least a time, but GFS is asking questions of that (i.e. perhaps the low will be far enough west that we enjoy more than a fleeting spell under high pressure for a change?).

Nightmare scenarios for forecasters, which is what makes our weather so interesting.  We’ll probably end up with something in between!  It’s a bit like Christmas, you don’t always know what you’re going to get until the day it arrives!  

All to play for then!  

---

Nightmare scenarios for forecasters, which is what makes our weather so interesting.  We’ll probably end up with something in between!  It’s a bit like Christmas, you don’t always know what you’re going to get until the day it arrives!  

All to play for then!  

More like the Forrest Gump approach :)

All to play for as always, but please, no balmy southerlies!

---

Last year the late October cold snap was actually pretty intense. The month reminded me of Oct 1997 in that it produced extremes of both warm and cold in alternating bursts. This month has thus far had quite a bland temperature profile so maybe it can produce something jn the second half. My heater is still gathering dust ; will I have turn it on before the month ends or will we stay above average... all to play for...

Met Office Hadley           11.6c.       Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to  17th.

Metcheck                        11.13c      Anomaly       0.62c

Netweather                     11.8c        Anomaly       1.41c

Peasedown St John         11.82c      Anomaly         -0.1c.

 

Will a drop to  9.92c occur for the end of the month.......

 

 

---

Latest CET tracker shows that the next 5 days will be rather cool. After that the final week of the month looks relatively mild.

Overall the CET is currently expected the settle just under 11C and finish at 10.88C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Latest CET tracker shows that the next 5 days will be rather cool. After that the final week of the month looks relatively mild.

Overall the CET is currently expected the settle just under 11C and finish at 10.88C.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Oooh!  Nice!  You’re always rather accurate with your projections, so I do hope this isn’t a glitch, although I see my 10.8c guess is in good company. 

---

Met Office Hadley          11.5c.      Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                       11.04c     Anomaly      0.53c

Netweather                    11.75c     Anomaly      1.36c

Peasedown St John        11.6c.     Anomaly      -0.4c 

---