Well certainly moving in the right direction. At what point would it be classed as an 'average' summer?

One way of doing that would be to take an average of all of the Manchester Indexes and then compare this year's value so far with that average. If we are above that average, Manchester is having a decent summer otherwise they are having a poor summer there and we can also define an average summer as being one where the Manchester Index value was less than a certain amount either above or below that average.

The official Met Office way of doing that is to go by some 30 year LTA and currently, this is the 1981-2010 Average when we are doing that for the likes of temperature or rainfall. Because of that, I have looked backed on Kev's posts both here on TWO and over at Netweather where he has listed all of the Manchester Indexes for each year. From that, I worked out that average Manchester Index for the 30 period between 1981 and 2010 inclusive is 216.07 to two decimal places.

If we then take that to the nearest whole number, this means that we can then unofficially (since this hasn't actually defined by the Met Office) define the 1981-2010 LTA for the Manchester Index as 216. Since this year's Manchester Index up to 9th July was 181, we can then say that the Manchester Index Anomaly at that point in time was -35 since the latest reported Manchester Index is 35 points below that 1981-2010 LTA which I have just defined.

Since that anomaly is negative, this means that the city of Manchester was experiencing a poor summer overall up until 9 July in terms of the Manchester Index. it is worth remembering though, that this is only valid for Manchester, but there is no reason why this exercise can't then be repeated for other towns and cities within the UK to determine whether or not, that particular location is experiencing a decent summer according that location's corresponding index.

 Well certainly moving in the right direction. At what point would it be classed as an 'average' summer?

I wonder if we could technically reach last year’s figure of 272, if August turned out to be a good one.  Bearing in mind it let the index down last year and we’re still only half way through summer.

Yes, it’s climbing!  

I wonder if we could technically reach last year’s figure of 272, if August turned out to be a good one.  Bearing in mind it let the index down last year and we’re still only half way through summer.

Last year's figure of 272 is 56 points above the 1981-2010 average which I have just defined in my last post here. This means that we can say that last year's Manchester Index Anomaly was +56. I suppose that it is technically possible to beat that this year but even though last August was fairly poor, that didn't prevent last summer from being a really decent summer overall.

The Manchester Index Anomaly which I have quoted shows that really well and although we may or may not technically be able to beat that this year, I reckon that this would probably be quite huge ask even if this was actually possible (although there's nothing to stop us from being optimistic on that front).

If I was in the Manchester area then for me, I would just be happy enough if this year's Manchester Temperature anomaly (as defined in my last post here) ended up being positive which will happen if this year's Manchester Index ends up being at or above 217.

This summer has got better over time as has been shown by the fact that the Manchester Index is going up, so there's no reason why this can't end up happening.

Yes, it’s climbing!  

I wonder if we could technically reach last year’s figure of 272, if August turned out to be a good one.  Bearing in mind it let the index down last year and we’re still only half way through summer.

We would need an index of 339 for the period 10/7/19 up to 31/8/19 to equal last year

This equates to no rain in that period, 12 hours of sun every day and an average maximum temperature of 24.5C

So yes it is technically possible but I wouldn't rush down to Ladbrokes to put a bet on

Here we were right in the middle of a yellow warning area for thunderstorms which was issued by the Met Office and yet, this has been yet another day where all of the "interesting" weather has happened elsewhere in the UK other than here whilst where I live, once again lives up to its usual reputation of being the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather.

This is shown by the fact that a number of other locations within the UK got some thunderstorms today, whilst we got absolutely nothing at all in that department which shows yet again that getting any kind of "interesting" weather in these parts virtually always seems to be too much to ask for.

It is true that a yellow warning means to be aware that the weather event in question could possibly happen, but the impacts v likelihood matrix which went with that warning showed that this particular event was actually unlikely to happen as it turned out. To me, I don't really see the point in issuing that warning in the first place under those circumstances because if the Met Office are going to go down that road, they would be as well to just give a yellow warning for every other type of weather as well on the sole basis that it is possible to get those other types of weather, even though this is unlikely to happen.

To me, issuing that yellow warning for this area under these circumstances has therefore been a complete and utter waste of time because to me, I don't really see the point in a yellow warning being awarded for anything unless that particular weather event in question is actually likely to happen. On the same token, it is at times like this that I wonder whether or not these folks at the Met Office who actually issue these warnings actually have any sort of clue as what they are actually doing when they issue these warnings.

Instead of the thunderstorms which were forecast for today, we actually had a warm and increasingly sunny day and in fact, today has been the warmest day of this month so far at all three of my local stations with only the very wet start to today (without any thunder or lightning) preventing today from being our best day of proper summer weather overall so far this year.

As someone who likes to see a decent summer, I will happily welcome that sudden unexpected burst of summer which we have seen during today but then, I went into today expecting thunderstorms (since that was what the warning was for) and because of that, I'm really disappointed that we didn't get those thunderstorms which were forecast especially since other places down south did get them (why is at as well, that the English always have to get just about everything when it comes to any sort of "interesting" weather).

Finally, I am going to be down in the Scottish Borders for a week starting from next Monday and until now, I was interested in what the model output was like for next week in terms of what the weather in that part of the world is likely to be like next week. After today's dismal performance by the Met Office in particular though in terms of today's weather, next week's model output isn't even worth looking at because at the end of the day, there is certainly no chance of them being able to get next week's weather right if they can't even get today's weather right.

And you wonder, why I often feel that any sort of model output is a complete waste of time at the best of times?

 

We would need an index of 339 for the period 10/7/19 up to 31/8/19 to equal last year

This equates to no rain in that period, 12 hours of sun every day and an average maximum temperature of 24.5C

So yes it is technically possible but I wouldn't rush down to Ladbrokes to put a bet on

 

The BBC forecast was looking just about ok here for the next couple of weeks but it's looking quite disappointing this morning. Lots of rain days. Today and tomorrow now looking wet. The last couple of days have been poor. Urgh

 

We would need an index of 339 for the period 10/7/19 up to 31/8/19 to equal last year

This equates to no rain in that period, 12 hours of sun every day and an average maximum temperature of 24.5C

So yes it is technically possible but I wouldn't rush down to Ladbrokes to put a bet on

 

I'd take that!!

 

We would need an index of 339 for the period 10/7/19 up to 31/8/19 to equal last year

This equates to no rain in that period, 12 hours of sun every day and an average maximum temperature of 24.5C

So yes it is technically possible but I wouldn't rush down to Ladbrokes to put a bet on

 

Technically speaking, it is possible to get 12 hours of sunshine per day in every day during the rest of this summer, although this is only possible up until around the Autumn Equinox.

It should also be noted that we are already into the time of the year when the days have started to get shorter once again. This will reduce the maximum amount of sunshine over time which is possible on any given day and thus, make it increasingly difficult to actually get 12 hours of sunshine on any given day.

That in turn means that the maximum possible Manchester Index for any given day is going down as a result which over time, will make it increasing difficult for those values for the Manchester Index to be achieved which are required for this summer to go down as a decent one overall.

Just 0.4mm of drizzle down here since 19th June and with temperatures having exceeded 20c everyday this month there are no complaints from me. 

Sunshine has been at a premium here this week, but still plenty of pleasant weather and no rain at all.

Today is one of those where it looks different to what it feels when you step out; it's breezy with a lot of large cumulus allowing only a few sunny spells, yet the temperature's in the mid-20s!

This is my 7th of days of the month to reach 24.0*C or more. Not bad going considering there's nothing special driving the weather at this time.

Especially with the complete absence of daytime rain so far .

So far this summer can be described as patchy at best here in the south of East Anglia. This past week being fairly typical. Eventually the sun cam out for a couple of days but despite promising forecasts earlier in the week the thick cloud has returned. It has been very, very cloudy here past two months. Summer to me is about sunshine more than temperature or dryness.

A moan....I came up to Edinburgh for a bright summer weekend of outdoor stuff. It's been drizzling for 17 hours and so gloomy. Don't know why the forecasters have such trouble these days. Think I'll stay indoors 😟

Maybe you need to have a word with johncs?

Roger

Here in the north of Edinburgh, I wouldn't necessarily say that we've had constant drizzle all the time just by looking outside, although I haven't yet actually been out in that. The rain radar map appears to just be showing that up as a few showers which seems to be quite a fair assessment of what I'm seeing. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that I wouldn't be experiencing constant drizzle here if I was actually out in it.

Just now, rainfall at Edinburgh Gogarbank is being recorded as a result of that, at a rate of 0.2 mm of rain per hour, but nothing is registering at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as I write with the last recorded rainfall there having occurred at 5am this morning according to weathercast.co.uk.

Having said that though, it wasn't that long ago since the models were predicting that high pressure would be dominating our weather throughout this weekend, and that it would dry all the time as a result. That clearly hasn't happened but then at some point down the line around a few days ago, the models then delayed the onset of that drier weather until tomorrow. This meant that whilst high pressure would already be starting to build in just now, we wouldn't now be getting any real benefit from that until tomorrow which now meant that there was always the risk that we could at the very least, get a few showers during today.

Furthermore, the current position of that ridge of high pressure was now such that it was always likely to be feeding in a breeze from in off the North Sea and so from that context, I don't think that the models have actually performed all that badly on that front as this meant that there was always that ongoing risk as a result, that it would be overcast here due to that easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea. However, I did expect there to have been a bit more in the way of sunshine or at the very least, a few brighter spells and I still feel confident that we will at least, get some brighter weather later on as that is what has always tended to happen here in the end, even though this isn't enough at the moment for this month to currently be running slightly duller than average.

EDIT:

I've just looked again at the actual data for Edinburgh Gogarbank and for Edinburgh Airport, and this shows that the wind is actually coming from the SW quarter, and not from in off the North Sea. That makes it more difficult to know why it has been so overcast here, unless this has happened by means of the possibility this could have been caused by an old and very weak weather front which has got entangled within this air mass and then got stuck over this part of the world.

EDIT:

I've just looked again at the actual data for Edinburgh Gogarbank and for Edinburgh Airport, and this shows that the wind is actually coming from the SW quarter, and not from in off the North Sea. That makes it more difficult to know why it has been so overcast here, unless this has happened by means of the possibility this could have been caused by an old and very weak weather front which has got entangled within this air mass and then got stuck over this part of the world.

 

There's a convergence zone in SE Scotland running into NE England, hence the cloud and some showers developing. XCWeather shows the opposing wind arrows nicely.

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
2019 181 (up to 13th July)
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194 

Anyone else noticed the oddity of last evening's sunset and afterglow?

Looked like smoke

Rays were evident in afterglow

Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
2019 181 (up to 13th July)
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194