The Weather Outlook

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ChrisJG
05 July 2018 21:46:20

Been watching Haweswater drop over the last couple of months and now Mardale is coming into view with the old stone walls appearing and soon should see an appearance of the old bridge. I’ll be cycling there this weekend to see the progress. Never known it so dry in Cumbria!

https://www.riverlevels.uk/haweswater-reservoir-bampton#.Wz6RGYrTWf0 


Home - near Penrith 150m ASL

Work - North/Central Cumbria

Stormchaser
05 July 2018 22:11:27
The locally infamous Puddleslosh Lane has finally lost the last of its extraordinarily resilient puddles, and the larger of the trees lining it have started dropping their leaves in abundance. A strange thing to see at this time of year, especially with the leaves turned a near-autumnal (but more deathly-looking) brown as they dried out in the sun.

Streamflow has been holding up well but the past few days have started to show a bit of a drop with extra stones and shingle becoming exposed compared to the usual midsummer situation.

Walking through all this and being faced from time to time with flurries of dust kicked up by either the breeze or passing vehicles, it no longer feels quite like the English country I’ve come to be familiar with.


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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

johncs2016
05 July 2018 23:51:05
Here in Edinburgh, there has still been no recorded rainfall at either Edinburgh Gogarbank or the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during this month so far as at midnight, going into Friday 6 July 2018.

The last recorded rainfall at Edinburgh Gogarbank was on 20 June 2018. The last recorded rainfall at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh was on 21 June 2018 with that amounting to just 0.2 mm of rain. This means that we have now gone more than 15 days in a row with no more than 0.2 mm of rain being recorded on any of those days. That in turn means that we have now entered an official absolute drought at both of those stations.

For here in Edinburgh, this is now our second official absolute drought of the year which follows on from the one which ended on 1 June 2018. Meanwhile, the model output continues to show absolutely no signs of any rain in this part of the world during the foreseeable future which means that this could end up being quite a long drought ahead.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2018 07:11:32
The soil moisture drought has really ramped up in the last week, particularly in the North and West.

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1111 

Click on soil moisture on the left, then anomaly.

Eastern France starting to dry up too, but this was before the deluge of the last 2 days.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
speckledjim
06 July 2018 07:25:19

 

What plants, and how hard is your water? It could be more to do with the pH (hard water being alkaline, rainwater being acidic) - some plants hate too much lime.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

I've never had a problem with my tap water, everything grows very well


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

KevBrads1
07 July 2018 06:55:13

My feeling is the first half of summer 2018 is going to surpass the first half of summer 1976 for England and Wales in terms of dryness

June 2018 is already drier than June 1976 and latest Hadley figures says about 1mm up to 4th of July which even when combined with June 2018's figure is still less than what was recorded during June 1976.

1976 rain total trackometer starting from July with June's total

1. 18.7

2. 18.7

3. 19.7

4. 20.2

5. 20.3

6. 20.3

7. 20.3

8. 20.5

9. 21.5

10. 21.5

11. 21.6

12. 25.4

13. 28.3

14. 28.8

15. 39.6


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

doctormog
07 July 2018 07:09:48

The soil moisture drought has really ramped up in the last week, particularly in the North and West.

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1111

Click on soil moisture on the left, then anomaly

Eastern France starting to dry up too, but this was before the deluge of the last 2 days.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Those data tie in very well with my local observations. The grass here is very brown in many places compared with what we would normally see. Even after having water the plants and grass several times things are still very dry.

It’s interesting to see the differing effects on vegetation - while some seems to be thriving in the dry warmth others (like the grass) is really suffering.

There were a few unsettled days here in mid June (14th-21st) but apart from that it had been dry since mid-May. 


Rob K
07 July 2018 09:39:09
The good thing about grass is it always bounces back after a bit of rain. Down here it goes brown almost every year and is none the worse for it. This year it’s really looking 1976-esque, though (the year before I was born, but I’ve seen the photos!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
07 July 2018 09:46:57

I think a few hill side fires might break out in Southern England tomorrow

Chart image

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The good thing about grass is it always bounces back after a bit of rain. Down here it goes brown almost every year and is none the worse for it. This year it’s really looking 1976-esque, though (the year before I was born, but I’ve seen the photos!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

08 July 2018 09:00:15

Latest blog from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Due to the wet spring in the south, aquifer and reservoir levels are currently in good shape. River levels are starting to get a bit low in some western and northern areas.

https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/blogs/uk-hydrological-status-update-early-july-2018

johncs2016
08 July 2018 15:04:08

Here in Edinburgh, we are now into day 18 of the latest official absolute drought at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh and even here, I can see the effects of this lack of rainfall just about everywhere I go now as the grass has now gone into more of a yellow/brown colour in quite a lot of places.

This is despite the rainfall figures for June coming out as just very slight below average here. However, most of this actually fell in just one single overnight period where over 30 mm of rain was dumped upon us by just one single low pressure system. I doubt that this would be enough to get through in the manner in which it is actually needed and so, we can more or less say that it's been dry since the second half of April here.

EDIT:

The gardens in this part of the world desperately need some rain now to the point where I had to decide whether or not, this need was greater than my own need for England to be beaten in the World Cup, it would be difficult to choose between them just now.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Joe Bloggs
08 July 2018 15:34:11

I’ve never known the grass round here to look so brown/dead!

Virtually unheard of in these parts. 

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 15:50:35

I’ve never known the grass round here to look so brown/dead!

Virtually unheard of in these parts. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Same here in Higher Blackley only grass that is still green is grass heavily shaded by trees or buildings.


youtube page:My You tube page 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2018 21:26:25
A few young trees around us are starting to get stressed and turn leaf colour. I’ve seen some newly planted ones around that are completely dead. Have been watering the Robinia in our garden which was startling to look the worse for wear, and a young magnolia in the front which I think we caught just in time.

Unusual to see this so early in the season. It happens from time to time in August - I remember late August 2003, when most small trees (and of course all birches) were in full autumn glory.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 04:45:47

I’ve never known the grass round here to look so brown/dead!

Virtually unheard of in these parts. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I've been here since 1991 and I don't ever recall everything being as scorched up as it is at the moment, not even in 1995. The south side of Winter Hill looks very different, quite brown (black in places!) compared to it's normal green. It's like living in Essex!

 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 06:39:49

I’ve never known the grass round here to look so brown/dead!

Virtually unheard of in these parts. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Even in 76, when we'd done a house move from Manchester to Maidstone at Whitsun but I was doing a weekend commute to finish off the job up north, Manchester remained quite green with average temps when Kent was totally brown and sweltering.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 15:54:43

All the cornfields around here look bleached rather than golden.  I have to wonder if the crops are totally ruined.  Other crops are still being irrigated and have been since April, which was also quite dry here. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2018 21:35:36
Even the Isle of Man was looking completely parched today. Airport looked like something out of a Greek island.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2018 07:54:51

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hosepipe-ban-manchester-when-why-14884841

This in the Manchester Evening News, I did wonder what was happening over the hills where the resovoirs are.


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Joe Bloggs
10 July 2018 08:32:06

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hosepipe-ban-manchester-when-why-14884841

This in the Manchester Evening News, I did wonder what was happening over the hills where the resovoirs are.

Originally Posted by: Jake 

Still too early to say whether we’ll get any meaningful rainfall next week. 

It’s certainly possible. 

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2018 08:38:56

 

Still too early to say whether we’ll get any meaningful rainfall next week. 

It’s certainly possible. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Its bone dry here. I am wondering if the roof tops are visible yet in the one which is a flooded village back in 1995 apparently they were visible. They do look pretty low from the pics. I am in Higher Blackely so North Manchester towards Rochdale and Oldham.


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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2018 08:53:19

 

Still too early to say whether we’ll get any meaningful rainfall next week. 

It’s certainly possible. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

One way to guarantee rainfall is to arrange for a TV interview to be done at a dried up reservoir. These are traditionally carried out in the pouring rain :)


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Jiries
10 July 2018 09:39:05

 

Its bone dry here. I am wondering if the roof tops are visible yet in the one which is a flooded village back in 1995 apparently they were visible. They do look pretty low from the pics. I am in Higher Blackely so North Manchester towards Rochdale and Oldham.

Originally Posted by: Jake 

I remember in the late 80's drought they show lot of houses appeared when water levels dropped and taking the domestic flight from Heathrow to Leeds I see lot of lakes almost dried up as you can see more shorelines around it.

Stormchaser
10 July 2018 10:02:30

There's an emerging theme in the model output of heavy, quite slow-moving showers on an increasing number of days.

Friday's been looking more and more capable of producing a fair few of those across E&W, and Monday onward shows some decent potential at least for a couple of days. Always that hit-and-miss characteristic though (organised frontal rain is now looking to be restricted to the NW, if even there).

So the parched look to our lands may take on a more patchwork look by the middle of next week if the models are heading along the right lines. 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2018 10:17:11

 

I remember in the late 80's drought they show lot of houses appeared when water levels dropped and taking the domestic flight from Heathrow to Leeds I see lot of lakes almost dried up as you can see more shorelines around it.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

it was the same thing up here in 1995 apparently!


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