+252 shows HP weakening over azores (finally) and building over Greenland this time is 1055mb's: - This could turn very cold for a time mid month looking at this sort of set up! Fingers crossed for more strengthening of this HP over Greenland and maybe joining that HP over n. pole and push the cold air out of pole into the mid latitudes and places like NW Europe! 

Whatever - but it looks likely now that yet another UK January will slip by with nothing more meaningful than a few frosts.

Better than relentless zonal wind and rain I guess, but the mid-latitude High which is superglued in our vicinity, does not provide for much winter cheer or excitement. Had hoped to take my grandchildren sledging at some point in the coming weeks - might be able to do that in April with any luck.

P.S. no point looking at FI charts at t+252 or whatever, when the NWP has had problems resolving t+120 for days on end.

 Where did that come from?

15th pressure now 1065mb's over Greenland:

No point thinking about it, unless such charts show up in high res at t+144 and less.

FI charts are just that - not credible.

Could you pick some lottery numbers for me Doc? 

Less a pizza slice than a middle finger

06z ends messy - but at least it builds the block a long stronger over Greenland between 14th and 17th for a very potent northerly.

Also at FI on the 06z run - I am keeping a close eye on that HP to the north over north western Russia and Svalbard, and a weak ridge building over Greenland once again - that was how it started off when which gave us the beast from the east back during the end of FEB:- I remember the block originated from Svalbard and NW Russia and then retrogressed south westwards over Scandinavia once heights started to rise over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean got quieter.

Now I look forward to seeing what the ensembles show:

Well a stopped clock is right twice a day so someone will claim to have been right sooner or later!

Another potent but transient northerly - but this one packs a punch. Sub-510 dam air from a northerly is quite rare (in recent decades).

Careful. As you know anomaly charts have caused confusion in years gone by. 

Can't complain:

I can...its a transient northerly in 13 days time ! 

Interesting reading this morning, some very sensible fact based comments and some very wishful thinking comments.  Many excellent posters who contribute sound comment based on the facts of what is being shown with a little license to interpret effect.  Overall the trend seems to be looking good for cold/snow lovers, but its the detail that eludes us right now, and that is how it is and always will be.

four days ago two weeks ahead were completely different to that same period now, four days ago today is exactly what was being forecast as is the weekend, beyond that it is just starting to take a shape that promise a point of certainty.

The SSW, currently doing its magic and holding steady the reversal for at least another 10 days, JC (and I do believe this bloke probably knows what he is talking about) is suggesting that due to other mitigating factors to complex and detailed to list here will likely impact Western Europe/UK around the 24th Jan.

The first effects are starting to appear soon after January 10th where ensemble forecasts from both global models ECMWF and GFS are in quite good agreement on a persisting extensive upper ridge / high pressure system over the northern Atlantic and the Arctic region. To the east and south, troughs will be meridionally pushed into Europe and result in much colder weather than average for a large part of our continent.

I did read somewhere on here over the last few days that the effects of an SSW are factored into models prior to and during the SSW. GEFS has been simulating a more classic   response by creating a high over the Artic region and bringing a colder airmass into Europe.  BTW the current cold outbreak in Eastern Europe/turkey has nothing to do with it.

Not every stratospheric warming event is the same, and each case has its own specific development and integration into the troposphere.  apparently, the best way to monitor the SSW impact is with ensemble forecasts.

So all looking good for cold /snow in the midterm and possibly beyond.

They're only anomaly charts, but those are quite strong anomalies, so suggest a decent chance of actual blocking, surely?

Think you missed my historic point, but don't worry. 

NEW thread on the way at 11:45.