It's a similar scenario here too Doc, we seem to miss out a little in a fairly slack N/Ely flow, perhaps SST's over the last decade are to blame as the moderation this close to the North Sea always impacts on the precipitation type without elevation. 

I do think we will see a pretty good northerly before the month end though and for here that could be our best chance of lying snow. Certainly fascinating model watching over the next 48 hrs

Much better GFS 6z. Could be some snow around next week?

Wow, upgrade on GFS too, could this be what we have been waiting to see

Definitely an upgrade the GFS op 00z @ around 180 sinks the high pressure TO the south and LOW pressure flattens it and it's a toppler compared with the 06z @ that time builds HP to our north and north east over Scandi! Looks like any unsettled spell will be brief with more chance of colder weather by mid month!

00z

Latest 06z

Finishes with HP with -5s quite widely. Should that translate to clear skies, we could be looking at widespread severe frosts maybe minus double digits

However by the end -20s have flooded into Scandinavia and it looks ripe for a second bite at the cherry.

Worth looking at this 10hpa graphic - this is now, not a forecast:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.62,87.41,216

Split of the PV is self evident as is the reversal of winds aloft.

Actually good summary that . Definitely an upgrade too and showing more cold in line with what the Met Office were saying around Mid month and have been for weeks. No return to anything zonal and or mild either! Hope these upgrades continue as it has been a really dire season of model watching so far and at long last it looks like the models are starting to pick up on this SSW. Will be keen to see what the 20 other GFS ensembles show on the 06z run.

Longer term out in FI ,cold members of  GEFS 06h just have a slight majority but nothing that is consistent enough to flag up the change that METO expect.

However the shorter term as Steve has posted looks more promising.

The shift in the ensembles is quite large from yesterday's 12Z:

to today's 6Z:

The mean now stays below zero for the whole run from the 8th.

Definitely the coldest set IMBY too with at least half a dozen runs staying below -5 850hPA for a number of days!

Just been browsing through FI ensembles which go to 19th Jan:

Been a long wait (all December at into Jan) to see these sort of blocked charts!

Some of the coldest ones -14 c @ 850hpa:

p4 (-8c @ 850hpa)

P5 (-13c @ 850 hpa) - Perhaps the coldest ensemble member? - Plus heavy snow to the south of UK WITH gale force easterly winds?

P8: (-7c @ 850 hpa)

P9: (-7 to -8c @ 850hpa)

P10: (-7 TO -8C @ 850hpa)

P13: (-5 TO -6C @ 850hpa)

P15 (-10C @ 850hpa approaching N Scotland & ridge builds over Greenland)

 P16: (-10c @850hpa - this time covering the majority of the UK)

P17 SHOWS A Potential blizzard scenario as the LP moves into the cold block: (-5 to -7c uppers).

P18: (-5 to -7c @ 850hpa)

p20: far south and east shows -10c @ 850hpa). - That azores HP doesn't help though!

I wrote underwhelming for yesterday's 12z set this is much better shows how things can change very quickly snow rows upto 51!

Great to see charts showing something much more akin to winter than what we have seen these last few weeks.
The gph charts at 10mb offer a mouth watering insight to what may well lie ahead with hopefully next weeks cold being just a taster of what is potentially around the corner. I wouldn't rule anything out be it an extended version of Feb 91, Jan 87 or end of Feb 18.

NCEP have just notified of possible data distribution issues, so GFS / GEFS may (or may not) be late this afternoon.

I do wonder whether the government shutdown Stateside is having an effect too.

The GEFS for various locations around the UK gave similarly decent overall prospects for cold & snow. Obviously some level of regional variation in different runs, but it wasn't slanted toward favouring one particular area.

GFS 12z looks to be downloading ok on TWO and Meteo, WZ appears to be having issues. Link for TWO is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

Edit t+60 @ 15:46.