I don't know what to think really the models are genuinely in a state of flux impossible for anyone Pro or enthusiastic amateur to know what will happen. Makes it interesting at least. 

GFS 18z looks tasty!

Like the majority of GFS/P output for midmonth for the past 4 days. 

Have to say after so much promise at the start of the winter and background chat etc its been flat, just goes to show, the weather does its own thing , in saying that we really don't know what will happen further down the line...……...frustration continues 

Quite a few of the ensemble members on the 18z op run back the winds around to the east and even bring that HP north to Scandinavia on Thursday (week today). - If this materialises, then the far south and south east maybe at risk from seeing some snow showers/wintry showers. I am surprised the weather for week ahead hasn't picked up on this yet.

I wouldn't. I'm generally with Gooner to the extent that there is good agreement for a few days cold snap next week, followed by a less certain degree of milder weather for a short time, THEN little agreement as is always the case at that far out. 

Really good post this. It’s easy to get blinded by what’s currently being shown against what’s wanted by some. Same way GFS is slated by some until it comes up with a cold solution and then it’s the form horse, lol. 

Still plenty of reasons for snow fans to be cautiously optimistic given we are only just starting to touch the edges of what would be deemed the timescales when effects at ground level might be felt after this SSW. Even for snow deserts like some areas of the far NE. I expect to see some snow this winter here, as per virtually every year. 

Looks like the first incursion is going to be a relative non-event with most of the models positioning the high slightly more towards the centre / south-west of the UK meaning that any real cold will glance the east coast before heading off into Europe.  GFS 00Z(P) is typical of this but the ensemble suite looks pretty split on the outcome.  This of course is likely to influence the positioning of subsequent incursions and, once again, favour areas to our south-east!

In the shorter term anticyclonic with a cooler blip early next week still seemsthe form horse.

First up, just because Gav's video says something doesn't mean it'll happen.

Secondly, there are four weeks left of January. It's fair to say that there's currently no sign of any prolonged cold in the foreseeable future, but that's only 10 days to a fortnight... and even that's fraught with difficulties, just look how the potential glancing cold shot in the SE popped up a couple of days ago.

Or, to put it another way, I don't think anyone - not you, not Gav, not even the Met Office, can predict with any accuracy what the weather will be doing in 3 weeks' time, let alone in just under a month.

If you'd got rid of the bit in bold, incidentally, I'd have agreed with you.

Indeed, the effects of the SSW are still as yet unknown. Last night's 12z ECM showed the reversal at 60N/10hPa continuing out to its T+240 - which would mean from the afternoon of the 1st to the afternoon of the 13th at the least.

Talking of the ECM, after several runs showing not much change in the post-10-day 850s, there's now a marked decline in the average from the 13th to the 16th. As yet fewer than 10% of the runs show -10C 850s or less down here (other locations are available!), but I'm keeping an eye on it.

The 46-day ECM charts continue to show a strong anomaly pattern suggestive of further cold outbreaks in weeks 3 and 4:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91115-the-hunt-for-cold-continues-020119/?do=findComment&comment=3952357

Of course, week 3 from that run is the 24th. For once we've got a great deal of interest and we've got plenty of time left for it to happen - it's not like the "dying gasp of winter" scenario last year.

Flirtation with the -10 but nothing prolonged currently , certainly not as mild as we have recently experienced 

Morning all 

I seriously admire some of the optimism here. Keep it up chaps.

The realistic timeframe based on current output is as follows:

The settled theme continues. Hopefully I won't get shouted down again by posting these. 

T168 GFS (parallel)

ECM 168

GEM 168

UKMO 144

Snow rows upto 64! most of the winter for London.