That is certainly the case and on that note, it would be interesting to see what fireworks might occur if the likes of Richard from Aberdeen was ever to enter this competitions, given his famous (or infamous depending on your own point of view about that) rants which I often find to be a joy to read, even though these aren't usually confined to the moaning threads.

Met Office Hadley          5.2c.      Anomaly      1.7c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       4.95c     Anomaly       0.80c

Netweather                    5.41c     Anomaly       1.22c

Canvey Island                5.7c       Anomaly       0.05c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.4c       Anomaly       0.69c

Peasedown St John         6.8c       Anomaly       1.6c.

Mean of my 10     5.7c  Anomaly    -0.01c.     

January could be one of  those strange winter months where the drier, calmer periods under high pressure were milder than the wetter more unsettled periods under lower pressures.

It could be a month of two halves as well.

A milder, dry, largely anticyclonic first half followed by a colder more unsettled second half. 

Met Office Hadley        5.1c.       Anomaly     1.6c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                     4.80c      Anomaly     0.65c

Netweather                  5.27c      Anomaly     1.08c

Hexam                         4.6c       Anomaly      -0.32c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.3c      Anomaly      0.8c

Peasedown St John       6.7c      Anomaly    1.5c

Treviskey Redruth        6.9c  Anomaly   0.98c

mean of my 10     5.55c.   Anomaly   -0.16c.     

Met Office Hadley           5.0c.     Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       4.73c     Anomaly      0.57c

Netweather                    5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.2c       Anomaly      0.7c

Peasedown St John         6.6c       Anomaly      1.4c

Treviskey                       6.8c        Anomaly     -1.08c

Mean Of My 10 watched stations    5.5c.  Anomaly   -0.19c.     

Met Office Hadley         4.9c.     Anomaly    1.3c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      4.55c    Anomaly    0.40c

Netweather                   5.08c    Anomaly    0.85c

Bordon                         4.2c      Anomaly     -3.64c

Hexam                         4.3c      Anomaly     0.02c

Forest Town Mansfield    4.9c     Anomaly      -0.3c

Peasedown St John        6.5c    Anomaly      1.3c

Treviskey Redruth          7.1c    Anomaly      -1.7c.

Mean of my 10 stations    5.21c.  Anomaly   -0.47c.       

A finishing number after corrections of 4.2 perhaps? Give or take 0.2c?

Cue GW with his stats and projections!   

Well at the moment I am thinking the CET will finish just above 4C. Current projection is 4.11C.

At present my CET estimate is 0.45C below Hadley. Up to yesterday Hadley was 4.88C. My estimate was 4.43C.

Today the CET came in at exactly 0.0C so the coldest day of the winter so far. 

This means the CET is now standing at 4.24C.

The CET continues to fall tomorrow but then lifts up as we go through the weekend before falling back slightly in the final few days of the month. 

The above estimate is probably going to be a bit too high so my best guess at the moment is that the CET will finish very close to 4C. So only a fraction below average.

If we split the month in half we see the following:

1-16 Jan 5.26C (+0.87C)

17-31 Jan 2.89C (-1.60C)

So a big difference there. It does look like a winter of two halves. First half very mild and second half probably very cold, especially if northern blocking sets up in February.

 Thanks GW!  I’d never argue with your projections.  I know they’re based on output and subject to change but they’re always totally unbiased!  

It seems that January is looking like a month of two halves. 

As for bias, it seems to me that bias is reserved for the MO thread, whereas this thread is just about predictions and is thankfully relatively bias free.

Met Office Hadley            4.7c.    Anomaly  1.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                         4.38c   Anomaly  0.22c

Netweather                      4.87c   Anomaly  0.68c

Bordon                            4.0c     Anomaly  -3.84c

Canvey Island                  5.0c     Anomaly  -0.65c

Cheadle Hulme                 4.8c    Anomaly   -0.85c

Clevedon Weather             6.1c     Anomaly   -0.48c

Darwen                            5.1c     Anomaly   -0.16c

Hexam                             4.2c     Anomaly   -0.08c

Mount Sorrel                    4.6c     Anomaly    -0.11c

Forest Town Mansfield       4.9c     Anomaly    -0.3c

Peasedown St John           6.3c     Anomaly    1.1c

Treviskey                         7.2c     Anomaly    -0.68c    

Mean of my 10 watched stations  5.22c Anomaly -0.49c.   6 Year Average.

I know one thing - I'm going for a much lower figure for February.

Met Office Hadley        4.7c.      Anomaly      1.0c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     4.37c     Anomaly      0.22c

Netweather                  4.76c     Anomaly      0.57c

Cheadle Hulme             4.7c       Anomaly      -0.63c

Darwen                        5.2c      Anomaly       -0.06c

Mount Sorrel                4.7c      Anomaly        -0.01c

Mean of my 10 stations  5.23c   Anomaly    -0.48c.         

Met office Hadley       4.8c     Anomaly   1.1c. Provisional to 35th.

Metcheck           4.53c.   Anomaly   0.38c.

Netweather        4.89c.   Anomaly   0.7c.

Peasedown St John 6.5c. Anomaly  1.3c.

 Mean of 10 5.41c Anomaly -0.30. 

I thought this month was dragging by!

Met Office Hadley        4.9c.     Anomaly     1.2c.      Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                     4.61c    Anomaly     0.45c

Netweather                  5.01c    Anomaly     0.82c

Bordon                         4.3c     Anomaly     -3.54c

Canvey Island               5.3c     Anomaly     -0.35c

Cheadle Hulme              5.0c    Anomaly      -0.33c

Clevedon Weather          6.3c    Anomaly      -0.18c

Daewen                        5.3c    Anomaly       0.04c

Hexam                         4.3c    Anomaly       0.02c

Mount Sorrel                 4.9c.   Anomaly       0.19c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.1c    Anomaly       0.6c

Peasedown St John        6.6c    Anomaly       1.4c

Treviskey Redruth          7.4c    Anomaly       -0.48c

Mean of my 10             5.45c.   Anomaly      -0.26c.        

I wonder how much discrepancy there is now between  the provisional Hadley figures and GW's calculations?

The provisional seems weirdly high to me, as I've got a local mean of 4.6*C to 26th and it's not like we've had cold focused across southern areas lately. If anything I've noticed it being colder north of me in the usual fashion!

The colder weather this coming week may knock near half a degree Celsius off the CET.

My calculation is currently at 4.40C so a difference of 0.50C

Yes I agree SC!  GW’s figures also show that to be the case and he’s never far of the mark.  I think it’s odd that Hadley always adjusts at month end.  I know there’s an explanation but you’d think they’d want to be more accurate and employ GW to apply his calculations!  Although I’m glad we’ve got him!  

Met Office Hadley        4.9c.     Anomaly      1.1c. Provisional to 27th.

MetCheck                    4.56c.   Anomaly      0.40c

Netweather                 5.01c    Anomaly      0.82c

Bordon                        4.2c     Anomaly      -3.64c

Hexam                         4.2c    Anomaly      -0.08c

Forest Town Mansfield   4.9c    Anomaly       0.4c

Peasedown St John      6.5.     Anomaly       1.3c

Treviskey Redruth       7.3c     Anomaly        -0.58c.

Mean of my 10           5-04c.  Anomaly       -0.67c.