All looking much as it has on the main models IMO - a generally cold theme with a reasonable chance of some milder interludes, more so for the south, and also a realistic chance of some even colder air at times from the east.
I'd happily side with this being a generally cold pattern, so rather than worrying too much if one cold shot fails, it'd just be a case of seeing how the next attempt goes. I don't think we're in one of those patterns where the LP track fundamentally alters the longer term pattern - short term it definitely could scupper a cold shot but long term I think things would revert back to a colder set up and it's then a case of more luck with the next attempt.
We do seem to be relying on LPs tracking over or near to the UK to drag the coldest air in, hence some of the runs and ens members bringing milder air in - small tweaks to the LP intensity and track having big short term impacts on the ground. Worth noting that just as a tweak one way can mean milder, a tweak the other can mean deep cold (at least for a while) as nicely demonstrated by this evenings ECM. At least with LP about there should be some precipitation about too, of one variety or another
Fun times if you like cold but with enough uncertainty to drag the mood down at times when the models back a slightly milder blip or outcome.
Originally Posted by: Hippydave