Actually, the very latest NHC cone is worse for me with Lorenzo possibly running North East through the St.Georges Channel. On that path, Wales and South West England are also in the firing line. My guess, though, is that Lorenzo won't be quite as potent as Ophelia if/when it arrives.

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Its catogary 5 now according to ADT

Again this should be understood as the upper level instantaneous limit.

However it does mean even if Lorenzo does not get declared a Cat5 operationally it could be in post analysis.

 

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If it wants to get to Cat5 it needs to do it quickly. EWRCs are going to be an issue and the shear is still moderately high. However MPI suggests Cat5 is possible.

 

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Lorenzo seems to have symmetrized its eyewall now. Dvorak has it at T6.8

Bottom level cat5 is T7.0

 

The instantaneous dvorak tends to be the upper limit of what the storms intensity actually is.

Nevertheless I'd expect the SLP to be around 935mb and the wind around 125kt or around 10kt short of Cat5.

 

Official Update at 0Z had it at 125kt.

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Holy crap ADT now at 7.1 and still rising!

 

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It's not often you see the NHC track forecast showing a landfall in Ireland! Lorenzo due to arrive as a Tropical Storm in Kerry 8pm Thu.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023639.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023639.shtml?tswind120?#wcontents

and this site says it has achieved cat 5 status

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Lorenzo-Muscles-Its-Way-Category-5-Strength?cm_ven=cat6-widget

 

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On the way down now but maxed out at 140kt.

We made it to catogary 5.

 

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The official NHC guidance has Lorenzo as a Cat 5! The strongest (and only Cat 5) storm recorded this far north and east in history.

Flores in the Azores is sadly still in line for a direct hit roughly 65 hours from now. Lorenzo is forecast to be down to a strong Cat 2 then but would still be the strongest storm ever to hit the Azores with the possible exception of a Cat 2 back in 1926.

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Incredible stuff. Most GFS ens have it missing Ireland though, but euros disagree

 

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Incredible stuff. Most GFS ens have it missing Ireland though, but euros disagree

 

Latest ECM operational does not show anything too significant. Strongest gusts of 67mph but out at sea

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/gusts-3h-mph/20191004-0000z.html

Control run is worse with gusts up to 83mph near the southern Irish coast

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m0_gusts-3h-mph/20191003-2100z.html

Lots of scatter within the ENS with most runs showing nothing of note near the UK. On the other hand Pert 25 has the strongest winds to the north west of Ireland at 98mph 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m25_gusts-3h-mph/20191004-0000z.html

Incredible stuff. Most GFS ens have it missing Ireland though, but euros disagree

 

I hope GFS has it right. It's deja-vu all over again for me. Two years after Ophelia, I find myself again in the odd situation of scanning the NHC website and instead of seeing Florida or Cuba at risk as usual, it's Ireland. 

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It's not often you see the NHC track forecast showing a landfall in Ireland! Lorenzo due to arrive as a Tropical Storm in Kerry 8pm Thu.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023639.shtml?cone#contents

 

Note the H and S in a white circle as it approaches Ireland - that means it's extratropical by that stage. You'd need a black circle for it to be tropical.

 

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Looking still tropical at 102h!

 

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My gut instinct is that it will be more resiliant than Ophelia. Stronger and bigger storms are more resiliant against shear. Will depend to some degree what state its core is in though. During EWRCs its more vulnerable.

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Hope GFS has got this right. Seems consistent and would deliver some warm weather

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What's remarkable is that we have had one of these NE storms every year since 2017.

In 2017 we had Ophelia, 2018 we had Leslie (above).

Leslie got within 100 miles of being the 2nd European TC ever.

 

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My gut instinct is that it will be more resiliant than Ophelia. Stronger and bigger storms are more resiliant against shear. Will depend to some degree what state its core is in though. During EWRCs its more vulnerable.

Its weakening now, but impressive to break the record nonetheless

 

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Hope GFS has got this right. Seems consistent and would deliver some warm weather

 

I don't think track/intensity are particularly related but its worth noting the EC performed much better than the GFS suggesting Cat4 and with some Cat5 ensembles. No other model (even the hurricane specific models) got the intensity close to correct.

 

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Core still warm at this late stage

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Its weakening now, but impressive to break the record nonetheless

 

I think the weakening is related to an EWRC though.

I doubt it will get back to Cat5 but after the EWRC completes I'd expect perhaps a tertiary peak and the wind field will expand even further so the storm will become huge.

 

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