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Not many gfs mild members left at the surface now Steve see GW post
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0
Some interesting cold output but there are still wayyy too many westerly options still being presented across the NWP this evening to be confident of an outcome post 120 hours.
The Met Office update is encouraging but still does not discount the milder outcome that may occur.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
Easterly lining up
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
18z looking very promising easterly incoming .
Very positive BBC update as well.
A bit nippy with it
For those getting excited about the ECM you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
GFS, UKMO are not on board.
The model that doesn't predict severe cold tends to be right.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
GFS now is ………….for the time being
Looks like a very cold easterly incoming on the 18z
Its a cold un
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011718/gfs-1-168.png?18
Pontypool, 132m asl
Cold air heading in from the NE
O/T but my local council (in South Wales) have been busy refilling the grit bins on the streets today ...
-12c 850s by 192h
GFS 18z turning into a very cold run indeed!!
Guernsey
Aha!
Yes its FI, and yes it’s just a random op run, but now I’m officially interested.
Bone chillingly cold with convective snow and ice days.
Potential. :D
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
It appears the pub run has provided
Any bets on where it'll sit in the ens
Work: Tonbridge
You don't think sub zero daytime maxes are especially cold?
Originally Posted by: John p
Nice (if you like easterlies, but personally I despise them as they never deliver here).
Current conditions (personal WS)
Hang on, is the cold air off to Spain for a winter break - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011718/gfs-1-216.png?18
;)
that air will have been drastically moderated by the time it reaches us.
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
With respect, it won’t (not drastically anyway). It’s academic but maxima on that chart mid afternoon Fri widely around freezing.
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
228h here comes the Greenland high again 240h + could be crazy
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Indeed.
Was tempted to reply to that rather odd assertion as well.
Bit speculative but I guess if you got a more NE flow than E then you could drag some milder low level air in to the mix but given a cold enough source (18z anyone) all the sea will do is add some moisture and energy into the mix and mean some people would be having some fun, beefy and prolonged convective snow fall.
I'm going to guess the 18z picked out one of the recently occurring colder easterly solutions (genius me) and as per the last god knows how many GFS ens sets they'll be a mix of the sublime, the decent and the depressing, balance TBA.
http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim
Anyhoo, some sort of cold looks set to lock in for early Feb, although not yet certain.
🥶🥶🥶😱😱Blizzards for many here:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Edit: Scandy- Greenland high linkage occurs circa + 300 hrs