GFSP 12Z is only out to 234hrs so far. It is less interesting than the 6Z but I wouldn't call it "flat", just a UK high hanging on so far.

It’s out to 360hr on WZ. Here it is at 348hr http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_348_1.png 

Although a long way out, if you look at the 300 hour, there is 5 very cold, 5 cold, 4 just below freezing, 1 at 0c,  6 just above freezing, nil mild

So looking at 75% not above zero, not really a blip, more a highly likely outcome 

Made the mistake of not waiting til the run finished yes another decent end from the Para. good consistency 

Flat was the wrong choice of word its just not as spectacular as the 6z which was the best run of the winter.

Not terrible but slightly underwhelming. 

ECM similar to the GFS control with a decent northerly day 7.

yes a rather boring spell into next week now nailed, quite a few options on the table thereafter. Cloud amounts look to be quite large so there won’t be much in the way of frost about 

[quote=Ally Pally Snowman;1067350]

Not terrible but slightly underwhelming. 

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Control dips off in a week's time....along with op.....in my humble option I think I've got the thoughts we'll see some dramatic output from this in a couple of days....there now I've said it the odds will decrease...hopefully not.....time will tell until we firm up what s happening......as a note I think last Febs SSW started showing on model output around 7th Feb prior...please correct if I'm wrong....disclaimers apply though....

ECM 192, Double Omega, lol. Joint the dots and it would say MMMMM

just a gentle Easterly drift in the south with ice days in the midlands under fog

ECM at 240!!

Well another run and another Ecm solution its as clear as mud at the minute.  At least that run was cold 

The MO isn’t much help with this month’s CET predictions and the competition closes tonight. Don’t forget to get yours in before midnight.  Link in my signature!  

Hence my MMMM rather than MMMM! 

I think model watching should be focusing on the T+144 to T+192 at the moment anyway - there's enough volatility there to suggest a short term flip is quite possible, be it cold or mild.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif 

One things for certain, this does not have the hallmarks of a notable yet alone memorable cold spell in the making.

Ensemble says no

Why does it say "No" and to what does it say "No" to? We all live to learn on here, genuinely interested to learn from your expertise?

Fair question; some of the ECM obviously says yes or the spread wouldn't be that broad.

And given it's an SD spread, it's in no way indicative of the full ensemble set. But I'm sure Gavin will post to back up his assumption on that...

I know the two are related, but it is showing the standard deviation rather than the spread. Anything outside of the blue shading would be discounted normally and not suggested as the solution by something like Decider.

Given the inter-run inconsistency and the spread (below) the op run in isolation isn’t very informative

1. Radically different to previous runs

2. Cold enough to produce some snow (albeit slight)

3. Genuinely feels like the charts have been influenced / jolted out of a pattern that weve been stuck in for what feels like weeks now. Ie wrong side of a block.

Lets see where this goes. But i genuinely feel a smidge more hopeful tonight. This certainly isnt a solution... or the step next to... but you can feel winds of change about the charts tonight

Roll on tomorrow.