The further out you go, the more random noise starts to come into play, with the result that beyond 8-10 days out the ensemble mean almost always tends to start to revert towards the 30-year mean. So I wouldn't read too much into that.

The ecm de Bilt Op clearly wants to dive but then looks lost as majority members refuse to dip:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Quite messy to be fair and probably an early symptom of SSW

Iv'e thought for several weeks we might be constantly chasing the end of the rainbow dream , I still think that is the case, I really cant see January being anything special. 

For all the eye candy on offer from the ICON and GFS I still think this high will be a thorn in our side rather than the catalyst for something special. Lots of talk on potential (hate that word ) going forward so I’ll remain neutral until we see where the remaining lobes of the PV set up shop down the line.

This thread was in danger of morphing into the 'winter moaning' one.

I think it's worth remembering that the reliable timeframe is 5-6 days. Out to the middle of next week the charts offer the near-certainty of a cold spell. Duration and intensity remain uncertain.

ECM ensemble mean has high pressure to our west and high pressure over the Pole, with good agreement across the ensemble suite.

T+144

I guess the only thing which is missing then, would have been a typical richardabdn rant.

Not really just an opinion and just because its against peoples thoughts it doesn't mean its negative,...………..does it.

More importantly we need the Met on board 

All the time our resident high pressure has remained in situ since Christmas Eve its worth noting that there have been some notable arctic plunges further east across western Russia and Eastern Europe.

The first occurred around 24th December, then 2nd January and the latest one is progged circa 10th January.

Each arctic incursion is getting closer with each one asserting a little more influence each time.

Next week's grazer may be close enough to start whitening the higher ground of the NE..

Assuming the pattern continues and assuming the synoptics continue to retrogress westwards each time it will be interesting to keep an eye on developments around the 17th January.

Neither still extend to the timescale where the real cold had been forecast and modelled. Having said that both, like the GFS, are increasingly interesting in the relative short term.

In the most up to date data the 18z GFS op run has t850s as low as -10°C on Tuesday night from the north. A taste of whatsto come later?

I hope it changes ASAP but it seems a long wait currently , Gavs latest forecast looks like a hit and miss month with nothing of prolonged cold , he is thinking it 'could' be Feb when we get proper blocking 

I’m sure someone could start a media discussion or moaning thread?

Meanwhile in model output...

Anticyclonic, possibly wintry, then anticyclonic then...?

How can it possibly be a moaning comment just because a comment in a  post is saying no prolonged cold spell is on show ??

As you know I post what I see and its exactly what Im saying , I cant see anything prolonged.

This isn't a " lets all post it will be cold thread" ……………...or is it 

I'm one of the biggest cold hunters here BUT until you know who get on board and something consistently shows in the MO I stand by my comment of the wait until Feb looks like continuing ( as per Gavs latest video )

Just to show the 12z ENS from GFS a drop in temps for a few days before a rise again - so much uncertainty - but the above shows no prolonged cold 

Settled and chilly from GFS - PPN definitely in short supply 

I think all we can say is that all the models are all over the place at the moment . There is a chance of significant cold in the next 2 or 3 weeks but also a chance of no cold at all and everything in between . 

I wouldn't disagree with that mate but in my opinion ( well you know it ) 

One thing is for sure If I cant have snow then cold and dry will do and that looks the player for the next 7-10 days at least 

If only we can get a HP to move NWards 

The persistent signal is very strong for midmonth and continued on the latest GFS op run. In a couple of days it will be in the ECM op run range.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_288_1.png

Impressive consistency from the GFS even if it turns out to be wrong!