If anything the automated forecasts look better for the Vale of York than here. More milder air moving into the west. Also i am always highly sceptical of anything from the NW. Tends to break up . I reckon one area of heavier precipation moving down the eastern side of N England, some in the west and nothing in the middle...

That’s what one of the high res models showed.

---

Yeh that feature moving south seems to have more clout and to be movinf quicker than forecast. Temp is meant to be about 3*c... but is currently 0.2*c with DP -1.

This could develop.

Automated currently has me at -1c and it’s actually -4.6c.  It’s also now showing snow here in the early hours of morning. We’ll see!  

---

Just been out to the car, and it feels noticeably less cold than it did at 6.30pm

I reckon rain for here, perhaps something less depressing further east.

Looking at the radar, there's a dangler dropping into the mid-point of N Wales, but the main clump of PPN isn't making much progress and is still in southern Scotland.

---

Just been out to the car, and it feels noticeably less cold than it did at 6.30pm

I reckon rain for here, perhaps something less depressing further east.

Looking at the radar, there's a dangler dropping into the mid-point of N Wales, but the main clump of PPN isn't making much progress and is still in southern Scotland.

There’s a “clump” quite close by now Saint. Some quite bright echoes. You could catch the southern edge. 

Currently -2C/-3C here - any precipitation that makes it this far this side of midnight will be snow. 

 

---

Some light snow here now but could count the ‘snow grains’ outside. Usually the snow showers dissipate when travelling over Dumfriesshire so hoping a bit more holds together this time.

---

 

There’s a “clump” quite close by now Saint. Some quite bright echoes. You could catch the southern edge. 

Currently -2C/-3C here - any precipitation that makes it this far this side of midnight will be snow. 

 

 

Fraid not, it missed to my north. The next clump, however, shows much more potential!

---

 

 

Fraid not, it missed to my north. The next clump, however, shows much more potential!

I think the clump that has missed you should be over my house within about 20 mins. Hoping it stays as a yellow one and doesn’t downgrade to green.

Good luck with the next one. Beware of those dew points and milder upper air due later. Already reports of rain and sleet in the NW thread on the other side.

We are NOT normal 😂

---

 

I think the clump that has missed you should be over my house within about 20 mins. Hoping it stays as a yellow one and doesn’t downgrade to green.

Good luck with the next one. Beware of those dew points and milder upper air due later. Already reports of rain and sleet in the NW thread on the other side.

We are NOT normal 😂

 

Liverpool Airport is at 0c/-1c

Manchester Airport is at -2c/-2c

Given Liverpool Airport is right on the estuary, we're usually closer to the Manchester Airport numbers, so fingers crossed.

Good luck to you, too. Think even if we get a covering it'll be gone by morning. 

---

 

 

Liverpool Airport is at 0c/-1c

Manchester Airport is at -2c/-2c

Given Liverpool Airport is right on the estuary, we're usually closer to the Manchester Airport numbers, so fingers crossed.

Good luck to you, too. Think even if we get a covering it'll be gone by morning. 

Well it’s sleeting here. Fairly annoying when the temp is -2C  outside. If that’s not a sign I should give up, I don’t know what is! 

---

 

Well it’s sleeting here. Fairly annoying when the temp is -2C  outside. If that’s not a sign I should give up, I don’t know what is! 

At least it will settle.

Wonder what wierd grey deposits you will have by morning.

 

---

Time to dust off this thread again.

Lots of potential next week. Area for serious snowfall could be anyone in the UK. Though central and southern parts...from experience usually win out here..

---

Not getting particularly excited re Tuesday down here - a flick through some of the 12z output suggests either the LP misses us to the south or has that bit too much mild air entrenched and brings mostly rain with maybe a bit of back edge stuff.

Arpege for example has next to nothing other than rain. Icon shows rain for 5-6 hours before some snowfall although accumulation chart shows 2cm over the downs, which doesn't suggest anything too exciting.

GFS Op shows the low less developed and further south with maybe some sleet or snow fringing the south coast. GFSP has an active system with snow falling.

UKMO has an active system although no idea if it'd be wet or white.

 

I guess overall as it stands I'd not be surprised to see falling snow at some point if the system doesn't end up further south but any kind of decent accumulations seem unlikely although not entirely out of the question imo.

Bit of a forecasting nightmare tbh

Nearer term and looking good for the Scottish Highlands tonight - should be some significant falls there

---

Honestly i wouldnt take any of the output at face value at the moment. Id say whoever wakes up tuesday as the winner is likely to be so.


Therefor take it easy and be hopeful.

---

Not getting particularly excited re Tuesday down here - a flick through some of the 12z output suggests either the LP misses us to the south or has that bit too much mild air entrenched and brings mostly rain with maybe a bit of back edge stuff.

Arpege for example has next to nothing other than rain. Icon shows rain for 5-6 hours before some snowfall although accumulation chart shows 2cm over the downs, which doesn't suggest anything too exciting.

GFS Op shows the low less developed and further south with maybe some sleet or snow fringing the south coast. GFSP has an active system with snow falling.

UKMO has an active system although no idea if it'd be wet or white.

 

I guess overall as it stands I'd not be surprised to see falling snow at some point if the system doesn't end up further south but any kind of decent accumulations seem unlikely although not entirely out of the question imo.

Bit of a forecasting nightmare tbh

Nearer term and looking good for the Scottish Highlands tonight - should be some significant falls there

Yes I suspect some inland and Highlands areas could get a significant fall overnight. I’m just hoping that when the cold air eventually arrives here that it won’t be bone dry, but I have very low expectations.

Believe it or not I think Tuesday is still too far off to have any confidence in any one particular scenario.

---

Can see the progress of the cold air on the traffic Scotland cams. Been snowing at daviot just below Inverness since late afternoon and has been so at slochd further south for last few hours. Not visible on any cams further south last time I checked.

---

The wave/low feature Tues pm the focus for C and S parts is the cause of significant uncertainty. Likely a RACY candidate, deepening at over 1mb/hr from Mon am to Tues pm. It’s all about track this one as the air in place is really marginal with regards rain/snow ppn type. And with all the discussion about will it or wont it produce snow, a shift North brings with it the risk of damaging winds on it’s southern flank.
Fascinating 48hrs of forecasting for all concerned.

---

From an IMBY perspective this kind of set up has the potential to be fantastic. We have the height to help with some of the marginal side of things and that height also helps with increased wind strength and orographic forcing.
There's nothing like a full gale, heavy wet snow and temps just below freezing to make a place look like the day after tomorrow!
There was a super picture s couple of years back from a member who lived in Princetown on Dartmoor of just that kind of set up.

---

Here is the Euro4 take on the snowfall over the next 48 hours (or until midnight tomorrow anyway). Tuesday’s low pressure is not quite in its short term range. It will be interesting to see how accurate this is as anything that settles today or tomorrow is likely to hang around for a few days at least.

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/27/basis00/ukuk/weas/19012900_2_2700.gif

---

06 runs if anything ease away from a significant event Tues pm. GFS 0.25 ppn has only back edge snow on the occlusion - flow ahead of it is onshore and for the majority of low altitude south it’s rain/sleet only.

---

06 runs if anything ease away from a significant event Tues pm. GFS 0.25 ppn has only back edge snow on the occlusion - flow ahead of it is onshore and for the majority of low altitude south it’s rain/sleet only.

Yes looks like a rain to snow event, altitude likely to be important with Brian probably in the best place.

 

---