The intensity does seem to be diminishing rapidly as the band moves northwards.

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As said earlier the pivoting seems to have started earlier which is bad news for those on the eastern side of the area affected. As it turns it now looks like breaking up over Eastern Kent and South Essex, East London and moving more  NW. i would have thought it is still positioning itself well for Surrey, Sussex and West Kent. Certainly not certain about this though, just an observation watching the radar this evening.

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As said earlier the pivoting seems to have started earlier which is bad news for those on the eastern side of the area affected. As it turns it now looks like breaking up over Eastern Kent and South Essex, East London and moving more  NW. i would have thought it is still positioning itself well for Surrey, Sussex and West Kent. Certainly not certain about this though, just an observation watching the radar this evening.

Looks pretty good for these parts to me

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Latest from the Met Office posted 2 mins ago, not good news..

Snow, initially moving north & east across parts of southern & southwestern England, the Midlands & Wales, will stall & tend to fragment. Wintry showers will continue in northern & eastern areas.

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Meto auto updated and heavy snow from midnight for 6 hours and then light snow until 4pm.

Massive upgrade for the Chilterns - sceptical!

Met, Beeb & others offering hous of heavy here but actually, after a pathetic 10 minutes blowy shower, nothing's happened. Now, I'd like to say the little low risked at on the Beeb forecast has formed and messed up the small detail, or the timing is just a bit out, but I, not a frequent cynic, am starting to wonder if actually, they've got a clue.

 

Here's a clue: skies are clearing. 

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Indeed it is starting to look like a bit of a failure not just for the western amber area but for anyone to see any accumulations from this. It's fizzling out rapidly.

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Wish I lived in Chicago.

Now that is real weather!

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Indeed it is starting to look like a bit of a failure not just for the western amber area but for anyone to see any accumulations from this. It's fizzling out rapidly.

 

yes looking like a failed model and reality forecast, a damp night in my part of Hampshire after an hour of wet sleet and snow. Roads wet otherwise a non event...still due to the Mass panic sent out by the met office to so many organisations , the M3 and M27 were quiet?...I wonder how much business was lost! 

Agree. And with schools closed tomorrow from what looks at the moment out of the window little more than a decent hoar frost.

I suppose higher up things will be different but but it's a very weak squib here at 60m above sea level.

Maybe things will go bang in the night with a lightning show as they mention thundery showers coming up from the Biscay area.

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Funny thing is, if they forecast an end to the cold spell with mild wind and rain moving in from the west, that would be a dead cert and it would be wet, damp and mild for everyone. If they predict snow, it is usually less than 50/50 that it will actually arrive, however certain the models and forecasters might be in advance.

Sod's Law I suppose.

Anyway, I think the best model for this non-event has been Arpege which for several days now has given little snow comfort to UK model watchers.

Still, it has been fun for parts of the West Country which very rarely sees any of the white stuff, so good for that locale I suppose.

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Looks pretty good for these parts to me

Hmmm. You could be right. It is very difficult to say. If that clump that has intensified over Normandy and now the Channel keeps moving north you could be in prime place but if it stalls and loses energy......... 

Who knows!

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Well this isn’t quite working out as planned is it? It’s actually quite painful watching a forecast unravel before your eyes and it’s clear the Amber warning was for most a precaution too far (as it stands). I’m going to have to explain to my subscribers who left work early or travelled to Gatwick for a hotel instead of going up in the morning what went wrong. Glad I don’t earn a living from it.
Still time for changes but at the moment it looks positively underwhelming for most of the south.

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These showers up in the north east look very isolated and hit and miss... can't even see a cm falling at the rate

 

Hmmm. You could be right. It is very difficult to say. If that clump that has intensified over Normandy and now the Channel keeps moving north you could be in prime place but if it stalls and loses energy......... 

Who knows!

 

i think with wind turning off the channel it is likely to be rain and possibly sleet in any heavy bursts...I think you can pack the sledge away for this event and don the waterproofs....in fact you can do that for the winter that promised but never delivered ....apart from lots of incorrect news headlines and egg on the face for many  

Moved thread

I am feeling realy disillusioned at the moment. We're not talking T+384 or 240 here, or even T+120. This isn't even T +48. On Thursday afternoon MetO, GFS, ECM, Beeb and probably all the other agencies paid out of someone else's pocket were forecasting several hours of heavy snow for Thursday evening. Now I'll shrink away ashamed if there is something simply adjusted here- a slight delay, say- but TBH the cloud is thinning beautifully outside after our 10minute snowjest and I'd like to know if T+6 really is that excusable.

I have a fircone called Freddie.

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I’ve got to love the Met O app!  It says ‘yellow warning of snow and ice nearby’!    I’ve never seen it say that before! Perhaps the Met O realise that every snowfall this winter has been nearby but never actually here!  

 

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Snow just come on much heavier here, forget the models and radar, its a pure nowcast look at the lampost...

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Moved thread

I am feeling realy disillusioned at the moment. We're not talking T+384 or 240 here, or even T+120. This isn't even T +48. On Thursday afternoon MetO, GFS, ECM, Beeb and probably all the other agencies paid out of someone else's pocket were forecasting several hours of heavy snow for Thursday evening. Now I'll shrink away ashamed if there is something simply adjusted here- a slight delay, say- but TBH the cloud is thinning beautifully outside after our 10minute snowjest and I'd like to know if T+6 really is that excusable.

 

The main band is still to your south, according to the radar. You are currently in the gap between the two.

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I’ve got to love the Met O app!  It says ‘yellow warning of snow and ice nearby’!    I’ve never seen it say that before! Perhaps the Met O realise that every snowfall this winter has been nearby but never actually here!  

 

Nice one Caz, it has been the nearly winter all the way. We nearly had a winter, but it never quite arrived.

Brian put it very well in the model thread a few days ago - this has been the best virtual winter ever.

As for January, I think it should be abolished in the UK, since it never delivers anything of note these days. I am upgrading March as the new January. This January has been a nothing month in my area - neither mild nor cold, neither wet nor dry - it is as though it did not exist at all. And not a flake of snow (so far - there is always the chance of at least one flake before midnight).

 

 

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